Odds and Ends: Is the Orange Bowl the Right Time to Back Clemson?

Breaking down the betting line, motivation, roster availability and the strengths and weaknesses for Clemson and Tennessee heading into the Orange Bowl showdown.

Brad Senkiw | Dec 30, 2022

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When trying to predict bowl games, there are several critical factors to take into account.

Let's see how those apply to today's Orange Bowl, where No. 7 Clemson is a 6.5-point favorite over the No. 6 Vols, according to FanDuel.

Motivation

Both Clemson (11-2) and Tennessee (10-2) should very much have the needed "want to" when it comes to a December postseason game. No, it's not the College Football Playoff, something both teams were in the mix to make before both lost to South Carolina in consecutive weeks. But that doesn't mean this game isn't important. Head coach Dabo Swinney's culture of making every game matter resonated throughout his team as all but one Tiger opted out. While Clemson has already reached 10 wins, there's the motivation of wanting to end on a high note and playing for each other, indicated by how the players have talked the entire week.

As for Tennessee, playing in a New Year's Six Bowl is unfamiliar territory. Heck, the Vols have only played in five bowls games in the last seven seasons, so this is a huge deal to be playing at Hard Rock Stadium against a top-10 team. Head coach Josh Heupel has orchestrated a fast turnaround for a program that went 3-7 in 2020. In his second year with the Vols, Heupel beat Alabama, reached No. 1 in the AP poll and won 10 games for the first time at Rocky Top since 2007. The fans want to be there. A lot of the players do too, so Clemson should get UT's best effort.

Roster availability

This factor includes opt-outs, injuries, transfers and what's left after all of that. For Tennessee, there's an obvious loss of firepower. Star quarterback Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending knee injury in late November at South Carolina. Had he remained healthy, he might've won the Heisman Trophy. Jailin Hyatt, who was named the Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation's best receiver, and Cedric Tillman, who was slowed by injuries in 2022 following his 1,000-yard season a year ago, both turned pro and opted out of the Orange Bowl. Linebacker Jeremy Banks, the team's third-leading tackler, did the same.

Clemson will miss sack leader and defensive end Myles Murphy, a potential first-round NFL draft pick who turned pro and opted out, and linebacker Trenton Simpson, who is the second-leading tackler on the team and has also entered the draft but is dealing with an ankle injury that will keep him out. With Cade Klubnik taking over at quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei, who started the previous 13 games, transferred to Oregon State and won't play, leaving the Tigers thin at a critical position. With EJ Williams in the portal and Beaux Collins out for the year with a shoulder injury, there's a lack of depth at wide receiver, too.

Strengths and weaknesses

Tennessee is the No. 1 scoring offense in the country and third best in passing, but that is primarily with Hooker. Bowl-game starter Joe Milton isn't nearly as prolific and athletic, although he possesses one of the strongest arms in college football. He can get it down the field but not always where his WR can catch it. But the Vols, one of the most up-tempo teams in the nation, will still play fast and test Clemson's ability to cover the entire field. The Tigers haven't been the dominant defense everyone expected to see all season, but they have figured some things out in the second half of the year and have big-time linemen KJ Henry, Bryan Bresee, Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro ready to go in the game. This part of the game, though, might come down to Clemson's safeties, who will have to be responsible for helping stop a good Tennessee run game but also not get caught looking in the wrong place and giving up a deep ball.

The Clemson offense is a bit of an unknown with Klubnik now running the show. Will Shipley and Phil Mafah are still as good a running back tandem as you'll find in college football, but Klubnik had only played sparingly until he was forced into action on the third drive of the ACC Championship Game. He took control and dominated a bad UNC defense. Tennessee isn't great on that side either, ranking 85th in total defense. Clemson struggled to produce explosive plays in the back half of the season under Uiagalelei, but Klubnik might be the remedy for that. The Tigers have also had a hard time with turnovers, giving the ball away 20 times, which ranks 88th nationally.

This feels like a good position to back Clemson, as the betting line moved in the Tigers' favor after the Vols' opt-outs. But the Vols were 8-3 against the spread under Hooker, and they blew out Vanderbilt 56-0 in an easy cover with Milton.

The Tigers are 7-6 against the spread this season after covering in three of their last four games.

Does Tennessee have enough on offense left to take advantage of Clemson's pass defense? Will the Tigers affect Milton enough or let him get too comfortable? Can Klubnik keep the Tigers on track and moving the chains like he did in a 39-10 win over UNC? How does he handle adversity when a play or a drive doesn't work out? And can Clemson protect the ball and not give the Vols extra opportunities?

We'll find out at 8 p.m.

Betting picks

Spread: Tennessee

Total: Under

Best bet (5-8): So the over didn't hit in the ACC Championship Game but let's end the year on a high note. The Tigers have newfound confidence from that UNC game, and while Tennessee certainly can't be taken lightly, Clemson gets the chance to showcase the future with Klubnik, who has breathed life back into this offense. Still, the Vols have so many reasons to show up and they are dangerous on offense. Clemson likely wins but taking Tennessee +6.5 is the safer play.

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