Clemson Beginning to See Through CFP Forest

Tigers will need some help, but there is a chance they could make the playoff

Jason Priester All Clemson

CLEMSON, S.C.— There is a chance the Clemson Tigers can land in the College Football Playoff, despite their loss to Notre Dame on Nov. 5.

Clemson (9-1) moved up to No. 9 in the latest CFP Ranking, which was released Tuesday night. As of right now, the Tigers path to the playoff is not totally clear, but there is a path if they can get some help along the way.

Last week, CFP Chairman Boo Corrigan said the Tigers’ loss at Notre Dame, was the lone reason for them falling from No. 4 to No. 10, and it had nothing to do with the perception of Clemson not playing up to expectations or being overvalued by the committee.

“This was in large part based on the game they played against Notre Dame and how that game went,” Corrigan said. “At the time, (they lost to) an unranked Notre Dame team that is improving and has been improving. In large case, it was the Notre Dame game itself.”

However, a lot can change in a week. What changed this week was Oregon’s loss to Washington, which knocked the Ducks from No. 6 to No. 12 in the ranking.

Oregon, who also lost to Georgia in the season-opener, was knocked out of playoff contention. That was the first domino that had to fall in the Tigers’ path to the CFP.

First, Clemson needs to win its remaining two regular season games and then beat No. 13 North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 3. The Tigers host Miami this Saturday and conclude the regular season with their annual rivalry game against South Carolina on Nov. 26.

To get in, Clemson will have to get some help. Alabama, who is No. 8, is not likely to make the CFP and will most likely be jumped by a one-loss Clemson team who will own an ACC Championship in this scenario.

USC plays at No. 16 UCLA this week and then hosts No. 18 Notre Dame in the regular season finale. If the Trojans can get past those two games, then they will most likely play another ranked opponent in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Clemson needs the No. 7 Trojans to lose just one game to leapfrog them in the ranking.

Then there is No. 6 LSU. The SEC’s Tigers are expected to lose to No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. If that does indeed happen, then LSU is gone.

Then there is the loser from the Michigan-Ohio State game. They are likely be knocked out of the playoff because, like one-loss Tennessee, they will not have a conference championship game to be compared to.

In years past, the committee has valued conference championships over teams who did not play in a conference championship game.

Then there is TCU. The Horn Frogs have a rivalry game at Baylor this weekend and then host Iowa State in the regular season finale. They will then have to play a top 15 Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Believe it or not, what is helping the Tigers and could help them later on is Florida State. The committee has FSU (7-3) No. 19 in this week’s ranking, ahead of two-loss UCF and Tulane. UCF has two wins over ranked opponents, while the Seminoles have one.

However, FSU’s one ranked win was over No. 6 LSU.

“When we looked at it as a committee, Florida State has the win over LSU, No. 6. On a head-to-head comparison, Florida State beat Louisville, UCF lost to Louisville,” Corrigan said. “Big win for UCF this past weekend against Tulane as well as earlier in the season against Cincinnati. But we really felt that the three-game stretch that Florida State went through with Wake, NC State and Clemson, since that time they've rebounded nicely including a 38-3 win over Syracuse.”

The Tigers also benefit from NC State still being ranked. However, the Wolfpack has to travel to Louisville on Saturday, and then visit UNC in the regular season finale.

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