Behind The Numbers: Week 0 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Aug 26, 2024

Brian Morse (Montana State Athletics)

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We will also give you some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s biggest Week 0 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 0?

Florida A&M 24, Norfolk State 23

Success Rate: Florida A&M (50%), Norfolk State (45.1%)

This game was one of the most competitive games of the weekend. Both teams averaged 7.1 yards per play but found success in entirely different ways. Norfolk State dominated on the ground as the running backs averaged 7.3 yards per carry. Kevon King led the Spartans with 146 rushing yards on 14 carries, including an 82-yard touchdown to open the game.

Florida A&M was less successful on the ground, averaging less than five yards per carry. The Rattlers were much more efficient through the air, as Daniel Richardson posted a passer rating of 186.41. Richardson completed 22-of-30 attempts for 286 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Tarleton State 26, McNeese State 23

Success Rate: Tarleton State (42.65%), McNeese State (37.88%)

The biggest storyline in this game was quarterback Victor Gabalis' injury, which completely shifted the momentum. Before Gabalis' injury, Tarleton State's offense recorded 24 successful plays, but it only posted five successful plays after he left the game. The Texans only had one drive in the second half that exceeded five plays or 25 total yards.

Despite McNeese's inability to move the ball for three quarters, the Cowboys averaged over 6.5 yards per play. This was due to the offense's ability to produce explosive plays, highlighted by Clifton McDowell's 80-yard touchdown pass to Matthew McCallister. The Cowboys finished the game with eight plays over 15 or more yards, including both touchdown passes from McDowell.

Which Games Were Not As Close As They Seemed?

Montana State 35, New Mexico 31

Success Rate: Montana State (54.43%), New Mexico (40.38%)

Two costly turnovers from Montana State's Tommy Mellott skewed the results of this game. The Bobcats dominated on a down-to-down basis, finishing with the highest success rate of the weekend.

Montana State rushed for over 370 yards and averaged over 7.5 yards per carry, led by Adam Jones and Scottre Humphrey. The two backs combined for over 300 rushing yards on 36 carries while finishing the game with only one negative play. It was another dominant performance from Montana State's offensive line in the run game.

Montana State's defense did an excellent job of getting New Mexico's offense off the field on third downs. The Lobos finished the game 1-for-8 on third down attempts, a critical factor in Montana State's comeback victory.

Quick Hits:

SEMO's victory over North Alabama was extremely similar to the Tarleton State-McNeese game. The Lions averaged 5.4 yards per play and held the Redhawks to less than five yards per play, but were much less efficient on a down-to-down basis. North Alabama relied on explosive plays, while SEMO moved the ball consistently throughout the game. SEMO finished the game with a success rate of 56%, compared to North Alabama's success rate of 37%.

Delaware State was a 40-point underdog against Hawai'i, but entered the fourth quarter only down by seven points. The defense was key for the Hornets, holding Hawai'i to less than 350 yards on Saturday night. Delaware State's offense struggled to find consistent success, posting the worst success rate of the weekend at 30.16%.

More FCS Football News

Week 0 FCS Football Preview
Top 10 FCS Players To Watch In Week 0
2024 SoCon Football Preview
2024 Missouri Valley Conference Preview
2024 FCS Football Central Preseason All-American Team

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