FCS National Championship Preview & Prediction: Montana State vs. North Dakota State

Zachary McKinnell | Jan 4, 2025

Montana State RB Adam Jones / Bobcat Creative Services

No. 1 Montana State will face No. 2 North Dakota State in the 2025 Division I FCS National Championship game. Kickoff is scheduled for Jan. 6 at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN.

It would be Montana State's first FCS national championship since 1984 when the Bobcats defeated Louisiana Tech in Charleston, South Carolina. North Dakota State is seeking its tenth FCS national championship, but the Bison have not won it all since 2021 when they defeated the Bobcats.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 175-46
2022-23 Record: 207-75

North Dakota State (13-2) @ Montana State (15-0)

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: Montana State (-3.5)
Series History: Montana State leads 21-17

Key Players: Montana State

Tommy Mellott (QB): 190-for-276 (68.8%), 2,564 Passing Yards, 29 Passing TDs, 2 INTs, 915 Rushing Yards, 14 Rushing TDs

Scottre Humphrey (RB): 188 Carries, 1,360 Rushing Yards, 7.2 YPC, 15 Rushing TDs

Adam Jones (RB): 173 Carries, 1,134 Rushing Yards, 6.6 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Brody Grebe (DL): 35 Total Tackles, 10 TFLs, 8.5 Sacks, 5 PBUs, 8 QBHs, 1 FF, 2 FRs

Kenneth Eiden IV (DL): 26 Total Tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 8 Sacks, 5 QBHs, 1 FR

Key Players: North Dakota State

Cam Miller (QB): 239-for-329 (72.6%), 3,052 Passing Yards, 31 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 510 Rushing Yards, 10 Rushing TDs

CharMar Brown (RB): 227 Carries, 1,104 Rushing Yards, 4.9 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Bryce Lance (WR): 66 Receptions, 964 Receiving Yards, 14.6 YPC, 16 Receiving TDs

Logan Kopp (LB): 69 Total Tackles, 8 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 3 INTs, 6 PBUs, 1 FF, 1 FR

Eli Mostaert (DL): 56 Total Tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 Sacks, 4 QBHs

Montana State has a chance to make history, becoming only the third team in college football history to finish 16-0, joining 2019 North Dakota State and 1894 Yale. The Bobcats have been the most dominant team in the nation all season, winning by an average of 24 points per game.

It starts with the most electric player at the FCS level, quarterback Tommy Mellott. Mellott is completing over 68% of his passes for 2,564 yards, 29 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. He leads the nation in passing efficiency while being dangerous outside the pocket with his legs. Averaging over 8.4 yards per carry, Mellott has recorded over 900 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns for the Bobcats. His playmaking ability will test North Dakota State's linebackers and safeties in space.

The Bobcats are averaging 301 rushing yards per game this season, ranking No. 2 nationally. The dynamic duo of Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for over 1,500 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. Montana State's offensive line is the catalyst for its dominance on the ground, headlined by All-American Marcus Wehr.

The Bison defense has done an excellent job of generating negative plays, which will be a huge key in this game. North Dakota State led all playoff teams with a tackle-for-loss rate of over 10%, led by Eli Mostaert (11.5 TFLs) and Kody Huisman (7.5 TFLs). The interior of the Bison defensive line has continued to be dominant, which will be something to watch against an impressive Montana State offensive line.

North Dakota State's linebackers will be in the spotlight against this dynamic Montana State offense. Logan Kopp leads the unit with 69 total tackles, eight tackles for loss, three sacks, and three interceptions. The Bison rank No. 116 nationally in tackling this season, which will be a point of emphasis on Monday night.

While Mellott will challenge the Bison defense, North Dakota State has its own dynamic weapon in quarterback Cam Miller. Miller has completed 72.6% of his passes for 3,052 yards, 31 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. In multiple games this season, Miller has shown an elite ability to make a play when the Bison need it most, leading game-winning drives in key moments. His connection with wide receiver Bryce Lance is dangerous, leading to a single-season record 16 receiving touchdowns.

Montana State's secondary will be tested in this game, but the Bobcats have been outstanding against the pass, holding opponents to 190.2 passing yards per game. A key aspect of this Montana State defense is the pass rush, led by Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV. The duo has combined for 19.5 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks. North Dakota State's offensive line allows pressure on less than 20% of all dropbacks, anchored by All-Americans Grey Zabel and Mason Miller. Will the Bobcats be able to make Miller uncomfortable in the pocket on Monday night? It will be one of the biggest keys of the game.

North Dakota State has ended Montana State's postseason journey four times since 2018, including a dominant win over the Bobcats in the FCS National Championship game three seasons ago. Will the Bobcats finally find a way past the Bison in the postseason?

I expect an extremely competitive game on Monday night at Toyota Stadium. This North Dakota State team has silenced the doubters all season long, but there is a special feeling around this Montana State squad. From Week 0 until now, the Bobcats have been the nation's most dominant and consistent team. Mellott leads Montana State on a game-winning drive late, securing the program's first national championship since 1984.

Prediction: Montana State (38-31)

More FCS Football News

Behind The Numbers: FCS National Championship Preview
FCS National Championship: Offensive Spotlight
FCS National Championship: Defensive Spotlight
History Of The FCS National Championship Game
2024 FCS Playoffs: Official Bracket, Schedule, Scores

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