FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 15 (Week 8)

Timothy Rosario | Oct 15, 2024

Montana State running back Scottre Humphrey / Brian Morse (Montana State Athletics)

In this story:

As conference play begins across the FCS, it is time to look closer at the FCS Playoff picture ahead of Week 8.

After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 8.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State

After a dominant win over Idaho, Montana State has reached seven wins and is the first "Lock" of the 2024 season. The Bobcats are rolling and will be heavy favorites in the next three games before ranked matchups against UC Davis and Montana at the end of the season. Montana State's focus now shifts to securing the No. 1 overall seed; winning out will be the key for the Bobcats.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Idaho, Montana, UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, Weber State, Eastern Washington

UC Davis continued to look impressive in a 56-10 win over Cal Poly. The Aggies will move to "Should Be In" with a win over Eastern Washington in Week 8. Idaho remains at this level after a loss to Montana State, but the Vandals' resume is still one of the best in the nation after they faced the nation's most difficult schedule. Montana strengthened its resume with a ranked victory over Northern Arizona. The Grizzlies will be able to stack wins over the next two weeks, which should secure their spot in the postseason.

Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Weber State suffered disappointing losses this weekend. With four losses, these teams will likely need to win out to secure a spot in the bracket. Eastern Washington sneaks into this tier after an impressive win over Sacramento State. The Eagles must pull off the upset over UC Davis to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Big South-OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: SEMO

SEMO has one of the best resumes in the FCS. The Redhawks are 6-0 against FCS competition, including a ranked win over Southern Illinois. Another factor here is that SEMO already holds a victory over UT Martin, which was projected to be the biggest competition for the conference title. The Redhawks have shifted their focus to securing a Top 8 seed.

Work To Do: UT Martin, Tennessee State

Due to the loss to SEMO, UT Martin will likely need to finish 9-3 and earn an at-large bid to the postseason. The Skyhawks should be favored in their remaining games, which could lead to their first appearance in the FCS Playoffs since 2021. Tennessee State remains the only other team in the conference with a chance to earn a spot in the field. The Tigers are 5-2 (3-1 Big South-OVC) after an impressive win over Eastern Illinois. They still have upcoming matchups against SEMO and UT Martin, giving the Tigers an opportunity to secure the auto bid.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Villanova, Stony Brook, Rhode Island, Richmond, New Hampshire, William & Mary, Maine, Monmouth, Towson, UAlbany

Due to the size of the conference, many teams in the CAA will not have a chance to play each other, creating a chaotic race for the postseason. There is a question about how many bids this conference deserves for the FCS Playoffs, but it seems safe to assume that at least three teams will find their way into the bracket.

Villanova and Rhode Island seem to be in the best position to secure a spot in the playoffs. Both are undefeated against FCS competition, but the Rams have been less than impressive over the past few weeks. Wiliam & Mary remains in a solid spot in this race, but a loss to Towson has created doubt surrounding the Tribe. Week 8 features multiple CAA games with playoff implications, including Stony Brook at Towson, Rhode Island at New Hampshire, and Villanova at Maine.

MVFC

Locks: None
Should Be In: South Dakota State, North Dakota State, South Dakota

All three programs are close to being locks for the postseason but need one or two more wins on their resumes. They have separated themselves from the rest of the conference and all are legitimate championship contenders. South Dakota State will travel to North Dakota State this weekend; the winner will move to "Lock" status next week. South Dakota can earn three ranked wins over the final five weeks, including a season-ending matchup against North Dakota.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Illinois State, Northern Iowa

The rest of this conference has been disappointing over the past few weeks, except for Missouri State, which is not eligible for the postseason. Youngstown State was eliminated after a 63-13 loss to South Dakota State, while Southern Illinois suffered its fifth loss of the season against North Dakota State. Northern Iowa needs to win its remaining games to have a shot at making the field, but the Panthers have lost four consecutive games.

Illinois State only has three losses but has continued to be unimpressive on the field. The Redbirds suffered a 41-7 loss to Missouri State but should be able to stack some wins against the bottom of the conference. North Dakota remains in the best position to make the playoffs and could jump into the next tier with a win over UNI this weekend.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris

Duquesne looks like the best team in the conference. The Dukes are 4-2 (2-0 NEC) and have won four consecutive games, including a win over Youngstown State. Their dominant 38-7 victory over Saint Francis further solidified the Dukes as the favorites. Central Connecticut State and Robert Morris are undefeated in conference play but have not shown the same potential as Duquesne.

Patriot

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Georgetown, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Bucknell

The Patriot League will be another one-bid league this season due to its poor performance in out-of-conference play. Georgetown had a massive victory over Lafayette, but at this point, who will get the auto bid is anyone's guess. Holy Cross leads the conference with a 2-0 record in league play, but Georgetown, Bucknell, and Lafayette could still make a run for the conference title.

Pioneer

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, Butler, Dayton, St. Thomas

This will be a one-bid league, but the battle for the auto bid will be highly competitive. The league has impressive out-of-conference wins, including Drake's upset over Eastern Washington. Drake, Dayton, and St. Thomas remain undefeated in conference play after Week 7. The Bulldogs had a massive win over Butler, who entered this weekend undefeated with a win over Murray State. Dayton escaped with a 16-14 win over Davidson, positioning the Flyers to make the first postseason appearance since 2015.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: Mercer

Mercer is on the verge of clinching its spot in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. The Bears earned their sixth win, dominating Princeton in a tricky out-of-conference matchup. They start a dangerous three-game stretch this weekend, headlined by Samford, ETSU, and Western Carolina. If the Bears can finish this stretch undefeated, they could be in position to secure one of the Top 4 seeds in the field.

Work To Do: ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina, Samford

Behind Mercer, the SoCon picture is starting to become clearer after Week 7. Chattanooga solidified its place as a real contender with a 41-7 win over Furman. Western Carolina has won three of its last four games, moving to 2-0 in conference play with a win over The Citadel. ETSU had a huge comeback win over Samford, which has the Bulldogs on the fringe of the playoff picture. If Samford fails to upset Mercer this weekend, the Bulldogs could be eliminated from postseason contention.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Incarnate Word, Lamar, Stephen F. Austin, Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese

Incarnate Word and Stephen F. Austin had massive statement wins in Week 7. The Cardinals dominated Nicholls and look like the best team in the conference. The Lumberjacks added a ranked win over Lamar to their resume, setting themselves up to compete for the auto bid. Southeastern Louisiana joins the conversation after a 37-7 victory over Houston Christian. The Lions are 2-0 in conference play and are finding their rhythm at the perfect time. McNeese had a much-needed bye week ahead of a must-win game against Incarnate Word this weekend.

UAC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, Southern Utah

Central Arkansas looked shaky against West Georgia, while Abilene Christian suffered a stunning upset loss to North Alabama. Both teams remain in contention but will need to show improvement if either wants to make a deep run in the bracket. Tarleton State continued to add to its resume with a dominant win over Utah Tech. Southern Utah's upset over Eastern Kentucky most likely eliminated the Colonels, while the Thunderbirds will need to win out to stay in playoff contention.

Note: North Carolina Central and Jackson State have the potential to build solid resumes for an at-large bid. If these teams win their conferences, they will meet in the Celebration Bowl and will not be eligible for the FCS Playoffs. If either team slips up in conference play, both will most likely be in contention for an at-large bid. The Eagles have three solid out-of-conference wins and made the playoffs last season.