Duke basketball: Projected stat leaders for 2022-23 Blue Devils

Will any players lead Duke in multiple major statistical categories?
Duke basketball guard Jeremy Roach (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
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The roster has long been complete, and the summer intrasquad scrimmages have kicked into full gear (highlights below). As a result, Duke basketball enthusiasts are noticing more and more goosebumps while dreaming of lineup combinations and whatnot for Jon Scheyer's first year as head coach.

On that note, we'll leave the long list of intriguing potential lineups alone for now but will go ahead and predict the team's leaders in nine primary stats: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage, and minutes.

RELATED: Duke is still waiting on one player to arrive

First, for those who haven't yet checked out the scrimmage highlights, here's the first batch from a blue-white showdown inside the program's practice facility a few weeks back:

Now, here's the most recent highlight package from a scrimmage on Coach K Court last week:

Although the talent pool is deep in Durham, pairing the above highlights with what we already know about each individual from their prep careers — and, when applicable, their prior college experience — produces enough information to take a stab at this season's statistical leaders.

So let's do that now, one box-score column at a time...

Projected Duke basketball leader in points: Dariq Whitehead

Given the relatively large number of potential double-digit scorers, it's unlikely any Blue Devil will average more than 20 points per game. But if any player possesses the necessary skills to do that, that talent would probably be Dariq Whitehead.

The 6-foot-6, 190-pound reigning McDonald's All-American Game MVP swerves through traffic at a lightning pace and with a herky-jerky driving motion that is almost impossible to contain (see Kyle Filipowski getting turned around and left in Whitehead's dust in the second set of highlights above).

Whitehead seamlessly finishes with either hand, contorting his body and using the glass with fine-tuned precision, even at some of the most challenging angles imaginable.

His top-notch speed and high-level competitiveness should naturally push the Blue Devils to operate at a breakneck pace at times. On top of that, the New Jersey native has NBA-ready moves to create space for his shot, whether it be his smooth stepback 3-pointers or silky fadeaway midrange jumpers.

Put it all together, and we'll predict Dariq Whitehead paces Duke at 15.5 points per game.

Projected Duke basketball leader in rebounds: Dereck Lively II

The battle for top rebounder could be just as tightly contested, if not more so, than the battle for top scorer. Perhaps a handful of guys will anchor Duke's rebounding efforts, with each averaging four to eight boards per game, and it wouldn't be a surprise if Dariq Whitehead is in that bunch.

Ultimately, it may come down to which players snag the starting nods at power forward and center. For now, that pair is debatable as freshman Dereck Lively II, freshman Kyle Filipowski, freshman Mark Mitchell, and grad transfer Ryan Young seem in contention.

That said, one would think Lively would be the least likely of those four to begin games on the bench. After all, the 7-foot-1, 215-pound center enters the college ranks at No. 1 overall on the 247Sports 2022 Composite.

It'll be vital, of course, for Lively to stay out of foul trouble and avoid serious injuries. Yet if the Pennsylvania product can adapt quickly to the speed and physicality at this level while staying healthy, he could flirt with a double-digit rebounding average.

To be safe, let's go with a team-high 8.0 rebounds per game from Dereck Lively II.

Projected Duke basketball leader in assists: Jeremy Roach

This one should be a no-brainer unless five-star point guard Tyrese Proctor dazzles beyond belief out of the gates as a collegian.

As the only returning starter from a 2021-22 Duke basketball squad that finished 32-7 overall and reached the program's first Final Four in seven years, junior point guard Jeremy Roach is in a position to prosper as the Blue Devils' unquestioned on-court leader.

Look for the 6-foot-2, 175-pound former five-star recruit to take a massive leap, possibly the No. 1 prerequisite for Duke to do real damage again come March.

Last season, Roach finished in a tie with Paolo Banchero for second on the team with his 3.2 assists per game, trailing the 4.4 from Wendell Moore Jr.

We'll say Jeremy Roach bumps his average dimes to 5.0 this go-round.

Projected Duke basketball leader in steals: Jeremy Roach

Sticking with the theme of Jeremy Roach's paved road to emerge into a star, he must help set the tone on the defensive end for the boatload of newcomers in town.

If nothing else, Roach has shown to be a scrappy defender on the perimeter. And last season, he sometimes managed to sneak up to poke the ball away from taller players who never saw him coming while posting up in the paint.

Plus, Roach seems to have enough quickness to keep up with other zippy guards.

He'll need to trust his instincts while serving as a loud voice on the defensive end. If he does all that, it's conceivable he will lead the way for Duke in this regard by doubling his 0.8 steals per game from last season.

But don't count out Dariq Whitehead to give Jeremy Roach a run for his money in the quest to snatch the crown as the group's premier thief.

Projected Duke basketball leader in blocks: Dereck Lively II

Dereck Lively II has already displayed his renowned blocking prowess on several occasions this summer (check the highlights). At the same time, though, he has occasionally let his man slip by him and get to the rack with ease.

And again, it remains to be seen if Lively has the strength to withstand body blows and the sort from ACC bigs who have been around for several years.

Furthermore, his shoulders aren't exactly broad for his size, which limits his reach.

However, at the prep level, Dereck Lively II left zero doubt about his impeccable timing in seeking out blocks. It may take time for him to adjust to the grown-man college game, but he should eventually figure it out and serve as the Blue Devils' top rim protector at, say, 1.8 blocks per game.

Projected Duke basketball leader in FG percentage: Dereck Lively II

Seeing that Dereck Lively II's specialty appears to be finishing alley-oops and transition opportunities with simple flushes at the rim, he could finish with a record-setting field goal percentage.

On the other hand, as is evident in the scrimmage highlights, Lively isn't shy when it comes time to pull the trigger from deep. So that could ding his overall shooting percentage, even more so if he becomes too trigger-happy beyond the arc while defenders dare him to shoot rather than attack the basket.

Hopefully, Jon Scheyer and his assistants will work to keep his 3-point attempts in check. Assuming that is the case, let's project Dereck Lively II to shoot 60.5 percent from the field for the season.

Projected Duke basketball leader in 3-point percentage: Jaden Schutt

First-year Duke shooting guard Jaden Schutt — pronounce his last name as "shoot" — may struggle to beat out a loaded cast of wings for significant playing time, especially early on in the campaign.

Therefore, chances are the 6-foot-4, 175-pound former four-star sharpshooter from Illinois won't lead the Blue Devils in 3-point attempts. However, his picture-perfect stroke and high basketball IQ should eventually translate into a reasonable amount of playing time and an enviable 3-point percentage.

The prediction here is that Jaden Schutt will knock down 41.5 percent of his attempts from downtown as the only player in the 2022-23 Duke basketball regular rotation to wind up better than 40 percent.

Projected Duke basketball leader in FT percentage: Jaden Schutt

Betting on Jaden Schutt to lead the Blue Devils in attempts from the charity stripe would be foolish. Again, though, seemingly no other player on the roster has a more fine-tuned stroke from any distance, including the foul line.

While Schutt might not see enough free throws to qualify for the ACC or national leaderboard in this category, it wouldn't be a surprise if he hovers around 90 percent with the few attempts he does draw.

With that in mind, we'll project Jaden Schutt to prevail in this competition among Blue Devils anyway, disregarding the likelihood that he'll not even finish among Duke's top five in free throw attempts.

Projected Duke basketball leader in minutes: Jeremy Roach

Big men require frequent breathers. Rookies often hit freshman walls and land in the coach's doghouse from time to time due to youth-related mistakes. And none of Duke's transfers — Jacob Grandison, Ryan Young, Kale Catchings, Max Johns — will likely be anything more than vital role players, with Grandison a possible exception.

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That leaves Jeremy Roach — with the understanding that neither sophomore guard Jaylen Blakes, who barely played as a freshman, nor the walk-ons have a shot at playing anywhere close to 30 minutes per game.

Roach received 29.4 minutes per game last year. We'll project he adds about three minutes to that average this season, barely besting Dariq Whitehead for the most minutes.

The Blue Devils begin their season on Nov. 7 when they host Jacksonville.

Stay tuned to Blue Devil Country for daily Duke basketball content.


Published
Matt Giles
MATT GILES

Matt Giles is the editor and publisher of Duke Blue Devils on SI, North Carolina Tar Heels on SI, and NC State Wolfpack on SI, making him a key source for comprehensive coverage of these storied college basketball programs. Since joining SI in 2022, Matt has been dedicated to providing in-depth analysis, breaking news, and exclusive content on all three teams. He covers everything from game previews and recaps to player profiles and recruiting updates. Matt's expert knowledge of these teams has made his work a go-to resource for fans and followers of Duke, NC State, and UNC. As publisher, he shapes the editorial direction, ensuring that the most relevant and timely information reaches his audience.