Odds and Ends: Why Lawrence is Best Pick for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Trevor Lawrence is expected to have instant success in Jacksonville.
After all, he's been compared to the likes of John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck as an NFL prospect. But the former Clemson quarterback also has odds in his favor to have a strong first year at the helm of a Jaguars squad that went 1-15 a year ago.
In fact, Lawernce is the clear-cut favorite to bring home the NFL's Rookie of the Year award. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Lawrence is listed first at +270. Chicago Bears' first-round QB pick Justin Fields, who's had a long-running rivalry with Lawrence, has nearly double the odds at +500.
One of the reasons for Lawrence's short odds is opportunity. There's no question he'll be the starting QB on Sept. 12 when the Jags open up against the Houston Texans. New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer made it clear from Day 1 that no one else is in the running. There simply is no competition. This is Lawrence's offense to run, so there's no doubt that he'll have the chance to put up the numbers needed to win the award.
The same can't be said for others, including Fields. Bears coach Matt Nagy isn't going to rush the former Ohio State QB into a starting role. The team is paying veteran Andy Dalton $10 million this season.
Potentially, New York Jets QB Zach Wilson (+700) could pose a bigger threat to Lawrence for the offensive award. He'll be the starter after the organization traded Sam Darnold to the Panthers, but the Jets still don't have many offensive weapons around Wilson.
However, he was drafted second overall behind Lawrence because he's used to be more of a one-man band. Wilson will excite the league if his prowess to keep plays alive carries over from BYU.
There are also 49ers QB Trey Lance (+750) and Patriots signal-caller Mack Jones (+950), but neither know when/if they'll get a starting opportunity in 2021.
After that, there are a ton of unknowns. It might even be likelier that a position player has a huge rookie season and overshadows Lawrence's rebuilding efforts in Jacksonville. But pinpointing who that will be is difficult.
If Lawrence doesn't get the award, it'll likely come from a group of these players:
- Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (+1200)
- Steelers running back Najee Harris (+1300)
- Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith (+1700)
- Bengals WR Jamar Chase (+1700)
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (+2200)
There are two other former Clemson players to keep an eye on as well posting some juicy odds: Jacksonville's Travis Etienne and Green Bay's Amari Rodgers.
While Etienne (+2200) will have a hard time taking the spotlight enough away from Lawrence to win the rookie award, not to mention their numbers will be directly tied to each other, the all-time leading rusher in Tiger history could impact the game in multiple ways. Meyer has worked him at receiver in mini-camps and views Etienne a little bit like a gadget player, so he could get some serious attention from voters.
Rodgers (+4500) could draw some interest from bettors because of his versatility as well. The sturdy-built receiver could also line up in the backfield, and he gives the Packers, no matter who the QB is, a type of weapon they haven't had before in the slot.
The pick: It's best to go with Lawrence here. He's already got the hype train rolling and he should put up some solid numbers. Mix in something on Pitts and Smith and it's a good recipe for cashing.
