Odds and Ends: Clemson Looks to Continue Covering Ways vs. Gamecocks

No. 8 Clemson is a 14.5-point favorite over rival South Carolina, and the Tigers have covered four of the last five meetings by an average of 14.9 points per game.

Jason Priester/All Clemson

No. 8 Clemson hasn't been an underdog in the rivalry series with South Carolina since 2013. 

And the Tigers have been a heavy, double-digit favorite in every game since the 2015 meeting. South Carolina has covered the spread just twice during that span. 

Clemson has won by an average margin of victory of 31.8 points in the last five matchups, and the Tigers have covered four of those games by an average of 14.9 points per contest. 

Will recent history repeat itself when the in-state schools renew their rivalry at noon on Saturday with the Tigers a 14.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel?

Clemson is 6-5 against the spread, covering the last two games by 19.5 points combined. The Gamecocks are also 6-5 against the spread and 3-2 as an underdog this season. 

But picking a side isn't about just studying the past. That's the easy part. Determining the future and which team you're going to get from both of them is harder to dissect. 

Clemson's defense has found its groove since getting embarrassed at Notre Dame on Nov. 5. The Tigers have allowed 21 points combined in the last two games, thanks to improved linebacker play. But it's the offense that's hard to figure out. 

Clemson has committed 12 turnovers in the last four games. It's impossible to predict if that rash of miscues continues, but it's hard to be against at the same time. If the offense didn't shoot itself in the foot, the Tigers would probably have scored more than 40 points in each of the last two games and would be considered on a hot streak. 

The Gamecocks are coming off their best win of the Shane Beamer era, a complete dismantling of then-No. 5 Tennessee's defense. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler threw for 437 yards and six touchdowns in a surprising 63-38 victory last week. 

The week before that, the Gamecocks lost 38-6 at Florida and scored their only touchdown on a fake punt. Did something really click against the Vols or will South Carolina look more like the team that still ranks 78th in total offense?

It's basically 10 games of futility vs. one with a ton of explosive plays against a Tennessee defense that wasn't able to get to Rattler. If he can escape Clemson's pressure or get rid of the ball, he might have some success against a pass defense that ranks outside the top 50. 

Clemson can and will certainly try to do that with a bevy of blitzes and a stellar defensive front. The Tigers rank 17th nationally in sacks and 26th in defensive success rate. 

The Clemson offense led by QB DJ Uiagalelei and RB Will Shipley could have some success against a Gamecock defense that ranks 114th in success rate. South Carolina especially struggles against the run. 

One of the biggest keys to the game and who covers the spread is if one team can get off to a hotter start than the other. Clemson has been pretty good offensively early in games when it runs its scripted plays. 

It's when the offense bogs down or turns the ball over that's made it difficult to keep it going. 

South Carolina relies heavily on getting out to a positive start, and falling behind on the road at Memorial Stadium in the first quarter would likely be disastrous, especially if that Clemson defense is teeing off on Rattler. It can produce turnovers of its own. 

The crowd could certainly be a factor, even though it's an early game. The Tiger faithful haven't been able to cheer against their rival in Death Valley since 2018 because the 2020 matchup was canceled because of COVID-19. 

It'll be a hostile environment for a South Carolina team that's 1-6 against the spread on the road vs. a team with a winning record. 

Clemson is 4-1 against the spread in its last five November games.  

The game total is set at 51.5. The under has hit in eight of the last 11 meetings. 

Be sure to check the roster update story Saturday morning. Clemson is looking to get receiver Beaux Collins and DT Bryan Bresee back this week while the Gamecocks are hopeful that running backs Marshawn Lloyd and Christian Beal-Smith return from injuries this game as well. 

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson 

Total: Over

Best bet (4-7): We took another shot on a plus-odds bet that Antonio Williams would score a touchdown last week and we came up short. Let's end the regular season on a bright note. Clemson is better when it makes a concerted effort to run Uiagalelei. He led the team in rushing with 89 yards, and he's averaging 45 yards per game on the ground. Uiagalelei will be a factor with his legs against a struggling Gamecock defense. Let's take Uiagalelei OVER 36.5 rushing yards. 

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