How Clemson's Odds for the College Football Playoff Took Major Hit

There is one thing that stood out among the reasons why the Clemson Tigers' odds of making the College Football Playoff lowered drastically.

Nov 16, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) runs on his way to scoring a game winning fifty-yard touchdown during the fourth quarter to defeat the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

It was not very long ago that the Clemson Tigers looked to have an inside track to the College Football Playoff.

Even if they were unable to win the ACC Championship, losing to either the Miami Hurricanes or SMU Mustangs in that contest, they could have snagged an at-large bid. Now, nothing is in their control.

After losing to the Louisville Cardinals, Dabo Swinney’s team is likely at the mercy of tiebreakers. Currently tied for second with the Hurricanes, unless Miami or SMU suffer two ACC losses before the regular season ends, the Tigers will be relying on win percentages as part of conference tiebreakers.

“The Tigers get a tuneup against The Citadel before a big rivalry game against South Carolina, and they'll need either Miami (once) or SMU (twice) to slip up to get into the ACC championship game. The Louisville loss appears likely to keep them out of both the conference title game and CFP,” wrote Bill Connelly of ESPN.

How did it get to this point? Just a month ago, Clemson’s odds to make the playoff sat at 40.3 percent. With each passing week and victory, their odds improved as they would have a shot to play into the field with a conference title.

However, their odds of making the playoff have been cut in half since. What has led to their current odds of 20.1 percent chance? In the opinion of Connelly, it is the team’s offense finding its ceiling at an inopportune time.

“Clemson and LSU have followed different paths with different schedule strengths. Following a meek loss to Georgia in Week 1, Clemson averaged 48.5 points during a six-game winning streak that transformed the season. But the Tigers have scored just 21, 24 and 24 points since, never topping 4.9 yards per play. They couldn't keep up with Louisville in a 33-21 home loss in Week 10, and they needed excellent defense to buy time before the offense finally came through against both Virginia Tech and Pitt.”

Coming into the season, excellent defensive efforts were expected for Clemson. Throughout Swinney’s tenure with the program, they have been known for stellar play on that side, keeping opponents off the scoreboard with regularity.

With the defense not as dominant as in years past, the offense did pick up the slack. But, it fell short against the Cardinals, which was their second loss of the season, derailing their CFP hopes.

The offensive shortcomings can’t even be pinned down on one thing specifically. It has been messy the last few weeks across several facets.

“The culprit has been something different each time. First, it was a complete lack of big plays (101 snaps, zero gains of 25-plus yards) against Louisville. Then it was dreadfully poor pass efficiency (16-for-34 with an interception) against Virginia Tech. Against Pitt the negative plays were endless -- the Panthers made 14 TFLs, and of Clemson's 58 net rushing yards, 50 came on Cade Klubnik's shocking, game-winning touchdown run.”

There is still some hope of earning a spot in the ACC Championship Game, but it is slim. That loss to Louisville is one Swinney and his staff will remember for a while, as it could be the game that defines their 2024 campaign.