Duke's At Large Hopes Not Dead Yet

Blue Devils have better odds of getting bid than winning ACC Tourney

After Duke lost to North Carolina by 18 to close the regular season, the general consensus was that the Blue Devils would need to win the ACC Tournament, winning five games in five days to do so, in order to get an NCAA bid.

According to analytics site TeamRankings.com, however, that’s not the case. In fact, according to their number crunching, Duke is more likely to get an at large bid than an automatic bid.

TeamRankings calculates the Blue Devils odds of playing in this year’s tourney at 9.9 percent. The Blue Devils have a 4 percent chance of winning the ACC Tournament and a 5.9 percent chance at getting an at large bid after losing in Greensboro.

At the moment, the analytics have Duke out of the Big Dance, and wins on Tuesday and Wednesday won’t boost the odds much.

If Duke wins its first three games in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils have a 2.7 percent chance of getting a bid.

The calculations give Duke an 81.62 percent chance of getting past Boston College on Tuesday. The Blue Devils have 42.48 percent odds of getting past No. 7 Louisville on Wednesday. Beating No. 2 Florida State has a 15.65 percent chance.

In the semifinals, which could be Virginia Tech, UNC, Notre Dame or Wake, Duke has an 8.21 percent chance of advancing. If the Blue Devils do win and advance to the ACC title game, however, their odds of an at-large bid rise to 54.6 percent. And cutting down the nets in Greensboro has 3.96 percent odds for the Blue Devils.

Despite being a 10-seed, Duke has a better chance at winning the ACC Tournament than No. 8 Syracuse (3.53 percent) and No. 9 NC State (2.35 percent).