Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Second-Round Preview

Timothy Rosario | Dec 5, 2024

Idaho running back Deshaun Buchanan (8) / Idaho Athletics

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Last week, we examined some of the most important advanced stats on offense and defense. These stats helped us better understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses and how teams will perform over the final months of the season.

Below we go behind the numbers for each second-round matchup of the FCS Playoffs.

NOTE: Overall statistical rankings come from FCS Football Central’s average of several important factors. Rankings can be found in the Behind The Numbers article below.

Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs

No. 14 Montana at No. 3 South Dakota State

	South Dakota State	Montana
Off. Success Rate	48.26%	47.78%
Yards Per Play	6.87	6.08
Red Zone TD%	69.23%	70.59%
Yards Per Carry	6.46	5.58
Yards Per Pass	7.45	6.61
TFL% Allowed	4.02%	8.03%
Pressure% Allowed	21.63%	21.48%
TO%	1.17%	1.20%
Def. Success Rate	36.79%	41.17%
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.52	5.37
Def. Red Zone TD%	34.78%	56.41%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.00	4.03
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.05	7.11
TFL%	10.22%	8.04%
Pressure%	41.75%	34.64%
TO% Forced	2.35%	2.10%

Offensive Rank: SDSU (4th), Montana (6th)
Defensive Rank: SDSU (1st), Montana (22nd)

Montana defeated Tennessee State in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. The biggest problem for Montana is that the offense continues to regress. Junior Bergen bailed the Grizzlies out with two massive special teams touchdowns while the passing attack continued to struggle. Outside of Eli Gillman's electric 59-yard touchdown, the Grizzlies averaged less than five yards per carry.

South Dakota State's defense excels at limiting explosive plays, ranking No. 1 in yards per play allowed, No. 2 in yards per carry allowed, and No. 4 in yards per pass allowed. The Jackrabbits should have plenty of success against the Montana offensive line. The Grizzlies have struggled to limit negative plays, ranking No. 14 in TFL rate and pressure rate allowed. South Dakota State has generated a tackle for loss on 10.22% of snaps while creating pressure on 41.75% of all dropbacks. Montana's key to success lies in the quick passing game.

On the other side of the ball, everything starts with South Dakota State's explosive rushing attack. The Jackrabbits rank No. 2 in yards per carry and No. 3 in yards per play. The Jackrabbits excel at limiting negative plays, ranking No. 1 in TFL rate allowed (4.02%). Montana's defense has taken a significant step back from a season ago. The most troubling statistic for this matchup is Montana allowing over four yards per carry, ranking No. 14 among playoff teams.

No. 11 Villanova at No. 6 Incarnate Word

	Incarnate Word	Villanova
Off. Success Rate	44.95%	43.54%
Yards Per Play	6.23	5.32
Red Zone TD%	58.49%	70.0%
Yards Per Carry	4.78	4.59
Yards Per Pass	7.56	6.34
TFL% Allowed	7.83%	8.29%
Pressure% Allowed	14.66%	21.59%
TO%	1.84%	1.36%
Def. Success Rate	37.29%	39.15%
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.10	5.17
Def. Red Zone TD%	36.11%	56.41%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.76	4.16
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.45	6.42
TFL%	9.87%	8.48%
Pressure%	38.72%	41.56%
TO% Forced	3.37%	2.29%

Offensive Rank: Villanova (15th), Incarnate Word (13th)
Defensive Rank: Villanova (17th), Incarnate Word (3rd)

Villanova escaped with a 22-17 win over Eastern Kentucky in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. Incarnate Word's defense has been elite in red zone defense, creating negative plays and forcing turnovers. The Cardinals only allow a touchdown on 36.1% of red zone attempts while forcing a turnover on 3.4% of snaps. Last week, Villanova allowed nine tackles for loss and turned the ball over three times. This could be a tough matchup for the Wildcats' offense, but the path to success is there. The Wildcats will need to run the ball effectively, slowing the game's tempo down and limiting possessions for the Incarnate Word offense. Incarnate Word has allowed over 200 yards rushing in both losses this season.

On the other hand, Zach Calzada and the Incarnate Word offense have a balanced attack, but they have struggled with consistency this season. Despite the reputation for explosive plays, the Cardinals have only posted a 44.95% success rate, ranking No. 12 among playoff teams. The strength of this offense is pass protection. The Cardinals have allowed a pressure rate of 14.66%, ranking No. 3 among the postseason teams. Villanova's defense is highly talented in the secondary, holding opponents to 6.42 yards per pass attempt. The problem is that the run defense has taken a step back, allowing over four yards per carry.

No. 10 Rhode Island at No. 7 Mercer

	Mercer	Rhode Island
Off. Success Rate	43.31%	42.54%
Yards Per Play	6.00	5.84
Red Zone TD%	57.45%	58.14%
Yards Per Carry	4.23	4.46
Yards Per Pass	8.67	7.61
TFL% Allowed	10.70%	8.11%
Pressure% Allowed	23.42%	20.17%
TO%	2.61%	3.24%
Def. Success Rate	30.86%	41.51%
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.83	4.92
Def. Red Zone TD%	53.13%	62.50%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	2.26	3.35
Yards Per Pass Allowed	7.04	6.50
TFL%	12.65%	9.76%
Pressure%	48.67%	37.14%
TO% Forced	4.00%	1.88%

Offensive Rank: Rhode Island (16th), Mercer (19th)
Defensive Rank: Rhode Island (18th), Mercer (2nd)

Rhode Island survived in the first round against Central Connecticut State, escaping with a 21-17 win over the Blue Devils. The biggest question this weekend is how many points Rhode Island can score against this Mercer defense. Mercer leads the nation in defensive success rate, headlined by the front seven's ability to stop the run and generate negative plays. The Bears have held opponents to 2.26 yards per carry and created a tackle-for-loss on 12.65% of defensive snaps while leading all postseason teams with a pressure rate of 48.67%. Rhode Island ranks last among playoff teams in turnover rate and has struggled to generate explosive plays on the ground. The key to success for the Rams will be quarterback Hunter Helms making plays downfield but protecting the ball against a Mercer defense, forcing a turnover on 4% of all defensive snaps.

The Rams will need this to be a low-scoring game. Rhode Island's defense has excelled in generating negative plays and limiting explosive plays. It will be interesting to see how the Rhode Island front seven matches up with the Mercer offense, who will aim to establish the run with Dwayne McGee. The weakness of Rhode Island's defense has been getting off the field quickly, ranking No. 21 among playoff teams in defensive success rate.

UT Martin at No. 1 Montana State

	Montana State	UT Martin
Off. Success Rate	54.66%	40.83%
Yards Per Play	7.50	5.90
Red Zone TD%	80.39%	62.50%
Yards Per Carry	6.94	4.51
Yards Per Pass	8.77	7.78
TFL% Allowed	4.41%	9.55%
Pressure% Allowed	14.13%	26.53%
TO%	1.01%	2.09%
Def. Success Rate	34.02%	36.92%
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.85	5.09
Def. Red Zone TD%	70.37%	60.98%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.88	3.27
Yards Per Pass Allowed	5.74	6.32
TFL%	9.29%	9.40%
Pressure%	38.75%	36.71%
TO% Forced	1.91%	2.88%

Offensive Rank: UT Martin (20th), Montana State (1st)
Defensive Rank: UT Martin (8th), Montana State (5th)

UT Martin had one of the most dominant performances of the season, defeating New Hampshire 41-10 in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. This is one of the most interesting second-round matchups that Montana State could have had. We all know Montana State will lean on a dominant offensive line and explosive rushing attack. UT Martin's front seven has been impressive, holding opponents to 3.27 yards per carry and forcing a tackle for loss on 9.4% of defensive snaps. The issue for UT Martin has been red zone defense, allowing teams to score touchdowns on 61% of red zone attempts.

Montana State ranks No. 1 among playoff teams in success rate, yards per play, and yards per carry. Even with the success on the ground, the Bobcats rank No. 3 in yards per pass and have done an excellent job at protecting Mellott, ranking No. 2 in pressure rate allowed.

Montana State's defensive improvement is something that many have overlooked this season. The Bobcats rank No. 2 among postseason teams in defensive success rate, led by the secondary that ranks No. 2 in yards per pass allowed. UT Martin's offense has struggled against elite defenses this season. The Skyhawks must lean on their rushing attack while avoiding turnovers to limit possessions for the Montana State offense.

No. 15 Abilene Christian at No. 2 North Dakota State

	North Dakota State	Abilene Christian
Off. Success Rate	54.03%	46.07%
Yards Per Play	6.46	6.56
Red Zone TD%	80.00%	66.67%
Yards Per Carry	4.93	5.01
Yards Per Pass	9.14	7.74
TFL% Allowed	6.11%	6.84%
Pressure% Allowed	16.96%	22.50%
TO%	0.37%	1.82%
Def. Success Rate	40.19%	42.63%
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.56	6.16
Def. Red Zone TD%	53.13%	56.25%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.74	4.68
Yards Per Pass Allowed	7.54	7.90
TFL%	9.33%	8.05%
Pressure%	44.84%	33.18%
TO% Forced	2.87%	1.46%

Offensive Rank: ACU (7th), NDSU (2nd)
Defensive Rank: ACU (24th), NDSU (6th)

Abilene Christian dominated Northern Arizona in a 24-0 shutout victory in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. Everything starts with quarterback Cam Miller, who leads one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. North Dakota State leads all postseason teams in turnover rate and ranks No. 2 in success rate, red zone efficiency, and yards per pass attempt. On paper, this appears to be a mismatch against an Abilene Christian defense that ranked last among postseason teams in defensive success rate, yards per play allowed, yards per carry allowed, and yards per pass attempt allowed. Despite this, Abilene Christian had its best defensive performance of the season in the first round. The Wildcats need another dominant performance to pull off the upset this weekend.

The most intriguing matchup in this game will be North Dakota State's defense against Abilene Christian's offense. The Wildcats have the weapons to give the Bison some problems, similar to the 2022 Incarnate Word offense. Sam Hicks has been a consistent option at running back, while the Wildcats have multiple 1,000-yard wide receivers. The health of quarterback Maverick McIvor is the question mark, but if he is healthy, then the Bison defense could be tested this weekend. North Dakota State's defense has allowed plenty of explosive plays, ranking No. 21 in yards per play allowed and No. 23 in yards per pass allowed.

No. 13 Tarleton State at No. 4 South Dakota

	South Dakota	Tarleton State
Off. Success Rate	53.7%	48.56%
Yards Per Play	7.5	6.04
Red Zone TD%	74.36%	70.27%
Yards Per Carry	6.18	4.74
Yards Per Pass	9.60	8.32
TFL% Allowed	5.25%	7.10%
Pressure% Allowed	22.76%	12.04%
TO%	0.93%	1.49%
Def. Success Rate	36.57%	37.86%
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.61	5.22
Def. Red Zone TD%	62.96%	50.0%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.18	4.17
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.45	6.41
TFL%	8.05%	7.42%
Pressure%	38.10%	29.66%
TO% Forced	1.61%	3.18%

Offensive Rank: Tarleton State (5th), South Dakota (3rd)
Defensive Rank: Tarleton State (16th), South Dakota (7th)

Tarleton State overcame a slow start to defeat Drake in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. This game will be decided by Tarleton State's ability to put pressure on South Dakota's offense by making it a high-scoring game. The Texans have one of the most effective offenses in the nation, but it all starts with running back Kayvon Britten. Tarleton State has done an excellent job protecting quarterback Victor Gabalis but has not seen a defensive line like South Dakota this season. The Coyotes have held opponents to 3.18 yards per carry and rank No. 6 in defensive success rate.

The biggest problem in this matchup for Tarleton State is South Dakota's dominant rushing attack. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis lead one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 7.5 yards per play. Tarleton State has been average defensively, ranking No. 19 among playoff teams in rushing defense. One thing to watch is South Dakota has started slow at times this season, which could create some early opportunities for the Texans. If Tarleton State is going to pull off the upset, the Texans need a fast start this weekend in Vermillion.

No. 12 Illinois State at No. 5 UC Davis

	UC Davis	Illinois State
Off. Success Rate	47.10%	46.48%
Yards Per Play	6.44	5.86
Red Zone TD%	62.96%	64.44%
Yards Per Carry	4.07	4.57
Yards Per Pass	8.58	7.44
TFL% Allowed	7.63%	6.11%
Pressure% Allowed	16.94%	17.15%
TO%	1.85%	1.92%
Def. Success Rate	37.65%	40.13%
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.26	5.74
Def. Red Zone TD%	61.54%	56.0%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.59	4.44
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.82	7.28
TFL%	7.64%	8.66%
Pressure%	26.74%	41.96%
TO% Forced	2.46%	1.68%

Offensive Rank: Illinois State (12th), UC Davis (8th)
Defensive Rank: Illinois State (20th), UC Davis (14th)

Illinois State forced eight turnovers in a road victory over SEMO in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. This game has a chance to be one of the most competitive games of the weekend. Everything for UC Davis starts with running back Lan Larison, who leads the nation with 178 all-purpose yards per game. Quarterback Miles Hastings is having the best season of his career, leading the No. 5 passing attack among postseason teams. Can Illinois State's front seven take advantage of a questionable UC Davis offensive line? The Redbirds rank No. 12 in tackle-for-loss and No. 8 in pressure rates but have struggled when the front seven does not force negative plays. Hastings could take advantage of the No. 21 passing defense in the postseason if the Redbirds cannot generate pressure.

Illinois State's offense will be the key to keeping this game close. The UC Davis defense has struggled to generate pressure, which could create opportunities for Tommy Rittenhouse and wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz to make some plays early. The issue for Illinois State is the lack of success on the ground, as highlighted by last week's performance against SEMO. The Aggies have done a great job against the run, which could make Illinois State one-dimensional this weekend.

Lehigh at No. 8 Idaho

	Idaho	Lehigh
Off. Success Rate	43.40%	44.19%
Yards Per Play	6.27	5.92
Red Zone TD%	68.89%	69.23%
Yards Per Carry	4.79	5.22
Yards Per Pass	8.25	7.46
TFL% Allowed	8.50%	6.92%
Pressure% Allowed	18.11%	23.17%
TO%	1.78%	2.46%
Def. Success Rate	42.25%	39.76%
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.21	4.56
Def. Red Zone TD%	60.98%	75.0%
Yards Per Carry Allowed	3.61	3.83
Yards Per Pass Allowed	6.87	5.42
TFL%	8.04%	8.14%
Pressure%	39.75%	31.85%
TO% Forced	1.80%	2.29%

Offensive Rank: Lehigh (14th), Idaho (9th)
Defensive Rank: Lehigh (21st), Idaho (15th)

Lehigh stunned Richmond in the biggest upset of the first round of the FCS Playoffs. The Hawks have a very narrow path to victory in this game. Defensively, Lehigh has done an excellent job at limiting explosive plays in the air, allowing only 5.42 yards per pass attempt. It will be an intriguing matchup against an Idaho offense that sets up downfield shots with a strong rushing attack. Lehigh has allowed a touchdown on 75% of red zone attempts, while Idaho ranks as one of the most efficient offenses in the red zone. If Lehigh is going to win this game, the Hawks will have to force Idaho to kick field goals in the red zone.

The Vandals have done an excellent job pressuring opposing quarterbacks, which could be problematic for a Lehigh offensive line, allowing pressure on 23.2% of snaps. Idaho generates pressure on 40% of dropbacks, ranking No. 10 among postseason teams. Lehigh's offense depends on the run, led by Luke Yoder and Jaden Green, who have averaged over 5.2 yards per carry. The Vandals have done an excellent job against the run, allowing only 3.61 yards per carry.