Behind The Numbers: Who Should Be The Starting Quarterback At Montana?

Timothy Rosario | Nov 11, 2024

Montana quarterback Logan Fife / Tommy Martino (Montana Athletics)

No. 4 UC Davis defeated No. 7 Montana 30-14 in one of the biggest games of the Week 11 slate. The Grizzlies scored on their opening drive but were held to only seven points the rest of the game by a stout UC Davis defense. The lack of offensive production highlighted an important conversation around Montana's quarterback situation.

Montana continued to rotate quarterbacks on Saturday night, as Logan Fife and Keali'i Ah Yat both saw significant action. Fife started the game and played six drives, while Ah Yat led the offense on seven drives. Both quarterbacks had their struggles, but each led one scoring drive.

I have voiced my opinion on this debate over the past few weeks, but it is clear that Montana's offense is much improved when the Grizzlies commit to one quarterback. The offense looks disjointed and out of rhythm when the Grizzlies rotate quarterbacks throughout the game. This weekend's performance further confirms that belief.

I wanted to examine how Montana's unique approach to quarterback rotation impacts its offense. The hypothesis is that rotating quarterbacks negatively impact that quarterback's performance and the entire offense's continuity, including the rushing attack.

We have separated the Montana offense into three categories: games in which Ah Yat took most of the snaps, games in which Fife took most of the snaps, and games in which Montana rotated both players. We have excluded the Morehead State game due to its overmatched nature.

We look behind the numbers on how Montana's quarterback rotation impacts the offense.

Offense with Keali'i Ah Yat (2 Games)

North Dakota, Western Carolina
Yards Per Pass Attempt: 5.19
Yards Per Play: 5.83
Success Rate: 46%
Points Per Game: 36.5

Offense with Logan Fife (3 Games)

Eastern Washington, Weber State, Northern Arizona
Yards Per Pass Attempt: 7.82
Yards Per Play: 6.9
Success Rate: 55%
Points Per Game: 43.7

Offense With Full Quarterback Rotation (4 Games)

(Missouri State, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly, UC Davis)
Yards Per Pass Attempt: 6.88
Yards Per Play: 5.24
Success Rate: 42%
Points Per Game: 27.2

Looking at the data, it is clear that Montana's offense has been more efficient when the Grizzlies allow one quarterback to take a majority of the snaps. Success rate and points per game are the two biggest indicators of this. The only exception is passing yards per attempt, which have significantly decreased with Ah Yat at quarterback. However, the increase in yards per play shows that the rushing attack is elevated due to Ah Yat's athleticism.

It appears that the famous John Madden quote lives on. "If you have two quarterbacks, you have none." The statistics match what most people have seen on film this season, which is the offense seems to struggle with the quarterback rotation.

If we can accept this premise, then the better question is, who should Montana move forward with as the starting quarterback? Let's take a look at their individual performances this season.

Keali'i Ah Yat	Logan Fife
822 Passing Yards	1,479 Passing Yards
5 Passing TDs	11 Passing TDs
3 INTs	2 INTs
59.4% Completion Percentage	66.8% Completion Percentage
5.7 Yards Per Attempt	7.7 Yards Per Attempt
124 Rushing Yards (2.8 YPC)	78 Rushing Yards (2.1 YPC)
7 Rushing TDs	4 Rushing TDs

The basic comparison clearly favors Logan Fife in nearly every category. However, as I stated earlier, I believe both players have been negatively impacted by the constant rotation. Neither player can get into the flow of the game, which leads to inconsistency for both players.

I wanted to take a deeper look into both players' performances this season. The following stats are the most important aspect of this analysis. We analyzed every drive each quarterback has played this season, excluding the Morehead State game and any drives that resulted in the victory formation to end the game.

Keali'i Ah Yat	Logan Fife
Total Offensive Drives: 48	Total Offensive Drives: 44
Offensive Points: 117	Offensive Points: 186
Total Yards: 1,427	Total Yards: 2,400
Avg. Per Drive: 2.4 Points, 29.7 Yards	Avg. Per Drive: 4.2 Points, 54.5 Yards

The difference between the two quarterbacks is startling. Montana's offense has almost been twice as good with Fife compared to Ah Yat. In fact, 2.4 points per drive is one of the worst in the nation, while 4.2 points per drive would rank among the best at the FCS level.

Some fans have stated that Montana should prioritize Ah Yat's development, but I would argue that Montana has already done that. He has seen more action than almost any other redshirt freshman in the nation, but there is a bigger issue here. Montana is much more effective with Fife at quarterback. If the Grizzlies are going to emerge as a true national title contender, then it is clear that Fife should be the starting quarterback moving forward.

Let's take one last look at last night's performance. Fife led the Grizzlies to a touchdown on the first drive of the game. On his second drive, the Grizzlies were forced to punt, but many forget that it was Cole Grossman's drop that ended Montana's drive. Fife put the ball in the perfect spot, but Grossman failed to extend the drive. The Grizzlies benched Fife on the next drive, but what if Grossman makes that catch for the first down?

The entire game could have changed if the Grizzlies allowed Fife to find his rhythm in the offense. It will be fascinating to see what this coaching staff does moving forward with a tough test against Montana State looming and a potential run in the FCS Playoffs.

At the end of the day, it is a disservice to this talented roster and these players not to give them the best chance to succeed. It's time to give the keys to Logan Fife as Montana looks to rebound against Portland State.

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