FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: No. 8 Idaho at No. 1 Montana State

Zachary McKinnell | 5 Hours Ago

Montana State defensive end Kenneth Eiden IV / Brian Morse (Montana State Athletics)

No. 8 Idaho travels to No. 1 Montana State in the quarterfinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Dec. 13 at 8 p.m. CT on ESPN. The Bobcats defeated the Vandals 38-7 in Week 7.

The winner will advance to face the winner of No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota in the semifinals of the FCS Playoffs.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 170-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Idaho (10-3) @ Montana State (13-0)

Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: Montana State (-13.5)
Series History: Idaho leads 26-20-1

Key Players: Montana State

Tommy Mellott (QB): 170-for-241 (70.5%), 2,256 Passing Yards, 26 Passing TDs, 1 INT, 659 Rushing Yards, 11 Rushing TDs

Scottre Humphrey (RB): 177 Carries, 1,325 Rushing Yards, 7.5 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Adam Jones (RB): 132 Carries, 973 Rushing Yards, 7.4 YPC, 10 Rushing TDs

Brody Grebe (DL): 33 Total Tackles, 9 TFLs, 7.5 Sacks, 3 PBUs, 8 QBHs

McCade O'Reilly (LB): 61 Total Tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 3 PBUs, 6 QBHs

Key Players: Idaho

Jack Layne (QB): 80-for-125 (64%), 1,233 Passing Yards, 12 Passing TDs, 3 INTs, 1 Rushing TD

Jordan Dwyer (WR): 67 Receptions, 1,003 Receiving Yards, 14.97 YPC, 10 Receiving TDs

Mark Hamper (WR): 47 Receptions, 950 Receiving Yards, 20.21 YPC, 6 Receiving TDs

Keyshawn James-Newby (DL): 58 Total Tackles, 14.5 TFLs, 10.5 Sacks, 13 QBHs, 2 Forced Fumbles

Tommy McCormick (DB): 99 Total Tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 4 PBUs

Montana State dominated Idaho in the first matchup between these two programs this season. The Bobcats rushed for 360 yards and held the ball for over 37 minutes of the game, two things that the Vandals must limit this weekend. Idaho utilized that strategy in the 2023 season, holding the Bobcats to 128 rushing yards and limiting Montana State's opportunities with 41 minutes of possession time.

The return of quarterback Jack Layne has helped the Vandals reach new heights offensively. In the past three games, Layne has recorded 830 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and only one interception. Layne's absence limited the impact of two of the best wide receivers in the Big Sky in the first game. Jordan Dwyer and Mark Hamper have combined for over 1,900 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season.

Injuries have limited the Idaho rushing attack, adding to the importance of Layne's return at quarterback. Deshaun Buchanan has done a solid job leading the run game, posting 472 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Establishing the rushing attack will be important for the Vandals, but the Montana State defense has held opponents to 3.5 yards per carry.

The Bobcats have the most explosive offense in the nation, averaging over 7.5 yards per play and posting a success rate of 54.7% this season. Quarterback Tommy Mellott is playing the best football of his career, including a season-high 300 passing yards in the second round. The Vandals struggled to contain Mellott in the first game, allowing 140 rushing yards and four total touchdowns.

Along with Mellott's versatility, the Bobcats are dominant on the ground, ranking No. 2 nationally with 308.5 rushing yards per game. Scottre Humphrey leads the Bobcats with 1,325 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Freshman Adam Jones is the other half of an explosive 1-2 punch, posting 973 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

In this first matchup, Idaho struggled to generate pressure and create negative plays consistently. It will be essential for Idaho's front seven to keep the Bobcats off-schedule and behind the chains. Defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby leads the Vandals with 14.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks. The Vandals will need big games from linebackers Zach Johnson and Jaxton Eck, who have combined for over 200 tackles and 10 tackles for loss.

Montana State's defense is the most underrated aspect of this team. The Bobcats have held opponents to 285.2 yards per game, highlighted by an elite passing defense allowing only 5.73 yards per attempt. Brody Grebe leads the Bobcats with nine tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks, while Kenneth Eiden IV can also take over a game off the edge. If the Bobcats can take away the deep ball, things can get very difficult for the Idaho offense.

This game will be more competitive than the last matchup, but I do not know if Idaho has enough firepower to escape with the upset win in Bozeman this weekend. Montana State is playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball, led by one of the most dynamic players in the nation. The Bobcats will pull away in the second half behind another signature performance from Tommy Mellott.

Prediction: Montana State (38-21)

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