Odds and Ends: Bounce-Back Angle Favors Clemson in ACC Title Game

No. 9 Clemson is favored by 7.5 points over No. 23 North Carolina in tonight's ACC Championship Game, and it's hard to judge what you're going to get from either side.

Brad Senkiw | Dec 3, 2022

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The ACC Championship Game isn't the marquee event of this evening.

Not in college football's championship week and not in the betting market. According to Action Network, nearly 70% of the bets on this game are on No. 23 North Carolina, but No. 9 Clemson has been favored by 7.5 points the entire week. The line won't move.

Maybe that's because shifting down a half-point would hit a key number of 7. Or maybe there just isn't enough big-time action or interest to force a line move.

Regardless, the ACC title game, which starts at 8 p.m. at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C., still has merit in terms of value, but there are reasons why this might not be easy for bettors to get on board.

For starters, nobody knows what you're going to get. Last week, the Tigers (10-2 overall) struggled offensively in the second half, a recurring theme, and turned the ball over too many times, another recurring theme, in a loss to South Carolina.

The Tar Heels (9-3) weren't any better. They dropped their second consecutive game in a double-OT loss to NC State. They don't look like the same offense that was rolling through most of the regular season and making QB Drake Maye a Heisman Trophy candidate.

Neither team is instilling much confidence; both are 6-6 against the spread this season. And with no College Football Playoff implications on the line, it's hard to judge what kind of effort you'll see in the game.

But there is one interesting angle worth exploring. Clemson has shown the ability to really rebound after a loss under Dabo Swinney. There haven't been a ton of these situations, which is one reason why Clemson has been good in them.

When the Tigers dropped their first game of the season at Notre Dame, they responded with a 31-16 victory over Lousiville, easily covering a 6.5-point line as the favorite.

Last season, when Clemson lost three games during the regular season, the Tigers won the next game straight up the following week. They were unable to cover a huge 51-point spread against SC State the week after losing the opener to Georgia in 2021, and they didn't cover a big line against Boston College the week after losing at NC State in double-OT. But Clemson did beat FSU by 10 and covered the week after dropping a game at Pittsburgh.

In fact, Clemson hasn't lost back-to-back games since 2011. Of course, covering the spread is different, but the Tigers do have a good track record in bounce-back performances.

Trends are great and all, but how does Clemson win this game comfortably enough to get over the number? It might come down to the Tigers' defense more than the offense.

Sure, you'd think the Tigers could just line up and run all day on UNC, but the Tar Heels are going to load the box and dare Clemson to see if the struggling receivers can beat an also-struggling secondary. So the Tigers might have to hit at least a few big passing plays, which has been a tall task at times, to win.

The Clemson defense, though, has to stop UNC's run game. NC State held the Tar Heels to 2.9 yards per carry last week. That put too much pressure on Maye and the passing game and they really never got on track.

If Clemson, which is one of the top-10 defenses in the nation on third and fourth downs, can put the Tar Heels in enough difficult third-down situations, the Tigers can get off the field and allow the offense to wear down UNC's front.

Of course, Clemson can't turn the ball over at the rate that it has been or any valid point or stat becomes moot.

Betting picks

Spread: UNC

Total: Over

Best bet (5-7): We got another easy win with DJ Uiagalelei's rushing total easily going over last week. Now, in championship mode, let's bang the total. UNC is giving up over 30 points per game and ranks in the 100s nationally. Both offenses are top-30 in scoring. And it with turnovers being a factor, it wouldn't be shocking to see a defensive score in the game. That always helps get past the number, so let's take OVER 63.5 points tonight.

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