Predicting which Duke basketball players bolt after season

The Duke basketball program may see a handful of early departees yet again.

Only three members of the current Duke basketball squad consistently appear in the first round of recent 2023 mock drafts: Kyle Filipowski, Dariq Whitehead, and Dereck Lively II.

But as Blue Devil fans have learned in recent years — even with the draw of NIL the past two cycles — the lack of a guaranteed spot in the NBA hasn't been much of a deterrent to former five-star recruits leaving Durham with eligibility remaining to begin a pro career somewhere (see: Matthew Hurt, DJ Steward, Trevor Keels).

On that note, six former five-stars (five freshmen and one junior) are on the 2022-23 Duke basketball roster. And their stocks are rising, at least in a collective sense, given the Blue Devils (20-8, 11-6 ACC) have hit their stride of late and are riding a three-game win streak entering a home bout against Virginia Tech at 8 p.m. ET Saturday.

Furthermore, considering the 2023 Duke basketball recruiting class contains five more five-stars, the transfer portal could attract a current Blue Devil or two.

So all that begs the question: Who will bolt after the season?

Let's first list the players whose eligibility expires this year: Jacob Grandison, Kale Catchings, and Max Johns. Meanwhile, two of the 12 with eligibility remaining are walk-ons: Spencer Hubbard and Stanley Borden.

That leaves 10 scholarship players with the option to return next season. And Blue Devil Country, in an attempt to be realistic, currently foresees half of them taking their talents elsewhere:

• Dariq Whitehead. The 6-foot-7 freshman has dealt with injuries and seen his draft stock drop from a high lottery pick upon his arrival in Durham to a mid-to-late first-rounder nowadays. That said, he's improving (14-for-24 beyond the arc across the past six games) and appears a lock to hear his name on draft night.
• Dereck Livey II. At 7-foot-1 with a reported 7-foot-8 wingspan, the nimble freshman center, who finished one spot above Whitehead at No. 1 on the 247Sports 2022 Composite as a recruit, has become a game-changing force for the Blue Devils. Although no longer a projected lottery pick, he's back on the rise.
• Kyle Filipowski. Look, Duke basketball talents who ranked in the top five in their recruiting class — Filipowski came in at No. 4 — no longer stick around for long. Sure, the 7-footer hinted at staying multiple years before the season began. But now he's an eight-time ACC Rookie of the Week and likely a surefire first-rounder.
• Mark Mitchell. While the 6-foot-8 freshman's shooting form is jagged, his athleticism and 7-foot-1 wingspan should appeal to the NBA. Moreover, he's been durable (he and Filipowski are the only two who have played and started in every game) and clutch (replay his 3-point dagger against Notre Dame).
• Jeremy Roach. For whatever reason, it seems to have been a consensus among media members and fans all season that the 6-foot-2 junior, averaging a career-best 12.7 points per game, won't return for his senior year despite rarely appearing anywhere on mock drafts and big boards.

So the prediction is the program returns the following five scholarship players: sophomores-to-be Tyrese Proctor, Jaden Schutt, and Christian Reeves, junior-to-be Jaylen Blakes, and graduate Ryan Young, who claimed in last year's tweet to announce his transfer to Duke that he planned to use both remaining years of eligibility.

As noted above, fortunately for first-year Duke basketball head coach Jon Scheyer, five more five-stars are set to arrive. And that's not to mention a few more potential additions via a transfer portal that will surely be jam-packed with experienced weapons again.

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