Odds and Ends: Will Clemson Cover Large Number Vs. Georgia Tech?

Examining why Clemson is a 23.5-point favorite, how the Tigers can cover that spread and offering a "best bet" for their Week 1 matchup with the Yellow Jackets.

Clemson's 10-3 record in 2021 came with several ups and downs, but that straight-up mark has nothing on the Tigers' roller-coaster ride in the sports betting market.

This team failed to cover the spread in any of its first seven games as it dealt with injuries and inconsistencies. Then, the turnaround occurred, the Tigers figured out a sustainable run game and that number reversed. 

Clemson covered five of its last six games, won all of them straight up and reached double-digit wins for the 11th consecutive season. 

Heading into a new year, the Tigers owned the longest winning streak in Power 5. They'll look to keep that going in Monday night's 2022 opener against Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

But doing so comes with a big number. Clemson is a 23.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, over the Yellow Jackets, a line that is on the rise. At one time, the Tigers were favored by 19. So what changed?

Bettors are likely looking back at last year's success late in the season and believe that even sustaining that level gives the Tigers a shot at covering a big number. Also, the defense. It's loaded. Clemson returns a ton of production, has arguably the best front in college football and showcases the fastest, most-talented linebacker corps of the Dabo Swinney era. 

Even without former defensive coordinator Brent Venables, there's a belief this could be one of if not the best unit in America. And that's founded on strong principles. Last year, Georgia ran out one of the best defenses we've ever seen, and the Bulldogs went 14-1 overall and 10-5 against the spread. 

Are the Tigers are capable of having that kind of season, at least from a betting standpoint? 

Covering a large number against Tech would certainly instill a lot of confidence from the market moving forward.

The Yellow Jackets averaged 24 points per game a year ago but got just eight against Clemson in Death Valley. This year, they are without Jahmyr Gibbs, their top player and running back who transferred to Alabama. Jordan Yates, who started at quarterback against Clemson, also left the program, along with nearly a dozen other players.

It's hard to think Tech can get multiple touchdowns in this game if Clemson's defense lives up to its billing, even at least a little bit. Jeff Sims is a mobile QB, but he's struggled with accuracy. The Jackets' run game will take a huge step back. Efficiency and moving the chains will be problems. 

But let's be real: The Tiger offense didn't exactly set the world on fire last year, and that's where the questions about this team remain entering 2022:

• Can QB DJ Uiagalelei, the lowest-rated passer in the ACC last year, take the steps needed to make this a legit passing game? 
• Is the offensive line, which is healthy and looks much improved on paper, able to be above average? 
• Without a true alpha at wide receiver, who will emerge as a dependable playmaker? 
• Will the Tigers run it enough behind the three-headed monster in the backfield or will they strive too much for balance?

At least Clemson gets to work these issues out against the other Power 5 team from the Peach State in the opener this year. The Bulldogs wrecked the Tigers' confidence this time last season. 

To cover this number, Clemson's going to need to dominate up front, which it should do. Georgia Tech ranked 11th in run defense and 13th against the pass in the ACC last season. They since lost their top tackler and two best defensive ends. 

But Tiger bettors need the offense to do what it does well and keep the chains moving with the run game. Will Shipley is primed for a standout performance, but an offensive staff with a couple of new pieces needs to keep from getting cute. If the run works, stick with it. If GT stacks the box, somebody has to make a one-on-one play in the passing game. 

And Uiagalelei just needs to be efficient and protect the football. If those keys occur, the Tigers will easily cover this number. 

Historically speaking, this is an opponent that Clemson has dominated in recent years. The Yellow Jackets covered last year's 14-8 loss for the first time in the annual series since 2014, the same year they last won straight up. 

Betting picks

Spread: Clemson

Total: Under 50.5

Best bet (0-0): We went 7-6 in this spot last year and finished on a high note with the under in Clemson's Cheez-It Bowl win against Iowa State. With a fresh slate and a chance to start hot, let's go with a player prop. Sure, there are tons of opportunities with the side and total, but the best value is Shipley over 80.5 rushing yards at -114. The sophomore running back had 88 yards against Tech last year in just his third career game. He went over this mark five times last season and three times in the last five games, once he was relatively healthy. Despite a loaded backfield, Clemson will still feature Shipley a great deal Monday night, and he'll run behind an offensive line with something to prove. If the passing game can hit a couple of times early and soften up the Jackets' scheme, watch for Shipley to have at least one big run of over 20 yards that will help get him past this number. 

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