Odds and Ends: Is Lightly-Favored Clemson in for a Dogfight at FSU?

Previewing No. 4 Clemson and Florida State with a spread that has been all over the place this week, plus the best bet in this ACC Atlantic showdown at 7:30 p.m.

The history of the betting line between Clemson and Florida State has been challenging to understand.  

What once began as Tigers -7.5 on Sunday quickly fell to -3.5 by Monday afternoon. By Saturday morning, it had pushed back up to FSU +4.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.  

It's pretty clear that professional bettors love the Seminoles while public backers can't resist a more favorable line for the fourth-ranked Tigers. After all, Clemson has dominated this series as of late, winning and covering the spread in the previous four meetings. 

The Tigers (6-0 overall, 3-0 ACC) are also 4-1 against the spread in the last five trips to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, the site of the 7:30 p.m. ACC Atlantic showdown with FSU (4-2, 2-2). 

Clemson has picked up a little confidence this season among the betting community after covering in three of the first six games, including last week at Boston College at a 21-point favorite. The offense averaging 39.3 points per game is a big reason for that.

The Seminoles, meanwhile, are 4-2 against the spread and found a way to get under the number last week at NC State in their second consecutive straight-up loss. Three of their six games have been decided by less than a touchdown, so maybe that's how handicappers see this matchup as well?

For Clemson to cover, it's likely going to come down to the run, both churning yards and stopping them. The Tigers have been exceptional at the latter, ranking second in the nation in yards per rush allowed. FSU ranks 25th in rushing yards per game, but starting running back Treshaun Ward is banged up.

On the flip side, Clemson is just above average at 54th nationally in rushing yards per game, but the Tigers rank 34th in rushing success rate. The Seminoles have given up the 88th most rushing yards per game this season. 

Clemson will need to take advantage of that, and likely will. That could lead to a lower-scoring game if head coach Dabo Swinney stays conservative on the road in a tough environment. Then again, the Tigers have had success taking shots in the passing game behind quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. 

Florida State is getting healthier on defense, which could help slow Clemson down, but the Seminoles are going to rely heavily on the emotions of playing at home in front of a packed crowd at Bobby Bowden Field. 

Speaking of healthy, Clemson's defense is as close to full strength as it's been all season, and they'll need to be because FSU has the ability to challenge the Tigers, who rank 95th in passing yards allowed per game.

Throwing on Clemson's secondary and getting pressure on Uiagalelei are the keys for FSU to come out of this game with a cover and possibly a win. Nobody's been able to knock off the Tigers yet this season, but this is as big a road test as they've seen since pre-COVID-19.  

Betting picks

Spread: N/A

Total: Under

Best bet (2-4): Last week was a nice win taking Clemson against the spread. This week, no thank you. We aren't going anywhere near that line that's been bet all over the place. There are more enticing options than sweating out a spread that you might lose on but your buddy cashes, depending on when you both got it. Instead, let's look at the game total. It's gone from 48.5 to 51.5 on Saturday morning. That feels like a public move. The under is 6-1 in FSU's last seven games following a loss and 5-0 in games against teams with a winning record. For Clemson, the under is 4-1 in the Tigers' last five road games and 4-0-1 coming off an against-the-spread win. This has been bet up to high, giving us value on the UNDER 51.5.

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