FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 13 (Week 12)

Timothy Rosario | Nov 13, 2024

Montana wide receiver Junior Bergen / Tommy Martino (Montana Athletics)

After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 12.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State, UC Davis

It was another dominant performance from Montana State, rushing for over 500 yards against Sacramento State. The Bobcats are a lock for the postseason but will need to win their final two games to secure their spot as a Top 2 seed. UC Davis is also a lock for the postseason and earned a massive ranked win over Montana in Week 11. The winner of this weekend's Montana State-UC Davis game will be in an excellent position for the No. 2 overall seed and possibly the No. 1 overall seed if North Dakota State drops a game.

Should Be In: Montana, Idaho

Montana remains in a decent position to make the playoffs despite the disappointing loss to UC Davis. The Grizzlies must avoid a letdown against Portland State to secure their spot, but an upset win over Montana State could position this team as a longshot for a Top 8 seed. Idaho earned its seventh win of the season with a victory over Portland State on the road. The Vandals are one win away from being a lock for the field; wins in both games should be enough to earn a Top 8 seed.

Work To Do: Northern Arizona

Northern Arizona has one of the most interesting resumes on the bubble this season. The Lumberjacks will be favored in their final two games, putting them at 8-4 overall and 7-3 against the FCS. They currently are No. 21 in the Massey Ratings, with a Top 30 strength of schedule, which makes them a strong option for one of the last at-large bids. The issue with their resume is that they will only have seven Division I wins since they played Lincoln (CA) earlier this season. Northern Arizona's losses are against ranked opponents but lack a signature win, which jeopardizes its postseason hopes.

Big South-OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: SEMO, UT Martin, Tennessee State

The Big South-OVC race appeared straightforward entering Week 11, but Lindenwood's upset win over SEMO drastically changed the outlook. The Redhawks drop to the "Work To Do" category because they must win their remaining two games to clinch the auto-bid. If SEMO loses again, UT Martin can win the auto-bid if the Skyhawks finish the season with two wins. The Skyhawks have won six consecutive games, including an FBS win over Kennesaw State, putting them in position for an at-large bid if SEMO wins the auto-bid.

Tennessee State is the wild card in the Big South-OVC after a win over Western Illinois. The Tigers could finish 9-3 overall with a win over SEMO to end the season, which would help UT Martin clinch the auto-bid and put SEMO and Tennessee State on the bubble for the postseason. Both teams would have a similar strength of schedule, but the Tigers would have the head-to-head advantage. First, Tennessee State must avoid an upset against Gardner-Webb before the massive matchup against SEMO in Week 13.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Rhode Island, Richmond, Villanova

Despite losing to Delaware in Week 11, Rhode Island remains in an excellent spot to make the field with an 8-2 overall record. The Rams are 8-1 against the FCS and two winnable games against UAlbany and Bryant to end the season. Richmond has won eight consecutive games since an 0-2 start, including a quality win over Delaware. The Spiders can clinch the auto-bid with wins over Hampton and William & Mary. Villanova improved to 8-2 overall and 8-1 against the FCS with a win over North Carolina A&T. The Wildcats have a quality win over Stony Brook and have a chance to solidify their resume with a win over Delaware in Week 13.

Work To Do: Stony Brook, William & Mary, New Hampshire

Despite having eight wins, Stony Brook remains in the "Work To Do" category because of its resume. The Seawolves have a weaker strength of schedule than Rhode Island, lost head-to-head to Villanova, and don't have a signature win as Richmond does over Delaware. Stony Brook will end the season against New Hampshire and Monmouth; one win will be enough to lock the Seawolves into the field.

William & Mary suffered another disappointing loss in Week 11, falling to Elon, putting the Tribe in danger of being eliminated. The Tribe are 6-4 overall and must win their two remaining games to stay alive in the playoff race. A win over Richmond is the key to their playoff hopes, but the outlook is still bleak at 8-4 overall. New Hampshire has won back-to-back games and moved to 6-4 overall with an outside shot at receiving an at-large bid. The Wildcats have a Top 25 strength of schedule and would have an interesting argument to get the last at-large bid this season.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State, South Dakota State

After a much-needed bye week, North Dakota State prepares for two massive matchups against Missouri State and South Dakota. With wins in both, the Bison will secure the No. 1 overall seed but are most likely a lock for a Top 8 seed regardless of the results. South Dakota State dominated North Dakota, earning another ranked win for its resume. The Jackrabbits should feel great about their chances for a Top 3 seed with games against Southern Illinois and Missouri State to end the season.

Should Be In: South Dakota, Illinois State

South Dakota dispatched Indiana State in a 49-0 blowout victory, moving to 7-2 overall and 6-1 against the FCS. The Coyotes control their destiny for a Top 4 seed, but it will be a difficult road with games against North Dakota and North Dakota State to end the season. A win over North Dakota will most likely lock the Coyotes into the field, but a loss could create an interesting conversation due to the lack of Division I wins. South Dakota only has six Division I wins due to playing a Division II opponent and the Portland State game being canceled. Will six Division I wins be enough to justify putting this team into the field? The committee punished Incarnate Word and Florida A&M the past two years for this, so will they be consistent?

Illinois State joins the "Should Be In" tier after an impressive win over Northern Iowa. The Redbirds need one more win to reach eight wins, which will most likely lock them into the playoff bracket. They will finish the season with Indiana State and North Dakota, which are winnable games.

Work To Do: North Dakota

North Dakota is on the verge of elimination after a blowout loss to South Dakota State. The Hawks are 5-5 overall and will need to win their final two games against South Dakota and Illinois State to be considered for one of the last at-large bids.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Robert Morris, Central Connecticut State

Duquesne took a commanding lead for the auto-bid, defeating Robert Morris in Week 11. The Dukes will clinch the auto-bid with a win over Wagner and a Central Connecticut State loss this weekend. If the Dukes lose, the race gets complicated with a three-way tie, leaving Central Connecticut State and Robert Morris alive going into the season's final two weeks.

Patriot

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Holy Cross, Bucknell, Lehigh

The Patriot League will be a one-bid conference this season. This past weekend, chaos ensued after Lehigh upset Holy Cross in a 10-7 defensive showdown. Lehigh, Holy Cross, and Bucknell are tied at 3-1 in conference play, but Bucknell controls its destiny due to a head-to-head win over Lehigh. If the Bison defeat Holy Cross in Week 12, they will receive the auto-bid to the FCS Playoffs.

Pioneer

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake

The Pioneer League will be a one-bid conference, but the race for the auto-bid appears to be coming to a close. Drake has separated itself from the rest of the field after a 22-19 win over St. Thomas. The Bulldogs are 6-0 in conference play, while four teams are tied at 4-2 after Week 11. Drake will clinch the auto-bid with a win over Morehead State on Saturday.

SoCon

Locks: Mercer

Mercer clinched the SoCon auto-bid with a 34-0 win over VMI on Saturday. The Bears hold the tiebreaker over any other team in contention for the conference title, even if they fall to Furman in two weeks. All the focus will now shift to securing a Top 8 seed, which will require Mercer to finish 10-2 overall with a win over Furman. Before that, the Bears must stay healthy in an FBS matchup against Alabama in Week 12.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina

ETSU kept its playoff hopes alive with a win over Western Carolina. The Bucs should receive an at-large bid with wins over Furman and VMI to end the season, but there is no room for error. The big issue is they will only be able to reach seven Division I wins without a signature win. Their resume will be similar to Northern Arizona, which could be an interesting battle for one of the final at-large bids.

Western Carolina falls to 5-4 against the FCS and will need help from other teams to have a chance at the postseason. The Catamounts should win their final two games against VMI and Samford, but that may not be enough. Chattanooga has the best chance at an at-large bid, sitting at 6-2 against the FCS with a head-to-head win over ETSU. The Mocs will need to avoid a letdown against Samford and Austin Peay, but an 8-2 record against the FCS will be enough to potentially earn a Top 16 seed.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: Incarnate Word

Incarnate Word improved to 8-2 overall with an impressive 41-20 victory over Lamar. The Cardinals were No. 9 in the committee's midseason rankings and have continued to win games, putting them in position for a Top 8 seed. A win this weekend over Stephen F. Austin will move Incarnate Word into the "Lock" category.

Work To Do: Stephen F. Austin, Southeastern Louisiana

Stephen F. Austin is on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention following a loss to East Texas A&M. The Lumberjacks have two chances to earn quality wins against Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian to end the season. The outlook is bleak due to quarterback Sam Vidlak's injury.

Southeastern Louisiana is one of the intriguing teams on the bubble this season. The Lions will face Nicholls next weekend to end the season, likely finishing with a 7-5 overall record and 7-3 against the FCS. Southeastern Louisiana's losses have come against Top 15 programs, including two 3-point losses to Tarleton State and Incarnate Word. The Lions will still only have seven Division I wins but will most likely have a Top 30 strength of schedule.

UAC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, Southern Utah, Eastern Kentucky

The chaotic 4-way tie stays alive after another weekend of chaos in the UAC. Eastern Kentucky continues to find ways to win, defeating Central Arkansas for its second consecutive ranked win. Abilene Christian survived a scare against Austin Peay, while Tarleton State rebounded with a win over West Georgia. Southern Utah remains on the bubble after a win over North Alabama in Week 12. The Thunderbirds will need to win their final two games against Central Arkansas and Utah Tech, but will still need help to have a realistic shot at the postseason. They would only have seven Division I wins with no signature wins.

Eastern Kentucky remains in the best position to earn an at-large bid due to back-to-back ranked wins. The Colonels also had two FBS losses, which could help them finish 8-2 against the FCS. They will still need to win their final two games against North Alabama and Austin Peay but are in a solid position to qualify for the postseason. Central Arkansas faces a must-win situation to end the season but still may need some help to receive an at-large bid.

Abilene Christian will travel to Tarleton State this weekend in one of the biggest games of the Week 12 slate. If the Wildcats win, they would win the UAC and earn the auto-bid, but a Tarleton State win would set up a massive matchup against Central Arkansas in Week 13.

Note: North Carolina Central is the strongest playoff contender from the HBCU conferences. After losing to South Carolina State, the Eagles could win out and finish 9-3 but would not receive the bid to the Celebration Bowl. North Carolina Central would have a quality win over Alabama State but a strength of schedule outside the Top 80. The Eagles would not have a strong resume as last season, but they will be considered for one of the at-large bids.

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