CFP Path: How Does Clemson Get Back in the Hunt?

No. 10 Clemson needs chaos and winning to have a shot at the College Football Playoff. Here's a weekly look at what needs to happen and games to keep an eye on.

Jason Priester/All Clemson

No. 10 Clemson isn't completely out of the race for a College Football Playoff berth. 

But the Tigers are also very much currently on the outside looking in. The CFP committee dropped Clemson from fourth to 10th in the second release of the rankings this week. 

Heading into Saturday's 3:30 p.m. home game against Louisville, there is no room for error or another loss. That would eliminate Clemson. Even beating the Cardinals, Miami, South Carolina and likely North Carolina, which is ranked No. 15, in the ACC Championship Game might not be enough. 

There are four undefeated teams currently ahead of Clemson: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU. Then there are three one-loss teams (Tennessee, Oregon and USC) in the top eight, as well as a pair of two-loss teams (LSU and Alabama).

What's the clearest path still open to the Tigers? Well, it would take a lot of chaos. Obvioulsy Ohio State and Michigan still have to play each other so somebody is taking a loss there. 

The Vols aren't going to win the SEC East after their loss to Georiga last week, so Clemson would have a data point ahead of Tennessee if the Tigers win the ACC. That still doesn't guarantee anything, but at least it's there. 

The Pac-12 will figure itself out in the coming weeks. If USC or Oregon runs the table, therefore also winning the conference title, it's unlikely that Clemson can get past either of them. But the carnage is coming in that league. UCLA is two spots behind the Tigers, and the 8-1 Bruins still get the Trojans and possibly a rematch with the Ducks. 

For the Tigers, the Pac-12 needs to eat itself and have everybody finish with at least two losses. 

And then there's TCU, the surprise team from the competitive Big 12 that everyone from five on down is counting on to lose a game, maybe as early as Saturday at Texas. If the Horned Frogs, who are a 7-point underdog, get at least one loss, Clemson would have an argument to be above them since the committee started the Tigers ahead of TCU in the initial rankings. 

Alabama and LSU are the two teams ahead of Clemson that you'd think the Tigers can pass if they keep winning because, in the end, they'd have multiple data points over them. Unless, of course, LSU wins out, beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and potentially becomes the first two-loss team to ever make the CFP. 

Clemson doesn't want that to happen. Tennessee surely might. In fact, the Vols are the best argument to keep the Tigers out of the top four, if they are able to even work their way back up over the next three weeks. 

Despite getting game-controlled by the Bulldogs for 60 minutes, the committee loves Tennessee. They only need TCU to lose and the Big Ten to work itself out and they might just get two SEC teams in this thing for the third time. 

Obviously, the Pac-12 and ACC can put a wrench in that plan, but another loss for the Vols would clear up the entire playoff landscape and not have the committee worrying about trying to pick between one-loss conference champs and one-loss teams that didn't even play in the conference championship. 

Basically, there's so much that's out of Clemson's control, but there have been multiple teams ranked in double digits move into the top four by December. 

Lowest ranked teams at this point of season in @CFBPlayoff rankings to make playoff:

No. 13 Michigan State (2015)
No. 12 Oklahoma (2015)
No. 10 Oklahoma (2019)
No. 8 Ohio State (2014)
No. 6 Oklahoma (2018)
No. 6 Michigan (2021)

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 9, 2022

If Clemson is able to work its way back up, it'll likely be stuck in a beauty contest, and a team that's only loss right now came in blowout fashion needs a lipstick-on-a-pig kind of wins the rest of the way. It would help if UNC can run the table as well heading into the Charlotte showdown. 

Here are some intriguing games for Saturday that have CFP implications: 

• No. 7 LSU (-3.5) at Arkansas, noon
• No. 8 Alabama (-12) at No. 11 Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m.
• No. 1 Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State, 7 p.m.
• No. 25 Washington (+12.5) at No. 6 Oregon, 7 p.m. 
• No. 4 TCU (+7) at No. 18 Texas, 7:30 p.m.
• No. 15 North Carolina (+4) at Wake Forest, 8 p.m.

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