Clemson Tigers College Football Playoff Projections Paint Bleak Picture

Projections for the College Football Playoff are not kind for the Clemson Tigers.

Nov 23, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney and defensive tackles coordinator Nick Eason hug defensive tackle Payton Page (55) after Page returned an interception for a touchdown during the first quarter against The Citadel Bulldogs at Memorial Stadium. / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

The Clemson Tigers knew that their path to the College Football Playoff was going to be a difficult one after losing at home to the Louisville Cardinals a few weeks ago.

That loss dropped them from the ranks of undefeated teams in the ACC, meaning they no longer controlled their own destiny. The SMU Mustangs, who are undefeated in their first season in the league have already clinched their place in the championship game.

Their opponent has not yet been decided, as that will go down to the final week of the regular season. The Tigers have finished their ACC season 7-1, as they are currently tied with the Miami Hurricanes for second place.

Given the relatively straight forward path they have to the ACC Championship Game and a potential College Football Playoff berth is why Clemson remains in the “First Four Out” section of Heather Dinich’s projections.

However, their odds are slim. Defeating the South Carolina Gamecocks in their rivalry game would be a resume booster for a potential at-large bid, but some major luck will need to be involved for them to see the Hurricanes go down.

“The Tigers need Miami to lose to Syracuse to get a spot in the ACC championship game against SMU. According to ESPN Analytics, there's an 81% chance that Miami will win and face SMU in the ACC title game. Clemson will end its regular season against rival South Carolina, and a win against the Gamecocks would boost the Tigers' playoff résumé if they got into the ACC title game and were fighting for an at-large spot as the league's runner-up. If Clemson loses to South Carolina, though, it would be eliminated if it also loses in/doesn't make the ACC title game,” Dinich wrote at ESPN.

If Dabo Swinney’s crew wants to have any hope of advancing, they need to handle business on Saturday in Death Valley. A win over their red-hot SEC foes would have them knocking right on the door of an at-large bid.

It would be interesting to see how the committee handled that. Would there be enough for the Tigers to jump the ACC Championship Game loser, given that tiebreakers were involved, not head-to-head matchups; SMU, Miami and Clemson didn’t face each other in the regular season.

There are a lot of variables at play and things to keep an eye on.

But, the No. 1 goal for Swinney and his team this weekend remains crystal clear; they have to win. A loss would take them out of the running, especially if Syracuse cannot pull the upset off against the Hurricanes.