ACC supremacy at stake: Duke basketball versus Virginia prediction

The Duke basketball program could win its 22nd ACC Tournament championship.

Duke basketball should welcome the 23.5 hours of rest it received following Friday night's 85-78 hard-fought win over top-seed Miami in the ACC Tournament semifinals. After all, only six Blue Devils played more than five minutes in that contest, and they had to battle a Hurricanes defense that covered all 94 feet at times.

However, this banner-hunting Duke team isn't used to playing late-night games, which the No. 4 seed Blue Devils (25-8) face at 8:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN) when they square off against No. 2 seed Virginia (25-6) for the honor of cutting down the nets in Greensboro Coliseum.

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Duke has seen a tip time of 8:30 or later only twice this season (1-1 in those bouts), and the last time was on Dec. 6 (a 74-62 win over Iowa). Meanwhile, Virginia is 5-2 in such games, including Friday night's 76-56 victory over No. 3 seed Clemson, in which the Cavaliers were able to give most of their starters some rest down the stretch.

Will the long hours of anticipation prove too draining for the hungry Blue Devils psychologically before tipoff? It's possible.

Now, one could argue that no Duke basketball squad in history has grown up more during a season than Jon Scheyer's first bunch of Blue Devils. This group looks night and day from where it stood a few months back.

The Blue Devils are riding an eight-game win streak. They haven't fallen since their controversial 69-62 overtime loss to Virginia in Charlottesville precisely one month ago. And there's no doubt they're playing their best basketball of the season, with their top six players, including five rookies, all stepping up their games as of late.

Top plays from the ACC semis. Clutch buckets, strong finishes. pic.twitter.com/mjSBGQ2ksi

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 11, 2023

In addition to being an intimidating, long-limbed defensive power, the Blue Devils are suddenly formidable on offense. They have dished out 43 assists in their two ACC Tournament games while shooting a blistering 58.7 percent from the field, 45.2 percent from deep, and 79.1 percent from the charity stripe.

So it's obvious they are comfortable with the rims and sight lines in Greensboro.

Furthermore, it's worth noting that the Duke basketball program has only one ACC Tournament loss across its last five trips to the event, including this one.

Even so, the school, which boasts a record 21 ACC Tournament titles, has taken home only one trophy in that span (2019). Duke didn't play before the 2020 ACC Tournament got canceled, it had to withdraw after one win in 2021 due to a COVID-19 case within the program, and then it lost to Virginia Tech in last year's title bout.

As for the Cavaliers, despite winning at least a share of the ACC regular-season crown in six of the past 10 years, they have only two ACC Tournament titles in that span, with 2018 being the most recent.

And this Virginia squad is riding a four-game win streak, winning by an average margin of 12.8 points and never allowing over 60 points in those games.

Moreover, don't discount that the Cavaliers might be fueled by Duke's belief that it should have won their only matchup of the regular season, in which the refs should have awarded two free throws at the end of regulation to eventual ACC Rookie of the Year forward Kyle Filipowski, who ended up going scoreless in that meeting.

In other words, there's plenty of motivation on both sides.

The winner might be the league's top seed in the NCAA Tournament, with a No. 3 seed perhaps not entirely out of reach.

Prediction: Virginia 69, Duke 63

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