Updated Clemson Tigers Bowl Projection Sees Them Miss Playoffs Again

The Clemson Tigers control their own college football playoff destiny, but are not currently favored to pull it off.

Nov 30, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

The Clemson Tigers are one of the few teams around the country that control their own destiny in the college football playoff. As of right now, they are not favored to pull it off.

Senior Action Network Analyst Brett McMurphy is one of the biggest sources for college football's bowl season information. In his latest bowl game projections, the Tigers miss out on the 12-team playoff and settle for an appearance in the Holiday Bowl against the Washington State Cougars on Dec. 27.

This follows suit of the betting lines, which also see Clemson as underdogs against the SMU Mustangs heading into conference championship week.

The Holiday Bowl has a tie-in with the ACC and the Pac-12. The Cougars are the only bowl-eligible team in the Pac-12 this season.

The ACC has lost each of the last two Holiday bowls. The North Carolina Tar Heels lost in 2022 to the Oregon Ducks and the USC Trojans beat the Louisville Cardinals last season.

It is not one of the biggest bowl games around, but is one of the better options for an ACC school. The Tigers would rather finish the season in the playoffs, however.

In this scenario presented by McMurphy, Clemson would open up as 14.5 point favorites over Washington State.

The Cougars finished the season 8-4, but are currently on a three-game losing streak. They have already fired their defensive coordinator and are in serious jeopardy of losing players like quarterback John Mateer to the transfer portal.

It is fair to see why the Tigers would be considered a heavy favorite, even if they would have very similar records at this point.

Overall, Clemson is 12-7 in bowl games/playoff matches under Dabo Swinney.

Were Swinney and the Tigers to miss the playoffs this season, it would mark four years since their last appearance. Failing to do so in the first year of the expanded system would add some extra hurt.

Since the introduction of the playoff system in 2014, this is the longest stretch that Clemson has gone without an appearance.

The reluctance to adapt to the transfer portal era has had some fans annoyed at Swinney already, failing to make the postseason will only heat his seat up even more.

Before jumping to any conclusions, though, the Tigers have a chance to avoid any uncomfortable conversations by beating SMU for the ACC Championship and finally get back into the real postseason.