Who Did Duke Battle and Beat on NSD?

A look at Duke's offers compared to last season

Duke had a strong finish on National Signing Day to bring in a 16-player class of 2020. Coach David Cutcliffe said that the Blue Devils might not be finished and could add another player or two in February, depending on roster spots that may come available.

Obviously, recruiting at Duke is different from recruiting at other football schools. Admissions requirements mean that there are several players that need to be taken off of Cutcliffe’s board before the process even starts. As a result, Cutcliffe and his staff tend to identify candidates early and stay out of the wild recruiting wars that occupy other schools.

Still, this year’s class showed an even bigger shift away from Power Five prospects.

Duke’s 16 signees in 2020 had an average of 12.7 offers from other schools, but only 4.6 were from schools in Power Five conferences. The other 8.1 came from mid-majors, low-majors or FCS schools.

By comparison, last year’s 21-player class had an average of 13.4 offers. 6.9 were from Power Five, compared to 6.5 from lower-level programs. Just over 68 percent of the other offers Duke’s 2018 signees received were from Power Five schools. This year, it was 60.7 percent.

Does that mean that Duke focused on players less in demand this year? Or did the Blue Devils just lose more recruiting battles than last year for the higher-rated prospects?

Here’s a look at who Duke fought for this year’s recruits and who the Blue Devils beat.

Win-Loss record

For our purposes, we’re considering any player that Duke offered a scholarship who chose another school a “Loss” to that school. For instance, EJ Smith took official visits to Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M before choosing Stanford on signing day. But Duke offered him a scholarship. So he represents a Duke loss to Stanford.

Similarly, if a player chooses Duke, the Blue Devils get a “win” over any other team that offered him.

Here’s how Duke did against the schools in the other Power Five and non-Power Five conferences.

The Blue Devils had a 31.9 winning percentage against Power Five schools this year, down from 43.5 percent last year. Other than the Big 12, Duke’s win percentage against every other conference dropped. Against the ACC, Duke went from a 44.5 percent win rate to 29 percent.

Here’s a look at Duke’s success rate against each ACC school.

Not only did the Blue Devils do worse against most conference foes, they challenged them far less often. Duke and NC State battled on 17 prospects last year, but just three this season. They went head-to-head against Virginia 13 times last year, two this year, Virginia Tech 12 times last year and twice this year, Syracuse went from nine prospect battles to two.

Even among schools that have similar admission requirements—Vanderbilt, Northwestern and Stanford—Duke picked fewer fights and won less of them.

As David Cutcliffe said, Duke knew it would be bringing in a smaller class this year and had to be more selective, but that selectivity also seemed to include a drop in level of competition.

A look at who Duke beat most often this year, compared to last year, underscores that. This year’s list includes nine non-Power Five schools, including FCS Austin Peay and Dartmouth.