2024 FCS Playoffs: First-Round Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | 2 Hours Ago

Tommy Martino (Montana Athletics)

The 2024 FCS Playoff bracket is set, and the race to Frisco begins this weekend. We preview and make our official predictions for all eight first-round games below. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 156-43
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Central Connecticut State at No. 10 Rhode Island

Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ESPN+)
Series: Rhode Island leads 3-1

Central Connecticut State secured the NEC auto-bid with a win over Duquesne in Week 13. The Blue Devils have won four consecutive games and have lost three FCS games by a combined eight points. Rhode Island finished the season 10-1 vs the FCS and earned a share of the CAA title for the first time in program history.

Rhode Island will be without starting quarterback Devin Farrell, pushing Hunter Helms into the starting role for the third consecutive game. Helms has struggled with turnovers, throwing four interceptions in the past three games. Central Connecticut State leads all playoff teams in turnover rate, forcing a turnover on 4.08% of snaps, led by defensive back Christopher Jean with three interceptions.

The Rams have leaned on running back Malik Grant all season, who ranks No. 3 in the CAA in rushing yards. Grant has posted 1,167 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, surpassing the 100-yard mark six times.

Central Connecticut State ranks last among postseason teams in offensive success rate and yards per play. The Blue Devils will struggle to find success against a Rhode Island defense holding opposing offenses to 4.92 yards per play. Linebacker A.J. Pena leads the Rams with 18 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks.

Prediction: Rhode Island (28-17)

Drake at No. 13 Tarleton State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Series: First Meeting

Drake looks to become the first Pioneer League team to win a playoff game since 2013. The Bulldogs stunned Eastern Washington to start the season and have won seven of their past eight games. Tarleton State makes its FCS Playoff debut after transitioning from the Division II level, finishing 9-2 vs FCS opponents.

Everything starts with running Kayvon Britten, who leads the Texans with 1,750 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. Tarleton State ranks No. 14 nationally in rushing offense, while Drake ranks No. 10 in rushing defense, holding opponents to 109.1 yards per game. Defensive end Finn Claypool is a matchup nightmare, leading the Bulldogs with 16.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks.

The Bulldogs have done an excellent job against the pass, forcing ten interceptions and allowing only seven touchdowns. Drake's secondary will face the massive challenge of stopping wide receiver Darius Cooper, who has posted 1,099 receiving yards and ten receiving touchdowns. After struggling with interceptions, quarterback Victor Gabalis has thrown for 790 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero turnovers in the past three games.

Prediction: Tarleton State (45-20)

No. 12 Illinois State at SEMO

Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ESPN+)
Series: Illinois State leads 8-3

Despite earning a Top 16 seed, Illinois State must travel to SEMO because of the high school state championships at Hancock Field. The Redbirds have won five consecutive games and are peaking at the right time. On the other hand, SEMO has lost two of its last three games, including an upset loss to Lindenwood.

Illinois State struggled after losing multiple key starters to injury, but the Redbirds have been a different team since All-American Amir Abdullah returned to the lineup. The Redbirds have held their past four opponents under 20 points and have recorded two or more sacks in seven consecutive games. Linebackers Tye Niekamp and LaVoise-Deontae McCoy have combined for 20.5 tackles for loss and over 180 total tackles.

Injuries have negatively impacted SEMO's rushing attack, but quarterback Paxton DeLaurent carried the Redhawks to a share of the Big South-OVC championship. DeLaurent ranks fifth nationally with 3,520 passing yards and is surrounded by a wide receiver core with three players who have surpassed 700 receiving yards. Dorian Anderson leads the offense with 930 receiving yards and ten touchdowns.

Wenkers Wright has thrived as the starting running back, leading Illinois State with 1,035 rushing yards and ten touchdowns. Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse is a dangerous dual-threat weapon, throwing for 2,330 yards, rushing for 424 yards, and posting 22 total touchdowns. SEMO's defense has done an excellent job generating pressure, ranking fourth among postseason teams in pressure rate.

This is one of the toughest games to predict this weekend, but I'll lean towards the more balanced offense. Illinois State's ability to control the pace of the game, combined with an improving defense, will be enough to earn the road victory.

Prediction: Illinois State (27-20)

Lehigh at No. 9 Richmond

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Series: Richmond leads 2-1

Richmond enters the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning ten consecutive games after an 0-2 start. The Spiders are making their third straight postseason appearance and have not lost a first-round game since 1998. Lehigh received the Patriot League auto-bid by winning five consecutive games to end the season, securing its first postseason appearance since 2017.

Lehigh's offense is led by running backs Luke Yoder and Jaden Green, who lead the nation's No. 9 rushing offense. The duo has combined for 1,581 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns but faces a talented Richmond front seven, holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry.

Defensive end Jeremiah Grant leads the Spiders with 16.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks, while linebackers Carter Glassmyer and Wayne Galloway have combined for over 150 total tackles and 13.5 tackles for loss. The Spiders rank No. 3 nationally with 36 sacks, while Lehigh allows pressure on over 23% of offensive snaps.

The emergence of running back Zach Palmer-Smith has changed the trajectory of the Richmond offense. He leads the Spiders with 1,275 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Camden Coleman can create plays outside the pocket, rushing for 307 yards and six touchdowns.

Lehigh's defense ranks No. 1 among playoff teams in yards per pass allowed, holding opponents to 5.42 yards per pass attempt. The Hawks have only allowed 200 or more passing yards twice this season. Richmond quarterback Camden Coleman has completed 64.5% of his passes for 1,832 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

Prediction: Richmond (35-21)

UT Martin at No. 16 New Hampshire

Kickoff: Noon CT (ESPN+)
Series: First Meeting

New Hampshire made a late push for the postseason with four consecutive wins, including a Top 25 upset over Stony Brook. UT Martin won a share of the Big South-OVC title for the fourth straight season and has won seven of its past eight games. Both programs have relied on dominant defenses, giving this matchup all the makings of a defensive battle.

UT Martin ranks No. 4 nationally with 18 interceptions and has held opponents to only 87.6 rushing yards per game. Linebacker Jaylon Sharpe leads the Skyhawks with 75 total tackles and 14.5 tackles for loss. Six players have recorded two or more interceptions, led by linebacker Chris Hunter Jr. with five.

The Wildcats have struggled to run the football, averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt this season. Quarterback Seth Morgan has completed 65.9% of his passes for 2,311 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. Logan Tomlinson leads the Wildcats with 810 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, while Caleb Burke has emerged as another threat with 688 receiving yards.

New Hampshire's defense is led by a dominant defensive line featuring Josiah Silver, who has posted 17.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. The Wildcats only allow a touchdown on 45% of their opponent's red zone opportunities, ranking third among postseason teams. This has allowed the Wildcats to win multiple games despite struggling offensively.

Running back Patrick Smith leads UT Martin with 1,123 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed the 100-yard mark in six games this season but has been held under 100 yards in four of the past five games. UT Martin is 0-3 when rushing for less than 100 yards this season.

I expect New Hampshire's defense to make a key play late, helping the Wildcats escape with a close win.

Prediction: New Hampshire (20-17)

Eastern Kentucky at No. 11 Villanova

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Series: First Meeting

Eastern Kentucky won five consecutive games and finished the season 8-2 vs the FCS, securing its spot in the postseason for the second time in the past three seasons. Villanova suffered two upset losses in conference play but ended the season with plenty of momentum with a win over Delaware in Week 13.

The Colonels will lean on their rushing attack, which has recorded 160 or more rushing yards throughout their five-game winning streak. Joshua Carter leads the Colonels with 1,106 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. The Wildcats have allowed 100 or more rushing yards in seven straight games but are led by one of the most talented linebacker duos in the nation. Shane Hartzell and Brendan Bell have combined for over 200 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, and eight sacks.

Villanova has not found the explosive passing attack that led the Wildcats to the quarterfinals last season. Regardless, quarterback Connor Watkins is still a dangerous dual-threat option that will create problems for the defense. Watkins has passed for 1,822 yards, 11 passing touchdowns, and eight rushing touchdowns. Freshman running back David Avit has recorded 793 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

The Wildcats have won 15 straight home games, the nation's second-longest streak. Villanova's experience on both sides of the ball will be the difference as the Wildcats pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Villanova (34-20)

Northern Arizona at No. 15 Abilene Christian

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Series: Northern Arizona leads 3-0

After winning the first outright conference title at the FCS level, Abilene Christian will make its FCS Playoff debut. Northern Arizona won five consecutive games to secure an at-large bid under first-year head coach Brian Wright.

A key matchup will be Abilene Christian's explosive passing attack against Northern Arizona's talented secondary. The Lumberjacks have held opponents to 171.1 passing yards per game and 6.06 yards per attempt. Safety Alex McLaughlin has recorded 85 total tackles, six tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and one interception. DJ VanHook and Mikale Greer lead the Lumberjacks with three interceptions and 11 combined pass breakups.

Quarterback Maverick McIvor ranks No. 3 nationally with 306.2 passing yards per game and has recorded 29 passing touchdowns with only five interceptions. Wide receivers Blayne Taylor and Nehemiah Martinez I have both surpassed 900 receiving yards, combining for 17 receiving touchdowns.

Abilene Christian's passing attack gets most of the publicity, but the rushing attack is the underrated aspect of this offense. Sam Hicks leads the Wildcats with 1,009 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while Isaiah Johnson has also recorded 11 rushing touchdowns. The Lumberjacks rank 20th among postseason teams in yards per carry allowed, giving up 4.2 yards per carry.

Northern Arizona has failed to impress away from the Walkup Skydome, going 3-4 in road games this season. Abilene Christian's ability to stay balanced offensively will be the difference as the Wildcats win a tightly-contested matchup in their playoff debut.

Prediction: Abilene Christian (31-28)

Tennessee State at No. 14 Montana

Kickoff: 9:15 p.m. CT (ESPN2)

Tennessee State makes its first appearance in the FCS Playoffs since 2013 after winning a share of a conference title for the first time since 1999. Montana is making its 28th postseason appearance after finishing 8-4 overall. The Grizzlies have not lost a first-round game in the FCS Playoffs since losing to Wofford in 2007.

Montana will look to establish the run early behind Eli Gillman and Nick Ostmo. Gillman leads the Grizzlies with 956 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, while Ostmo has recorded 769 rushing yards. It will be difficult against a Tennessee State front seven, generating a negative play on 10.9% of snaps. Linebacker Sanders Ellis is having a breakout freshman season, recording 71 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks.

Quarterback Draylen Ellis has had his best season with the Tigers, completing 60.4% of his passes for 2,733 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns. His ability to extend plays with his legs will be the x-factor against an aggressive Montana defense. Tennessee State ranks No. 22 among playoff teams in TFL rate allowed. Defensive end Hayden Harris leads the Grizzlies with 15 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks.

There has been uncertainty at quarterback all season for Montana. Logan Fife and Keali'i Ah Yat have split snaps, but the offense has been much more efficient with Fife as the primary signal caller. Fife has completed 64.7% of his passes for 1,793 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Montana's offensive line has been susceptible against elite defenses, allowing the most sacks in the Big Sky this season. Tennessee State's defensive line is generating pressure on 43.90% of snaps, ranking fifth among playoff teams. Eriq George and Keandre Booker have combined for 23 tackles for loss and 12 sacks this season.

I expect this game to be competitive throughout the first half as the Grizzlies struggle to find their rhythm against a talented Tennessee State defense. Depth will be the difference in the second half as Gillman and the Montana rushing attack help the Grizzlies secure a first-round victory.

Prediction: Montana (24-14)

More FCS Football News

Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs
2024 FCS Playoffs: First-Round Schedule, How To Watch
2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

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