Clemson Tigers ACC Championship Odds Suffer Major Blow During Bye Week

Week 9 was not nice to the Clemson Tigers despite them not even taking the field.

Oct 19, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Christopher Vizzina (17) throws the ball against the Virginia Cavaliers at Memorial Stadium. / Alexander Hicks-Imagn Images

The Clemson Tigers did not play in Week 9 of the college football season as they had their second bye of the season. Despite not having a game, they were still one of the biggest losers of the week.

Being idle dropped them two spots in the AP Top 25, as they are now in a tie for 11th with the Iowa State Cyclones because the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, BYU Cougars and Texas A&M Aggies all moved up.

In the AFCA Poll, they actually moved up one ranking, taking over at No. 8 thanks to the LSU Tigers losing and falling nine spots.

While Clemson still controls its destiny when it comes to a spot in the College Football Playoff, the path there will be a difficult one. They will be tested, as Week 9 saw their odds of winning the ACC Championship plummet.

The Miami Hurricanes are now the runaway favorites at 55 percent, up 8.6 percent from last week per Bill Connelly of ESPN. Their blowout victory over the Florida State Seminoles, coupled with a cakewalk schedule, has certainly complicated things for the Tigers.

Dabo Swinney and his team saw their ACC Championship odds drop to 19.6 percent, which is down 7.2 percent.

“Clemson had a bad bye week. The Tigers didn't play, but their ACC title odds slipped by a good amount, both because Miami cleared another hurdle and because upcoming road opponents Virginia Tech and Pitt both saw their SP+ ratings rise -- Pitt to 23rd, Tech to 24th -- following strong Week 9 performances. I think SP+ is still underselling the Tigers a bit, but beating Louisville (22nd in SP+) and both the Hokies and Panthers in the next three weeks is going to be quite a chore. And with SMU a projected favorite in each of its last four games, any slip-up might cost Clemson terribly,” wrote Connelly.

What many thought would be a soft conference schedule has turned into anything but that. Three opponents in a row currently in the top 25 of SP+, with two of them being on the road, would challenge any team in the nation.

Pittsburgh will play a major role in how things unfold, as they play against both SMU and Clemson. Currently, none of the Hurricanes’ remaining conference opponents have an ACC record above the .500 mark.

The Panthers and Tigers are both involved in two of the biggest remaining games in the ACC schedule in Connelly’s opinion. This race will be one to keep a close eye on, as an automatic bid and potentially an at-large selection are all going to be on the line in the coming weeks.