FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 23 (Week 9)

Timothy Rosario | Oct 23, 2024

UC Davis Athletics

After each week, we will go conference by conference and look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2024 FCS playoffs with 10 automatic bids (conference winners) and 14 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 9. 

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State

The Bobcats have continued to roll, dominating Portland State in a 44-14 blowout victory. Montana State moved to 8-0 and is the only FCS program to reach eight wins this season. The Bobcats secured their spot as a "Lock" last week and aim to earn the No. 1 seed over the final few weeks.

Should Be In: UC Davis

After a 10-point victory over Eastern Washington, the Aggies move into the "Should Be In" tier. UC Davis will need to win one more game to secure its spot as a "Lock" for the postseason. The Aggies remain undefeated against FCS competition but have three difficult matchups against Sacramento State, Montana State, and Montana to end the season.

Work To Do: Idaho, Montana, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State

Weber State and Eastern Washington were eliminated with losses this past weekend. Idaho remains in this tier after a win over Cal Poly, but the Vandals need 1-2 more wins to secure their spot in the next tier. Montana had a much-needed bye week, but the chaos of Week 8 opened the door for the Grizzlies to move back into the Top 8 seed conversation. Northern Arizona and Sacramento State had narrow victories in Week 8, which kept their playoff hopes alive. Both teams will likely need to win their remaining games unless chaos ensues with other bubble teams.

Big South-OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: SEMO

Another impressive performance from SEMO, defeating Charleston Southern to remain undefeated against the FCS. The Redhawks jumped to No. 6 in the Stats Perform Top 25 and have a chance to secure a Top 4 seed by winning the remainder of their games.

Work To Do: UT Martin, Tennessee State

Both Tennessee State and UT Martin continue to find ways to win, keeping their postseason hopes alive. The Tigers improve to 6-2 after a road win over Howard, winning four consecutive games since their upset loss to Tennessee Tech. The Skyhawks are 3-2 against the FCS, but an FBS win over Kennesaw State keeps them in contention. These teams will meet in Week 10, which will eliminate the loser from contention for the playoffs.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Villanova, Rhode Island, Richmond, New Hampshire, William & Mary, Stony Brook, Maine, Monmouth

The chaos of the CAA race continued in Week 8, headlined by Maine's upset victory over Villanova. Following their upset victory, the Black Bears thrust themselves into the playoff picture, while the Wildcats are left with question marks. Richmond had a statement victory over Delaware, while Rhode Island earned a massive win over New Hampshire this weekend. Stony Brook defeated Towson, knocking the Tigers out of the playoff picture. William & Mary and Monmouth defeated overmatched opponents, keeping both in the CAA race.

We could have more clarity on the conference race this weekend, headlined by an intriguing matchup between Rhode Island and Maine. Villanova will look to rebound against New Hampshire, while William & Mary travels to Stony Brook. Monmouth also needs a win over Towson to remain in the playoff picture.

MVFC

Locks: North Dakota State

North Dakota State becomes the second "Lock" of the season after a massive win over South Dakota State. The Bison appear to be the favorite for the No. 1 overall seed and need to keep winning to maintain their lead.

Should Be In: South Dakota State, South Dakota

South Dakota State lost the Dakota Marker to North Dakota State but remains one of the best teams in the nation. The Week 9 matchup between the Jackrabbits and South Dakota will give both teams an opportunity to move into "Lock" status. The Coyotes remain undefeated against FCS competition but lack a signature win on their resume.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Illinois State

The rest of the MVFC has failed to meet preseason expectations, which has raised questions about how many teams will receive at-large bids. North Dakota and Illinois State are the only teams that look like legitimate playoff contenders. The Hawks defeated UNI in convincing fashion this weekend, while the Redbirds avoided an upset against Murray State. North Dakota could move into the "Should Be In" tier with wins over Youngstown State and Indiana State over the next two weeks. The Redbirds will likely need to win three of their final four games to secure their spot in the postseason.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Central Connecticut State, Robert Morris, Wagner

Duquesne appears to be the most complete team in the conference, with wins over Youngstown State and Long Island. Robert Morris improved to 2-0 in conference play with a win over Long Island this weekend, while Central Connecticut State remains undefeated in conference play but lost to Dartmouth in Week 8. Wagner will be an intriguing team to watch in this race, sitting at 2-1 in conference play after a win over Saint Francis.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Georgetown, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Bucknell, Colgate

The Patriot League will be a one-bid league this season, but there is very little clarity on this conference race right now. Georgetown suffered a loss to Colgate this weekend, failing to build on the momentum of last weekend's win over Lafayette. Holy Cross and Bucknell are the only remaining undefeated teams in conference play but face tough matchups in Week 9.

Pioneer

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Drake, Davidson, Dayton

Three undefeated teams remain in the Pioneer with Drake leading the way at 4-0 in conference play. Dayton and St. Thomas sit at 3-0 in conference play, while Davidson has emerged as a possible contender after a 70-48 win over Stetson. The Tommies have an important matchup against San Diego in Week 9, but all eyes are looking ahead to Nov. 9 when Drake travels to St. Thomas. The Tommies are not eligible for the postseason, but may be one of the biggest deciding factors in the race for the auto-bid.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Mercer, ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina, Samford

Mercer drops to the "Work To Do" tier after an upset loss against Samford. The Bears are 6-1 against the FCS but must navigate a difficult two-game stretch to secure their spot as a "Lock" for the postseason. Western Carolina, ETSU, and Chattanooga all have an opportunity to secure the auto-bid over the final five weeks of the season. The Catamounts are undefeated in conference play, while four other teams only have one conference loss.

Over the next few weeks, the SoCon will have multiple games with massive implications that will impact the playoff race. None of these teams have a signature out-of-conference win, which makes winning the conference even more important. In Week 9, Mercer will host Western Carolina in one of the biggest matchups of the weekend. The other contenders will have to avoid upset losses against teams near the bottom of the conference.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Incarnate Word, Lamar, Stephen F. Austin, Southeastern Louisiana

Incarnate Word and Southeastern Louisiana continue to find ways to win, remaining undefeated in conference play. Southeastern Louisiana's win over Stephen F. Austin may have hurt the conference's chances of getting multiple bids this season. The Lions must win the conference and secure the auto bid after a 1-4 record in out-of-conference games. Stephen F. Austin is the second-best candidate for an at-large team but will need a win over UIW to feel good about their playoff chances. Incarnate Word remains in the best spot with a 5-2 overall record and a solid out-of-conference win over Northern Arizona. Lamar sits at 4-3 but will need to win their remaining five games to secure a spot in the field.

UAC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Tarleton State, Southern Utah, North Alabama

Abilene Christian rebounded from an upset loss in Week 7 with an important win over Eastern Kentucky. The Wildcats are tied for second place in the conference and remain strong candidates to earn an at-large bid. Tarleton State remains undefeated against the FCS and can secure a Top 8 seed by winning the conference.

Southern Utah and Central Arkansas only have one conference loss, but the Bears are the stronger candidate for an at-large bid. The Bears are 5-2 with a win over Lamar, which was a Top 25 opponent at the time. The Thunderbirds will have to win out to earn a bid to the playoffs, including games against Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian. North Alabama remains in the playoff picture despite a 3-5 overall record. The Lions are 3-1 in conference play and have won three consecutive games, including an upset over Abilene Christian. It all starts this weekend as the Lions travel to face Central Arkansas.

Note: North Carolina Central and Jackson State have the potential to build solid resumes for an at-large bid. If these teams win their conferences, they will meet in the Celebration Bowl and will not be eligible for the FCS Playoffs. If either team slips up in conference play, both will most likely be in contention for an at-large bid. The Eagles have three solid out-of-conference wins and made the playoffs last season.

More FCS Football News

Behind The Numbers: Week 8 FCS Football Review
FCS Football Recap: Week 8 Takeaways
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 9 Ballot
FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 15 (Week 8)

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