After Latest Loss Can Clemson Tigers Still Reach ACC Championship Game?

A deep dive into how the Clemson Tigers can still reach the ACC championship game in Charlotte next month.

Nov 2, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney in a team huddle during the fourth quarter against the Louisville Cardinals at Memorial Stadium. / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

The Clemson Tigers controlled their own destiny for the ACC Championship Game — that is, until their loss to Louisville on Saturday.

Now, the Tigers (6-2, 5-1 in ACC) are in need of some help. But, just how much help do they need? Let’s dig in.

First, the Tigers are now a game behind both Miami (9-0, 5-0) and SMU (8-1, 5-0) in the race. Assuming all three teams keep winning, there is nothing the Tigers will be able to do. It will be Miami vs. SMU in Charlotte for the ACC title and the berth in the College Football Playoff.

So, the first step is simple. The Tigers need to win their remaining two ACC games against Virginia Tech and Pitt, and then they need both Miami and SMU to each lose one league game.

In doing so it creates a three-way tie at the top. It also eliminates one-loss Pitt from consideration, because the Panthers would have losses to both Clemson and SMU.

Then comes the hard part — can the Tigers win in a three-way tiebreaker?

Well, to get there you have to blow through some tiebreakers that don’t apply because, well, these three teams don’t play one another.

So, head-to-head doesn’t work. But common games does and that is the next tiebreaker.

Well, time to check the schedules. And this is why Clemson’s loss to Louisville is so crippling.

The next tiebreaker after head-to-head is common games, and the ACC tiebreaker rules are clear. Common games are common to all of the teams involved in the tiebreaker. It can’t be common to just two. So for example, you can’t use Virginia, as the Cavaliers were an opponent of Clemson and SMU but not Miami.

So, a review of all three schedules yields two common opponents to all three teams — Florida State and Louisville. And all three teams have played FSU and Louisville. The records?

Miami — 2-0

SMU — 2-0

Clemson — 1-1

The problem is clear. The Tigers have already lost this tiebreaker, and if they’ve lost this tiebreaker there is no reason to move on to the next one.

Clemson has put itself in a real bind. Given the tiebreaker issue, there is really only one scenario that would allow the Tigers to advance to the ACC title game.

The Tigers must win their two remaining ACC games. Then either Miami or SMU must lose two of their remaining three league games to finish at 6-2, one game behind a 7-1 Clemson, and allow the Tigers to advance.

That’s how huge Saturday’s loss really was for Clemson.