Odds and Ends: Bevy of Factors to Consider When Betting Clemson-NC State

Weather, health, history, stakes and matchups have loomed large throughout the week in No. 10 NC State vs. No. 5 Clemson at Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m.

© Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY NETWORK

There are a plethora of factors that go into picking a game, whether it's straight up or against the spread. 

Weather, health, history, stakes and matchups can play roles to varying degrees. All of those factors have loomed large throughout the week in the matchup between No. 10 NC State and No. 5 Clemson at Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m.

The Tigers (4-0, 2-0 ACC) are a 6.5-point favorite over the Wolfpack (4-0, 0-0). The game total is set at 44.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Let's take a quick look at how each of those factors applies to this ACC Atlantic Division showdown: 

Weather: Hurricane Ian was supposed to bring heavy rains and winds to the Upstate of South Carolina, but as the storm shifted east and moved through the Carolinas quicker than expected, the forecast changed greatly. Conditions around game time are expected to be dry with winds under 5 mph. And since there was no saturation of the field, Mother Nature shouldn't really impact this game at all. The point total going from as low as 39.5 up to 44.5 has reflected that. 

Health: Clemson is nursing several injuries to defensive players that could affect the performance of the unit. Cornerbacks Sheridan Jones and Malcolm Greene, safety Andrew Mukuba and defensive end Xavier Thomas were out last week when Wake Forest threw for over 300 yards. Dabo Swinney has played this week's availability close to the vest, and the roster update won't be released until a little over an hour before kickoff, so it's hard to know what to expect, but Clemson really needs those guys. 

History: These two teams have plenty of history, but from a head-to-head angle, as well as betting trends, things get even more interesting. There have been some close calls, but Clemson hasn't lost to NC State in Death Valley since 2002. The Wolfpack have only won twice in the series since 2003 (2011, 2021). They've also never been in a game of this magnitude while the Tigers are regulars under this kind of pressure. As for betting trends, NC State has a much greater edge. The Wolfpack are 6-0 against the spread following an against the spread loss. NC State is 5-2 ATS against Clemson in the last seven meetings. And the Tigers are just 5-11 ATS since the start of last season, including 1-3 so far this year.  

Stakes: So much is on the line in this one. Both teams believe they can win the Atlantic and the ACC title. With Wake Forest already suffering a loss, the winner of this game is in a great position. Florida State and Syracuse, the other two undefeated teams in the division, play Clemson and NC State in October. The Wolfpack believe after last year's double-overtime win that they have turned the corner against the Tigers in the series, and NC State is trying to assert new dominance. Clemson isn't ready to give up anything to the Wolfpack and is out for revenge from a year ago. 

Matchups: Clemson's defensive front vs. NC State's run-heavy offense and preseason ACC Player of the Year in quarterback Devin Leary are worth tuning into. Neither the Tiger pass rush nor Leary has put up eye-popping numbers, but that could change on the big stage. The Clemson secondary is coming off a rough outing, and NC State will challenge them down the field and with versatile receiver Thayer Thomas. On the other side, this is by far the best defense, which is giving up the second-fewest yards per play in the ACC, with its exotic coverages and physicality that Clemson's confident offense, which is averaging a second-most 43.8 points per game in the league, has seen all season. Special teams are an important facet to pay attention to on both sides, and Clemson kicker BT Potter could be a difference maker on a night like this. 

There is so much to consider when picking a side here, even the crowd, which will create an intense atmosphere. With the spread set at less than a touchdown, some bettors will instantly back the underdog in what feels like a fairly even matchup. Then again, Clemson has played in 26 top-10 matchups. This is NC State's first. The Tigers have improved on offense from a year ago, and the Wolfpack haven't been challenged this year. 

As for the market, well, there hasn't been a real sign of a stand for either side as the spread has fluctuated only slightly between 6.5 and 7 throughout the week. The total, which has gone under in six of the last seven meetings at Memorial Stadium, was hit hard when the weather looked poor and has now bounced back to a more suitable range. 

Betting picks

Spread: NC State

Total: Over

Best bet (1-3): Clemson had no business covering last week yet the Tigers were a batted two-point conversion pass away from doing so. Wake Forest played really well and Clemson gave up way too many big plays on defense to win by more than seven. This week is a much tougher call so let's stay away from a tight spread and total that hasn't had a very telling market. Instead, let's ride Clemson's running back to some juicy odds. Will Shipley to score 2 or more touchdowns at +270 is this week's top play. Shipley has found the end zone seven times in four games, including two in each of the first three games. He's got a little extra motivation against NC State, and when the Tigers, who are perfect in the red zone this season, get close, they'll give Shipley every opportunity to score multiple times. 

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