Odds and Ends: Clemson Faces Huge Number vs. Struggling Miami

No. 9 Clemson, a nearly 19-point favorite, hasn't exactly been trustworthy this year when it comes to betting lines, but .500 Miami is just 2-8 against the spread this season.

Jason Priester/All Clemson

No. 9 Clemson hasn't exactly been trustworthy this year when it comes to betting lines. 

The Tigers are 5-5 against the spread, despite going 9-1 overall on the season. The offense has had some turnover and efficiency issues, especially lately, leading to two non-covers in the last three games.

But this week feels different. Miami comes to Memorial Stadium for a 3:30 p.m. game unranked and sitting at .500 overall. The Hurricanes have only covered the spread twice in 10 games. 

They bounced back last week from a blowout loss to FSU to beat an interim-coach-led Georgia Tech team 35-14, but this season has been a failure for a Miami squad that was picked to win the ACC Coastal Division. 

That's why Clemson enters this matchup as an 18.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The spread has moved just a little since opening up on Sunday, but this line feels about right. 

The Tigers have yet to put together a complete, four-quarter effort. They bounced back from the lone loss at Notre Dame two weeks ago with a 31-16 win over Lousiville at home last Saturday. 

Miami feels like a team Clemson can do that against if they take the Hurricanes seriously. All Miami has to play for is a spoiler to the Tigers' season. A loss would officially eliminate Clemson from the College Football Playoff. 

How do the Tigers avoid that fate and how do they blow out Miami? It's going to take a strong run game on offense and finally cutting down on turnovers. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney can't figure out why his team has turned the ball over eight times in the last three games, but that's exactly how you don't cover spreads. 

Banking on the Tigers playing a clean game is hard to do, which means Miami is worth considering against the spread. But can the Hurricanes, who went nine quarters without scoring a touchdown before getting one early against GT last week, inflict damage on a Clemson defense that might've gotten its groove back against Louisville?

The Hurricanes are only averaging 25.7 points per game (84th nationally) but have Clemson preparing for three different quarterbacks. Still, Miami ranks 111th in EPA per rush and 69th in EPA per pass. 

They do play better on the other side of the ball. Clemson will need to protect QB DJ Uiagalelei against a defense that has produced 34 sacks and 76 tackles for a loss. 

It'll also be important for the Tigers to take advantage of scoring opportunities inside the 40-yard line if they are to cover this line. That was easier to do earlier in the season, but Clemson ranks 15th in net points per drive. 

If the Tigers can get after freshman QB Jacurri Brown, not give the ball away and hit a few explosive plays, covering the spread is within reach. 

The game total is set at 47.5 points, so oddsmakers aren't expecting a ton of scoring. 

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson -18.5

Total: Over

Best bet (4-6): Despite a last-second touchdown by Louisville, we easily hit the under last week. This game is a little tougher to find value. It's an awfully low total, but the weather isn't going to be poor, just a little chilly. That might affect the boys from South Florida more than Clemson, but this could fall very close to the number. The Tigers aren't a covering machine, but Miami is awful against the spread, so good luck figuring that out. So let's think outside the box and take Antonio Williams to score a touchdown at +140. The Clemson receiver has caught a TD in two of the last four games, and he's become the go-to pass-catcher in this offense. Beaux Collins potentially being back only boosts this play as he'll get Miami's attention and allow Williams to be a tough matchup in the slot.  

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