Behind The Numbers: Week 1 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Sep 4, 2024

Central Arkansas running back ShunDerrick Powell / Central Arkansas Athletics

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 1 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 1?

Mishalynn Brown/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK

Villanova 24, Youngstown State 17

Success Rate: Villanova (52%), Youngstown State (50%)

Both offenses effectively moved the ball, but a deeper dive shows that each team did this differently. Villanova averaged 7.1 yards per play, while Youngstown State only averaged 4.9. The Wildcats put on a masterful example of 'bend-don't break' defense, limiting explosive plays for the Youngstown offense. Due to the lack of explosive plays, the Wildcats were able to force three turnovers, which was the difference in this game. Even with the lack of production through the air, Villanova effectively ran the football behind Connor Watkins and Isaiah Ragland. The duo combined for 185 rushing yards on only 17 carries.

San Jose State 42, Sacramento State 24

Success Rate: San Jose State (48%), Sacramento State (44%)

Sacramento State won the battle at the line of scrimmage, holding San Jose State to 2.0 yards per carry. The Hornets averaged over 5.0 yards per carry, led by Elijah Tau-Tolliver with 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Despite the success rushing, the Hornets struggled through the air. Kaiden Bennett and Carson Conklin combined for 41 pass attempts, averaging an abysmal 4.4 yards per attempt. Defensively, the Hornets struggled to stop the pass, allowing over 9.3 yards per attempt. The defensive struggles led to San Jose State's 28-point explosion in the second half.

Florida A&M 22, South Carolina State 18

Success Rate: Florida A&M (46.3%), South Carolina State (45.9%)

Florida A&M found a way to win another close game, winning back-to-back games by less than five points. The Rattlers struggled to establish the rushing attack, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. Florida A&M's efficiency on third and fourth down was the difference in this game. The Rattlers converted on 10-of-16 attempts on third and fourth downs while holding South Carolina State to 30% in those moments. Quarterback Daniel Richardson had another spectacular performance, recording 282 passing yards and three passing touchdowns.

Incarnate Word 28, Northern Colorado 7

Success Rate: Incarnate Word (44%), Northern Colorado (39%)

Incarnate Word entered this season with high expectations but struggled early in this game. The Cardinals only averaged 5.5 yards per play and failed to establish drives against the Bears. Northern Colorado averaged over 5.0 yards per play, but four turnovers shifted the game's momentum. Running back Dekalon Taylor had a solid performance, leading the Cardinals with 79 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Texas Tech 52, Abilene Christian 51

Success Rate: Texas Tech (55%), Abilene Christian (51%)

Abilene Christian had one of the most exciting yet disappointing performances of Week 1. The Wildcats competed with Texas Tech, taking the Red Raiders to overtime. Data from this game shows that the Wildcats finished the game with a win probability of 73%. The offense was electric behind Maverick McIvor, who passed over 500 yards and three touchdowns.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Central Arkansas running back ShunDerrick Powell / Central Arkansas Athletics

Arkansas State 35, Central Arkansas 31

Success Rate: Arkansas State (38%), Central Arkansas (43%)

Postgame win probability gave Central Arkansas an 89% chance to pull off the upset. The Bears dominated this game, finishing with a higher success rate and rushing for over 230 yards. ShunDerrick Powell led the Bears with 176 rushing yards and two touchdowns, averaging over 11.0 yards per carry. Defensively, Central Arkansas held the Red Wolves to 3.3 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per play. The replay official made the incorrect call on the game-winning touchdown reception, which cost the Bears a potential FBS win.

UAlbany 27, Long Island 21

Success Rate: UAlbany (33%), Long Island (46%)

UAlbany was fortunate to escape with a win in Week 1. The defensive touchdown from Jack Iuliano was the critical difference despite Long Island dominating this game. Running back Ludovick Choquette led a potent rushing attack with 128 rushing yards on only 15 carries for the Sharks. UAlbany's offensive line struggled to establish the line of scrimmage, which led to a disappointing 3.2 yards per carry. Wide receiver Seven McGee's ability to generate explosive plays saved the UAlbany offense. McGee recorded five receptions for 119 receiving yards and one touchdown. If UAlbany is going to be a contender in the CAA, the Great Danes will have to play much better football throughout the season.

UL Monroe 30, Jackson State 14

Success Rate: UL Monroe (39%), Jackson State (41%)

The data suggest that this was an evenly-matched game on Thursday night, but one team's ability to generate explosive plays was the ultimate difference. Jackson State only produced one explosive game, while UL Monroe utilized five explosive plays to pull away in the second half. Quarterback JaCobian Morgan was efficient, completing 24-of-29 attempts, but failed to push the ball vertically, limiting the Jackson State offense. The Tigers relied on underneath concepts and check-downs too often, which cost them the potential FBS upset.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 1?

Mercer quarterback DJ Smith / Mercer Athletics

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

Mercer 63, Presbyterian 10

Success Rate: Mercer (60%), Presbyterian (13%)

Mercer posted the biggest net success rate of the weekend with a success rate difference of 47%. The Bears have hit the ground running under new head coach Mike Jacobs. Transfer quarterback DJ Smith was electric, completing 20-of-24 attempts for 331 passing yards and four total touchdowns. Mercer's defense held Presbyterian to -7 yards rushing and less than 2.5 yards per play.

Eastern Washington 42, Monmouth 27

Success Rate: Eastern Washington (63%), Monmouth (42%)

Eastern Washington posted the best offensive success rate of any FCS team that played a Division I opponent. Kekoa Visperas, Efton Chism and the Eastern Washington passing attack put on a clinic of effectiveness and efficiency. Visperas completed 25-of-28 attempts for 275 passing yards and five touchdowns. Efton Chism reeled in 12 receptions for 173 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Eastern Washington excelled by staying on schedule, leading to an incredible 8-of-13 effort on third down. The Eagle did not face a third down of more than four yards until the fourth quarter.

William & Mary 41, VMI 7

Success Rate: William & Mary (61%), VMI (40%)

William & Mary's offense was unstoppable against the Keydets. The Tribe averaged over 8.0 yards per play, compared to only 4.0 yards per play for VMI's offense. Quarterback Darius Wilson finished the game with an average of 16.1 yards per completion, recording 190 yards and two touchdowns. Bronson Yoder led a rushing attack that rolled up over 200 yards on the ground and three touchdowns.

Montana State 31, Utah Tech 7

Success Rate: Montana State (49%), Utah Tech (8%)

Montana State had the most dominant defensive performance of Week 1. The Bobcats held Utah Tech to only 176 total yards and forced 10 punts from the Trailblazers. Utah Tech did not record a first down until the fourth quarter. The Bobcats dominated on the ground, rushing for over 330 yards and three touchdowns.

Quick Hits:

• In one of the most anticipated games of the weekend, South Dakota State posted a 35% success rate, compared to Oklahoma State's 47%. The Jackrabbits averaged more yards per play than the Cowboys but struggled to sustain drives after poor execution on third and fourth downs. South Dakota State only converted on 17.6% (3-for-17) of third and fourth down opportunities. Field position was another issue for South Dakota State after Oklahoma State started three drives inside Jackrabbit territory. Oklahoma State's average drive started at their 40-yard line, while the Jackrabbits started inside their 30-yard line on every drive.

• Idaho pushed No. 3 Oregon into the fourth quarter, falling short in a 24-14 loss to the Ducks. The Vandals only had a success rate of 28%, while the Ducks were efficient at 49%. Idaho's defense kept this game close by limiting explosive plays. The Vandals held the Ducks to 2.9 yards per carry and sacked Dillon Gabriel three times, including two from Keyshawn James-Newby. It was an impressive feat after Oregon only allowed six sacks in 2023. Offensively, Idaho was unable to establish much production but found success late in the passing game and averaged over 15.1 yards per completion.

• Montana escaped with a 29-24 win over Missouri State in Week 1. The Grizzlies finished with a success rate of 44%, compared to a 37% success rate for Missouri State. Montana excelled defensively, holding Missouri State to 4.9 yards per play and limiting the rushing attack of the Bears. The key for Missouri State was converting on third and long, where quarterback Jacob Clark made some impressive plays. Montana's defense found ways to create havoc, posting 10 tackles for loss on Saturday night. Defensive end Hayden Harris led the Grizzlies with three tackles for loss, while Vai Kaho posted 2.5 tackles for loss. Offensively, running back Eli Gillman shined with 89 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

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