End of an Era: How Coach K Adjusts to a Changing Landscape

Duke adapts to potential change to one-and-done rule

Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski is 73 years old, and both he and Duke face the prospect of his tenure with the Blue Devils ending at some point in the next few years. In a three-part series, we will look at how Duke and Coach K are preparing for this transition, as well as the other changes going on in the sport at the same time.

In Part 1, we look at the end to the one-and-done rule that has been associated with Duke for the last decade.

On March 3, 2018, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski discussed Grayson Allen, who had just celebrated his Senior Night with a comeback win over North Carolina.

It was the end of an era, and not just Allen’s four years at Duke.

“Look, I love that kid,” Coach K said. “For the rest of the time I coach here, for however long that is, I’m not going to have a senior like that, because they’re going to be too good, and they’re going to leave.”

Allen left with 1,996 career points as a Blue Devil. In the two Senior Nights since then, a quartet of four-year players have left after combining for 819—less than half of Allen’s total. Next season’s lone four-year senior, Jordan Goldwire, currently has 207 career points.

The moment seemed to finalize Coach K’s—and Duke’s—transition to a one-and-done school, serving as a stopover point for players on their way to the NBA. Krzyzewski won his first championships with players who stayed all four years, only to seemingly do a 180 in approach and embrace players who had no intention of remaining in school. He’s won championships that way, too.

And yet, two years later, there are signs that Krzyzewski is pivoting once again. Sure, the 2019-20 Blue Devils had freshmen Vernon Carey Jr. and Cassius Stanley, who both left after a season for the NBA. However, they also featured Wendell Moore Jr. and Matthew Hurt, who appear to be headed for longer—if not full four-year—Duke careers.

Moreover, Carey’s decision to go pro came after a season where coaches, teammates and mock drafters all raved over his rapid development as a post player. Stanley was far from a sure one-and-done when he arrived. His decision was based on his age—he’ll turn 21 before he plays a pro game—and potential.

New-look Duke, same as the old look

Throughout the season, Krzyzewski called the 2019-20 Duke team “old school.”

“You never get to where you want to get,” he said of working with one-and-done players, “because it’s just nine months. With this group, we kind of could. This is more old-fashioned. We have the blend of old and new. I really like that dynamic—guys that have been through it.”

There are several reasons for this change in approach. After all-star teams of one-and-dones, including the 2018 team that featured Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr., and 2019’s Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish superteam, it’s possible Krzyzewski decided that a veteran presence was an important ingredient, even if it meant focusing on a slightly lower level of prospect. The rumor that he would embrace that approach and move away from one-and-dones began minutes after Team Zion lost to Michigan State in the Elite Eight.

Krzyzewski denies shifting his recruiting targets, however.

“I haven’t changed how I recruit,” he said on the ACC’s weekly coaches conference call earlier this year. “What’s changed is the landscape for the kids that are being recruited. In other words, the NBA has changed. We still go after the same level, the same type of youngster. They become good. They’re already good. They become a little bit better, and then they go.”

The shifting landscape of the pros

The changing environment Krzyzewski mentions is the other big reason that Duke’s 2019-20 throwback team may be a sign of things to come in Durham.

The NBA is expected to change its stance on high school players in the next collective bargaining agreement, effectively ending the one-and-done era in college basketball. That means that the types of players Krzyzewski has used as the centerpieces of his teams for the last decade will likely be bypassing college in the future.

Closely related to the expected change in policy on high schoolers is the increasing role of the G League as a possible competitor to college basketball. Already this year, high-profile prospects Jalen Green, Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix have announced that they’re skipping college to spend a year on the G League’s new developmental team.

While that move took many in college basketball by surprise, Krzyzewski was openly discussing the possibility last year. Speaking before the 2019-20 season, he forecast a time when the NBA used the G League to challenge college basketball for elite high school players.

“I like the fact that they have alternatives,” he said. “People are going to make those decisions. We have to adjust accordingly. As a collegiate community if we think the NBA is just going to stand still … the G League being what it is right now—it’s advanced. If and when high school players are brought in right away the G League has to improve. And they are investing in it. Don’t be shocked … if there’s G League on TV and maybe our college product is being challenged. We need to not have our heads in the sand, and our heads are in the sand a lot.”

In February, he again mentioned the threat of the G League, saying of college basketball, “We’re being left behind. You notice how many high school games are on TV? The G League is on TV. If high school kids go in the next couple years, do you not think the NBA and ESPN are not gonna promote the games that show the guys who are going to go into the NBA?”

Coping in the new era

So Krzyzewski has adjusted his recruiting. That doesn’t mean he’ll ignore the top players. He’ll just identify their intentions early on and focus his efforts on the ones who plan to attend college. This approach is nothing new to him. Coach K and Duke thrived in the high-school to pro era that preceded the one-and-done rule. In that time, he only lost one committed player to the pros—guard Shaun Livingston in 2004.

Krzyzewski’s recruiting approach is based on building a close relationship with a player and focusing on a select few recruits early on, rather than a more scattershot approach. It’s no coincidence that Krzyzewski was talking about the G League early, nor is it that Duke was never heavily involved with Green, Todd or Nix. Meanwhile, everyone in K’s class of 2020 appears to be shunning the G League’s advances and heading to Duke.

The shift back to more veteran teams, while the NBA syphons off the future Zions and Bagleys, actually fits Krzyzewski better.

“There’s a lot of things I don’t like about college basketball right now,” he said on a recent appearance on Philadelphia radio station WIP. “You don’t get a chance to develop relationships like I had with all those guys who were here four years … You help a youngster grow both on and off the court. I call it crossing bridges. They’re bridges of improvement. You come to a bridge, and a lot of times you can’t cross the bridge alone. A teacher or coach can help you do that. When you have a youngster during those formative years of 18-to-22 you get a chance to cross a few bridges with them. Once you cross those bridges of improvement or getting over a handicap or mistake, you forge a relationship that lasts a lifetime.”

Duke has one of the nation’s top recruiting classes in the current cycle and is in the running for a similar class in 2021. It appears, then, that Duke will be just fine as the one-and-done era comes to an end.

That brings us to the next era that’s winding down.

In next week’s installment, we’ll look at what’s next for the 73-year-old Coach K and when it will happen. Then, the following week, we’ll look at what’s next for Duke once Krzyzewski moves on.