Behind The Numbers: Week 5 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | 2 Hours Ago

Montana running back Eli Gillman / Tommy Martino (Montana Athletics)

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 5 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 5?

Montana running back Eli Gillman / Tommy Martino (Montana Athletics)

Montana 52, Eastern Washington 49

Success Rate: Montana (57%), Eastern Washington (56%)

This was one of the closest games of the weekend, as both teams combined for over 1,200 yards of total offense. After back-to-back punts to start the second half, neither team attempted to punt the rest of the game. Montana converted all three of their fourth down attempts, headlined by an impressive throw from Logan Fife on Montana's final touchdown. Eastern Washington stole the momentum with an onside kick and capitalized on four Montana penalties to extend drives.

Montana was able to escape with a victory due to the offense's ability to generate explosive plays. The Grizzlies averaged 9.4 yards per carry and posted multiple runs of 40 or more yards. The list of offensive standouts is long, but wide receiver Junior Bergen shined with seven receptions for 150 receiving yards and one touchdown. Eastern Washington's Efton Chism III led the Eagles with eight receptions for 107 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Richmond 27, Elon 17

Success Rate: Richmond (42%), Elon (36%)

This was an important matchup for the CAA race, which could determine at-large bids later this season. The Spiders won a defensive battle in which neither team found much down-to-down success. Despite the low success rates, both teams leaned on explosive plays as Richmond averaged over 7.0 yards per play and Elon averaged 6.3. The Spiders produced six explosive plays, highlighted by Zach Palmer-Smith's 56-yard touchdown run. Linebacker Quantrail Morris-Walker also had a key interception return for a touchdown, while defensive back CJ Fraser had an interception that led to another scoring drive. Richmond's defense generated plenty of negative plays, finishing with a tackle-for-loss rate of over 10%.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

UC Davis wide receiver Chaz Davis / UC Davis Athletics

UC Davis 28, Idaho 26

Success Rate: UC Davis (42%), Idaho (44%)

Quarterback Miles Hastings was excellent in this game, completing 25-of-32 attempts for 248 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Vandals were slightly more effective down-to-down, but the turnover battle changed the game. Idaho turned the ball over three times inside UC Davis territory, while the Aggies only turned the ball over once. The Aggies struggled to run the ball, recording 26 rushing yards on 31 attempts, while Idaho found success with 185 rushing yards. Idaho's inability to score in the red zone was a huge storyline, only scoring three points on two trips inside the six-yard line.

Maine 34, UAlbany 20

Success Rate: Maine (42%), UAlbany (54%)

This is one of the most lopsided results of the weekend as UAlbany's struggles continue. The Great Danes averaged over 5.0 yards per play and posted a success rate of 54%, but three turnovers led to another disappointing loss. Quarterback Myles Burkett had three turnovers, including a 78-yard interception return for a touchdown by Jamaree Gibson. Maine quarterback Carter Peevy did not produce many explosive plays but was efficient and protected the football. Peevy completed 20-of-24 attempts for 193 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 5?

Zach Melendez (NAU Athletics)

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

North Dakota State 42, Illinois State 10

Success Rate: North Dakota State (57%), Illinois State (24%)

After several weeks of questionable defensive execution, the Bison showed their potential along the line of scrimmage. This was the most lopsided success rate of the weekend, as Illinois State never found any momentum offensively. The Redbirds did not have an offensive drive over six plays until the fourth quarter and only recorded 206 offensive yards. North Dakota State finished the game with a tackle-for-loss rate of 10.2% and forced five sacks. Offensively, the Bison continued to dominate with 7.7 yards per play. North Dakota State leads the nation with a success rate of 55% over the first five weeks of the season.

Northern Arizona 34, Sacramento State 16

Success Rate: Northern Arizona (52%), Sacramento State (26%)

On the surface, this game could look like a fluke, but Northern Arizona's defense made some outstanding plays in the second half. The Lumberjacks had a fumble return for a touchdown to extend their lead to 20-9, then an interception on the next drive led to a one-play scoring drive that sealed the game. Northern Arizona scored three offensive touchdowns, with two coming on one-play drives.

Sacramento State's defense was outstanding, but the offensive inconsistency put the defense in terrible situations. The Hornets only managed 4.0 yards per play and averaged less than 2.5 yards per carry. Quarterback Carson Conklin only passed for 180 yards with two interceptions, both of which led to touchdowns for the Lumberjacks. Safety Alex McLaughlin led the Lumberjacks with nine total tackles, two tackles for loss, two sacks, and a forced fumble. Quarterback Ty Pennington was efficient, completing 81% of his passes with two touchdowns. The bright spot for Sacramento State was the front seven, which posted a tackle-for-loss rate of 11.8%.

South Dakota 42, Southern Illinois 13

Success Rate: South Dakota (64%), Southern Illinois (35%)

In South Dakota's first game against an FCS scholarship opponent, the Yotes posted the highest success rate of the weekend. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis combined for 271 rushing yards and averaged 6.8 yards per carry. The formula for this offense is simple. Establish the rushing attack, which allows Aidan Bouman to push the ball downfield for explosive passing plays. Bouman finished with 247 passing yards and two touchdowns, including an 80-yard touchdown to tight end JJ Galbreath.

Southern Illinois struggled rushing the football, averaging less than 2.5 yards per carry. Before DJ Williams' injury, the Salukis averaged over 5.0 yards per play but have only averaged 2.2 yards per carry in the two games since. The Salukis have plenty of weapons at wide receiver, but the lack of a run game has limited the opportunities to stretch the field. The road does not get any easier for Southern Illinois, with games against Illinois State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and Missouri State on the horizon.

Quick Hits:

• There were multiple dominant performances this weekend. Here are some of the most notable games:
  - Central Arkansas (54%), Lamar (32%)
  - Mercer (40%), Wofford (21%)
  - William & Mary (58%), Hampton (37%)
  - Tarleton State (61%), Southeastern Louisiana (34%)
  - Tennessee Tech (51%), Gardner-Webb (31%)
  - UT Martin (43%), Kennesaw State (29%)

• Villanova posted another dominant success rate over Long Island (49% to 24%), but a late score by the Sharks made the final score look less impressive. Despite the final scores leading many to question Villanova's potential, the Wildcats have been dominant down-to-down this season. The Wildcats have the nation's fourth-best combined success rate margin, including an FBS matchup against Maryland. Villanova's success rate margin only trails Mercer, Montana State, and South Dakota.

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FCS Football Recap: Week 5 Takeaways
Week 5 FCS Football Preview & Predictions
Behind The Numbers: Week 4 FCS Football Review

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