FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 19 (Week 13)

Timothy Rosario | Nov 19, 2024

Montana defensive end Hayden Harris / Ryan Brennecke (Montana Athletics)

After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 13.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State, UC Davis, Idaho, Montana

Montana State clinched the Big Sky auto-bid with a 30-28 win over UC Davis. Both teams are still playing for a Top 5 seed, while the Bobcats will have a case for the No. 1 overall seed with a win over Montana. The Grizzlies improved to 8-3 overall with a win over Portland State, which moved them into the "Lock" tier. Montana could push for a Top 8 seed with an upset this weekend but will most likely be seeded between No. 11-16. Idaho also secured a spot in the postseason with a win over Weber State. The Vandals can earn a Top 6 seed with a win over Idaho State to end the season.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Northern Arizona

Northern Arizona received plenty of help this weekend after several bubble teams suffered upset losses. The Lumberjacks will only have seven Division I wins and lack a signature win, which could jeopardize their playoff hopes. Luckily, the metrics favor Northern Arizona over other teams on the bubble. They will finish in the Top 15 of the Massey Ratings and have a Top 25 strength of schedule. The Lumberjacks must avoid a letdown performance against Eastern Washington in Week 13.

Big South-OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: SEMO

SEMO improved to 9-2 overall with a shootout win over Western Illinois and remains in control of the conference's auto-bid. The Redhawks will clinch the auto-bid with a win over Tennessee State, but a loss could lead to a chaotic tiebreaker scenario for the conference. If UT Martin wins this weekend, SEMO will secure the auto-bid regardless of the result against Tennessee State.

If SEMO fails to get the auto-bid, the Redhawks would have a 9-2 record against the FCS, a strength of schedule in the Top 85, and a quality win over UT Martin. With nine Division I wins, SEMO would receive an at-large bid, but everything will be simple if the Redhawks win on Saturday.

Work To Do: UT Martin, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

The rest of the Big South-OVC is filled with chaos following Week 12. Tennessee Tech stunned UT Martin in Week 12, while Tennessee State kept its at-large hopes alive with a win over Gardner-Webb. These three teams all sit at 5-2 in conference play, while Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State can win the auto-bid this weekend.

UT Martin does not have a chance to win the auto-bid but should be able to earn an at-large bid with a win over Lindenwood. The Skyhawks have an FBS win over Kennesaw State and a Top 50 strength of schedule.

Below are the tiebreaker scenarios for the Big South-OVC entering Week 13.

SEMO wins auto-bid:
1. Win vs Tennessee State
2. 4-Way Tie at 6-2 (TSU, SEMO, UTM, TTU)
3. 3-Way Tie at 6-2 (TSU, UTM, SEMO)

Tennessee State wins auto-bid:
1. 2-Way Tie at 6-2 (SEMO, TSU)

Tennessee Tech wins auto-bid:
1. 3-Way Tie at 6-2 (SEMO, TSU, TTU)

CAA

Locks: Richmond, Rhode Island

Richmond and Rhode Island are the first CAA teams to reach "Lock" status. The Spiders clinched the auto-bid this weekend with their win over Hampton and will have a chance to earn a Top 8 seed against William & Mary. Rhode Island had an impressive comeback win over UAlbany, improving to 9-1 against the FCS. Their only loss is a three-point loss to Delaware and will be heavily favored against Bryant this weekend.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Stony Brook, William & Mary, New Hampshire, Villanova

Stony Brook and Villanova suffered upset losses in Week 12, negatively impacting their playoff resumes for an at-large bid. The Wildcats have an advantage due to a head-to-head win over the Seawolves, but both teams must win next weekend to secure their spot in the field. Villanova faces a difficult challenge against Delaware, while Stony Brook faces a dangerous Monmouth team.

New Hampshire added to the chaos on the bubble with an upset over Stony Brook in Week 12. With a win over Maine, the Wildcats have a chance to reach eight wins and could secure an at-large bid. William & Mary does not have a strong resume but could create chaos with an upset victory over Richmond. It would be the first win over an opponent with a winning record this season. The Tribe may still need help to make the field and will be in the conversation for one of the final four spots with a win this weekend.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State, South Dakota State, South Dakota, Illinois State
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: None

There is no chaos in the MVFC entering the final week of the regular season. These four teams have all secured a spot in the field, but there will be plenty of intrigue for seeding purposes in Week 13. Illinois State will make the field regardless of what happens against North Dakota, but a win could push the Redbirds into Top 16 consideration.

North Dakota State and South Dakota will meet in the most important matchup of the weekend. With a win, the Bison would secure the No. 1 overall seed, while the Coyotes could create some uncertainty with an upset victory. If the Coyotes lose, they will only have seven Division I wins and could be removed from Top 8 seed conversations. South Dakota State will most likely secure a Top 3 seed with a win over Missouri State. The Jackrabbits could win the auto-bid with a win over Missouri State and a South Dakota win over North Dakota State.

Below are the tiebreaker scenarios for the MVFC entering Week 13.

North Dakota State wins the auto-bid:
1. Win vs South Dakota
2. 3-Way Tie At 7-1 (USD, Missouri State, NDSU)

South Dakota State wins the auto-bid:
1. 3-Way Tie at 7-1 (USD, NDSU, SDSU)

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Central Connecticut State

The NEC auto-bid will go to the winner of a massive matchup between Duquesne and Central Connecticut State. The Blue Devils defeated Robert Morris last weekend to set up the winner-take-all game in Week 13. If the Dukes do not win the auto-bid, they will be an interesting team to evaluate. They would be 8-1 against the FCS, including a road win over Youngstown State, but a strength of schedule of No. 102 would most likely keep them out of the field.

Patriot

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Holy Cross, Lehigh

The Patriot League chaos continued after Holy Cross defeated Bucknell, eliminating the Bison from playoff contention. Lehigh controls its destiny for the auto-bid, holding the head-to-head advantage over Holy Cross. If the Hawks defeat Lafayette this weekend, they will secure the auto-bid, but a loss would open the door for the Crusaders. Holy Cross would secure the auto-bid with a win over Georgetown and a Lehigh loss.

Pioneer

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, Morehead State, Butler

Drake will secure the auto-bid with a win over Stetson despite an upset loss to Morehead State last weekend. If the Bulldogs suffer another upset loss, there could be an interesting tiebreaker scenario between Butler, San Diego, and Morehead State.

Morehead State would clinch the auto-bid with a win over San Diego and losses from Drake and Butler, while Butler would win the auto-bid with a win over Presbyterian and losses by Drake and Morehead State. If Morehead State and Drake lose, the Bulldogs would still receive the auto-bid.

SoCon

Locks: Mercer

Mercer clinched the SoCon auto-bid two weeks ago against VMI. The Bears lost to Alabama this weekend, which does not impact their playoff resume. If the Bears defeat Furman this weekend, they should be a lock for a Top 8 seed and have an outside shot at a Top 5 seed with some help.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina

The SoCon experienced a doomsday scenario in Week 12, with multiple teams suffering stunning upset losses. ETSU, after losing to Furman, is most likely eliminated from postseason contention. The Buccaneers will only have six Division I wins and lack a signature win on their resume. Chattanooga has struggled without starting quarterback Chase Artopeous, falling to Samford this weekend. The Mocs face a must-win scenario against Austin Peay in Week 13 but may still need help making the field.

Western Carolina improved to 6-5 overall and 6-4 against the FCS with a win over VMI. The Catamounts must defeat Samford in Week 13, but reaching seven Division I wins would make this program an interesting bubble team. They would have the head-to-head win over Chattanooga, but the loss to Campbell may be the thing that keeps the Catamounts on the outside looking in.

Southland

Locks: Incarnate Word

Incarnate Word clinched the auto-bid with a win over Stephen F. Austin this weekend. The Cardinals improved to 9-2 overall and will have a strong argument for a Top 8 seed. They were ranked No. 9 in the committee's midseason rankings and have continued to win. The biggest criticism about their resume is the lack of signature wins, but Northern Arizona and Southeastern Louisiana have aged well. The Cardinals cannot afford a letdown performance against East Texas A&M, but a win should be enough to earn a Top 8 seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Southeastern Louisiana

Southeastern Louisiana remains on the bubble after a much-needed bye week. With a win over Nicholls, the Lions will finish 7-5 overall and 7-3 against the FCS, with all their losses coming against Top 15 opponents. Two of those three losses were by a combined six points, but the problem is that the Lions will only have seven Division I wins. The Lions will need several bubble teams to falter this weekend but could sneak into the postseason as one of the final four teams in the bracket.

UAC

Locks: Abilene Christian

Abilene Christian locked up the auto-bid after an impressive win over Tarleton State. If the Wildcats defeat Stephen F. Austin, they would be 9-2 against the FCS with quality wins over Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, and Eastern Kentucky. There is a strong argument that they deserve a Top 8 seed, but an upset loss to North Alabama may keep them at No. 9-12.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Tarleton State, Eastern Kentucky, Southern Utah, Central Arkansas

Tarleton State could be in the "Should Be In" tier with an 8-2 record against the FCS, but they lack a quality win right now. The Texans could still receive an at-large bid with a loss to Central Arkansas, but a win should be enough to earn a Top 16 seed.

Eastern Kentucky continues to find ways to win games, improving to 7-2 against the FCS with a comeback win over Austin Peay. The Colonels must defeat North Alabama to secure a spot in the field. Central Arkansas is on the fringe of the bubble but might have been eliminated with a loss to Southern Utah in Week 12. The loss of starting quarterback Will McElvain may be too much to overcome.

Southern Utah had a massive win over Central Arkansas in Week 12, keeping its postseason hopes alive. The Thunderbirds are heavy favorites over Utah Tech and should finish with seven Division I wins but lack a signature win. Three of their FCS losses have come against Top 15 opponents (Tarleton, UCD, ACU) by seven combined points, plus the Thunderbirds have an FBS win over UTEP. An upset loss against Idaho State may keep the Thunderbirds out of the postseason.

Note: North Carolina Central is the strongest playoff contender from the HBCU conferences. After losing to South Carolina State, the Eagles could win out and finish 9-3 but would not receive the bid to the Celebration Bowl. North Carolina Central would have a quality win over Alabama State but a strength of schedule outside the Top 80. The Eagles would not have a strong resume as last season, but they will be considered for one of the at-large bids.

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