Predicting Duke Basketball's Ranking in Preseason AP Top 25

Duke basketball might begin the season at No. 1, but No. 2 or 3 looks more likely.

Author:
Matt Giles
Oct 10, 2023 10:05 AM EDT

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The preseason AP Top 25 comes out next Monday, four days before Duke basketball's Countdown to Craziness and three weeks before the Blue Devils' season opener at home against Dartmouth.

Superstitious fans may prefer Duke be unranked. After all, that's the position 2023 national champion UConn was in this time last year. And last year's preseason No. 1, UNC, did not reach the NCAA Tournament.

Nevertheless, the second batch of Blue Devils under Jon Scheyer's command is a lock to see its name in the first AP Poll of the season. A spot in the top five feels like a guarantee.

While No. 1 is not out of the question, based on the latest updated projections from CBS Sports' Gary Parrish (Duke at No. 3) and ESPN's Jeff Borzello (Duke at No. 2), chances are the Blue Devils begin below Kansas and possibly Purdue.

Borzello broke down the battle for the top spot:

"In terms of pure talent, Duke has the edge. The Blue Devils have three players — [Kyle] Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, and Jared McCain — projected to be selected in the top 20 of the 2024 NBA Draft, plus another, Mark Mitchell, in the early second round. Meanwhile, Kansas has just one such player (Elmarko Jackson) per ESPN's 2024 mock draft.
"But in terms of proven quality at the college level, the Jayhawks are loaded. Dickinson is a preseaon All-American — and perhaps the biggest threat to [Purdue center Zach] Edey's chances at repeating as the Wooden Award winner — while Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. are among the best players in the country at their positions."

Perhaps a handful of the 62 AP voters will view Duke as the top dog.

However, despite four returning starters, including senior guard Jeremy Roach and reigning ACC Rookie of the Year Kyle Filipowski, plus four five-star freshmen on Scheyer's roster, the majority of voters may value the experience at Kansas and (maybe) Purdue against what figures to still be a relatively young primary Blue Devil rotation.

Although the Duke basketball program has been in the preseason top 10 a remarkable 15 years in a row, the last time the Blue Devils started higher than No. 4 was 2017-18. The former streak will remain intact, and the latter should end.

PREDICTION: Duke begins at No. 2