CFP Path: Does Clemson Need Too Much Help?

Clemson still does not control its destiny with College Football Playoff, and the Tigers are running out of time to move into a more favorable position.

Brad Senkiw | Nov 25, 2022

Jason Priester/All Clemson

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Clemson still does not control its destiny with College Football Playoff, and the Tigers are running out of time to move into a more favorable position.

The playoff committee hasn't been exactly impressed with Clemson since the Notre Dame loss, despite a pair of blowout wins over No. 24 Louisville and Miami. The No. 8 Tigers moved up just one spot in this week's rankings as Tennessee dropped from fifth to 10th.

Clemson sits behind a pair of two-loss SEC teams: No. 7 Alabama and No. 5 LSU. With the SEC Tigers just one spot from the top 4, it's easy to believe that if they upset Georgia in the conference title game next week, LSU will be the first two-loss team in the CFP.

There might even still be a path for Alabama, but that would take total chaos.

If Clemson wins out, including an ACC Championship Game victory over North Carolina on Dec. 3, then the Tigers would have a huge data point over the Crimson Tide that would likely lead to finally jumping...at least in theory.

The Tigers were pretty convincing against Miami while Alabama shut out FCS opponent Austin Peay in a game that didn't change anything for the Crimson Tide.

Meanwhile, LSU took care of UAB, so no real data point gain there.

What's hard to understand about the committee's rankings is the common opponent between LSU and Clemson. That's one of the loose guidelines they say they use. FSU beat LSU on a neutral site. Clemson beat the Seminoles in Tallahassee.

Yet the ACC Tigers sit well behind the SEC Tigers, who also lost to Tennessee by 27 points. LSU's impressive wins are Alabama, which the committee continues to hold in high regard, and Ole Miss, but that luster is quickly coming off that win over the Rebels.

Clemson has ranked wins over FSU and Louisville while Notre Dame, which beat the Tigers by 21 points, is now ranked in the top 15.

The Irish could do Clemson a real solid by handing No. 6 USC its second loss of the season, which would all but eliminate the Trojans.

That's all just what's ahead of Clemson from teams outside the top 4. Ohio State or Michigan will have a loss from their rivalry showdown this week, and TCU is holding on to that No. 4 spot with Iowa State, which is 1-7 in Big 12 play this year.

Championship Week still holds several keys to the Tigers having a shot, but they've got to take care of South Carolina on Saturday at noon first.

If Clemson does that and beats UNC, then there will likely be several scenarios to work through, like how do the Tigers stack up against the Ohio State-Michigan loser and is Georgia inevitably making the playoff win or lose to LSU?

Right now, it still feels like too much has to happen for Clemson to be in the mix a week from Sunday.

Here are the key games Clemson hopefuls should keep an eye on during rivalry week:

NC State at No. 17 North Carolina, Friday at 3:30 p.m.
Florida at No. 16 FSU, Friday at 7:30 p.m.
No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State, Saturday at noon
Auburn at No. 7 Alabma, Saturday at 3:30 p.m.
No. 4 TCU at Iowa State, Saturday at 4 p.m.
No. 5 LSU at Texas A&M, Saturday at 7 p.m.
No. 15 Notre Dame at No. 6 USC, Saturday at 7:30 p.m.

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