The forecasts for Duke's NBA players for 2019-20 and beyond
Twenty eight former Duke players were either on NBA rosters at some point last season or were selected in this year’s draft.
Nate Silver’s analytics site fivethirtyeight.com used its new forecasting model to project each player’s value for the upcoming season and the near future.
The first thing the model does is rank each player on up to 14 categories, including everything from height and weight to shooting percentage to ball handling. The player’s percentile standing in each category is then used to give him a label of Good, Average or Bad in each.
Here’s a look at which Duke players had the most Good ratings.
Zion Williamson, Jabari Parker and Jayson Tatum were the only Duke players with no Bad ratings. Tatum's two Goods were surprisingly low, but he had was Average in more areas than anyone else.
The model also found the player in league history most similar to each player at this point in their career.
Finally, it came up with year-by-year projections of each player’s WAR and market value for each upcoming season through 2028. It used those forecasts to place each player in a category based on future expectations.
All star: Kyrie Irving
Future all star: Zion Williamson, Jayson Tatum
Up and comer: Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones, Marvin Bagley III
Good prospect: RJ Barrett
Ok prospect: Cam Reddish, Trevon Duval
Defensive specialist: Wendell Carter Jr.
Rotation player: Luke Kennard, Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker, Seth Curry, Austin Rivers, Mason Plumlee, Amile Jefferson, Luol Deng
Scrappy veteran: JJ Redick
Project: Brandon Ingram, Harry Giles, Frank Jackson, Gary Trent Jr., Jahlil Okafor, Grayson Allen
Scrub: Quinn Cook, Miles Plumlee, Lance Thomas
Here's a look at what to expect from the NBA Blue Devils.
