Odds and Ends: Clemson Faces Tricky Spread in Home Opener Against Furman

No. 5 Clemson is a 44.5-point favorite against an FCS team. Is that big spread worth playing? There's actually a more advantageous play.

© Ken Ruinard/USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

Games between FBS and FCS teams aren't big-time betting attractions. 

The spreads are typically the highest you'll see all week. The totals don't correlate well with the sides and there aren't usually prop bet options. 

So sportsbooks don't release them until very late in the week. It also helps them be protected if they hang a number that a favorite easily crushes because of the level of competition. 

Looking at Clemson's 3:30 p.m. home opener on Saturday against a solid Furman squad shows how tricky these lines can be. The No. 5 Tigers are a 44.5-point favorite with a total set at 50.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Clemson hasn't beaten a team by that margin since defeating S.C. State 49-3 last September. But the Tigers are 1-0 against the spread after knocking off Georgia Tech 41-10 and covering the 23.5-point spread Monday night. 

Can they do it two weeks in a row? There are a few things to consider:

Weather: It's a rainy day in Death Valley. The ball will be slick. There could be a few more turnovers than normal. And playcalling might be more conservative. That said, it's not rain that usually sidetracks a passing game. It's wind, and that is expected to be around 7 mph at kickoff, so no issue there. If the Tigers and Paladins were to be more conservative, the under on the total would come into play, and Clemson might not push the offense to score a ton of points. 

Clemson's offense: Speaking of that scoring attack, the Tigers got off to a decent start against the Yellow Jackets, but they didn't exactly blow the doors off anything either. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei will get the start. Backup freshman Cade Klubnik will see snaps, but it's unclear if he'll get any run with the first team. Coaches refuse to call this a QB battle, but they do seem to want to give both guys opportunities in the passing game. If successful, that could lead to a lot of big plays and points scored against a lesser athletic and talented team. 

Run game: Clemson didn't fully commit to pounding the football with its three-headed monster at running back in Week 1, but if that changes, the Tigers should still be capable of getting into the end zone a handful of times, if not more, just in the ground game. Will Shipley, Kobe Pace and Phil Mafah will likely get more touches this week than last, but Clemson will also look at Domonique Thomas and Keith Adams Jr. in the backfield. 

Clemson's defense: It's as nasty as the weather. The Tigers aren't going to likely give up any points when the first team is on the field. They held GT to 237 yards total yards, including just 73 allowed via the run game. Furman is going to want to pound the football with its spread running attack, but holes will be hard to come by because the Tigers go at least three-deep up front with talent and experience. Despite the stat above, a shutout isn't improbable against this fierce unit, so plan accordingly. 

Everybody plays: The Tigers will probably set a new record for player participation on Saturday. Dabo Swinney will likely unload the bench in Clemson's lone game against an FCS foe, and he likes to build depth and reward reserves for their efforts in practice. That means a lot of inexperience, especially on defense, will be on the field late in the game, when the Tigers might be trying to secure the cover. This might be the biggest factor in deciding how to play this game from a sports betting standpoint. 

Opponent's scoring: Clemson has only shut out an FCS team twice in the Dabo Swinney era, which began in 2008 when he took over as interim head coach. The Tigers blanked S.C. State in 2016 and The Citadel in 2020, the COVID-19 season. Furman, a proud program that's eyeing a run at the Southern Conference title this year, has scored in each of their last three visits to Memorial Stadium. One touchdown with a spread that high can kill a favorite covering. 

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson

Total: Over 50.5

Best bet (0-1): Picking Shipley to rush for more than 80.5 yards didn't work out Monday night as he had just 42 yards on 10 carries. That wasn't enough touches to hit the number as the Tigers opted for a lot more passing. On to this week, and let's roll the dice that the rain won't hamper the offensive game plans. Clemson has a lot of hungry players who want to do well, and Furman will strive to get points on the board. The Paladins should be respected and have a deep offense themselves, so take OVER 50.5 points with confidence in Week 2. Clemson will hit some big plays and get chunk yards to reach close to 50 by themselves. Furman will do the rest with at least a field goal if not a touchdown. That's enough to cash this one. 

Want to join in on the discussion? 100% FREE! Interact with fellow Tiger fans and hear directly from publisher Zach Lentz, deputy editor Brad Senkiw, recruiting analyst Jason Priester and staff writer Will Vandervort on any subject. Click here to become a member of the ALL CLEMSON message board community today!