Week 11 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | Nov 9, 2024

Ryan Brennecke (Montana Athletics)

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 11 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 124-31
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 4 UC Davis at No. 7 Montana

Kickoff: 9:15 p.m. CT (ESPN2)

UC Davis is one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning eight consecutive games and remaining undefeated against the FCS. The Aggies have only defeated Montana once in school history (2018), which led to UC Davis' lone Big Sky championship. Montana has built momentum with three consecutive wins after an upset loss to Weber State on Oct. 5.

Quarterback Miles Hastings has been the catalyst for UC Davis' impressive start, recording 2,800 passing yards and 23 passing touchdowns. The Aggies lead the Big Sky in passing offense and rank second in total offense, averaging over 469 yards per game. Running back Lan Larison lead the Aggies in rushing and receiving, posting 964 rushing yards and 529 receiving yards.

The rushing attack has been the key for the Grizzlies, led by Eli Gillman, with 766 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Nick Ostmo has contributed over 670 rushing yards and three touchdowns, giving Montana an explosive 1-2 punch in the backfield. UC Davis ranks No. 2 in rushing defense, holding opponents to 122.9 yards per game. The Aggies are led by linebacker David Meyer, who has posted 78 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and three interceptions.

Montana remains committed to a two-quarterback system, but it is clear that the offense is more efficient with Logan Fife under center. Fife leads the Grizzlies with 1,332 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and only one interception. If the Grizzlies would commit to Fife as the full-time starter, Montana could emerge as a true championship contender.

UC Davis has been overlooked all season as much of the media's attention has been placed on the Top 4 teams in the subdivision. Montana is 16-2 under the lights at Washington-Grizzly Stadium, so this may be the toughest test of the season for the Aggies. The Montana defense will be the difference this weekend, slowing down the explosive UC Davis offense. The Grizzlies will lean on their rushing attack and control the pace of the game, giving Montana a much-needed ranked win ahead of another postseason run.

Prediction: Montana (24-21)

No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 21 North Dakota

Kickoff: 1 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

This is a must-win game for North Dakota after back-to-back upset losses to Indiana State and Youngstown State. Luckily for the Hawks, South Dakota State must navigate the challenges of the Alerus Center, where North Dakota has won 30 of its past 33 games.

North Dakota will rely on its rushing attack, which has averaged over 205 rushing yards per game. Isaiah Smith and Gaven Ziebarth have combined for over 1,000 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. South Dakota State leads the MVFC in rushing defense, holding opponents to 99.3 rushing yards per game.

South Dakota State ranks No. 1 in the MVFC in rushing offense, averaging over 243 yards per game. It will be a massive challenge for the Hawks, who have allowed over 200 rushing yards in four of their past five games. Amar Johnson leads the Jackrabbits with 621 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

There will be plenty of energy surrounding this game as a loss this weekend will end North Dakota's playoff hopes, but the Jackrabbits are more talented at almost every position. I expect another dominant rushing performance from Johnson while South Dakota State's defense suffocates North Dakota's offense.

Prediction: South Dakota State (37-10)

No. 11 Rhode Island at Delaware

Kickoff: Noon CT (FloSports)

Rhode Island controls its destiny in the CAA race as the Rams remain undefeated against FCS competition. The Rams lack a true quality win this season but have a chance to make a statement against Delaware, who sits at 7-1 as the Blue Hens prepare to jump to the FBS next season.

After some close wins to start the season, the Rams have won their past four games by 10 points or more. The most significant difference has been the rushing defense, which has held the past three opponents under 70 yards rushing. A.J. Pena leads the defense with 14.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks, while Carson Primrose has made an impact from the defensive tackle position.

Delaware ranks No. 2 in the CAA in scoring offense, but the rotation at quarterback has limited the offense in recent weeks. Nick Minicucci started against UAlbany, throwing for 173 yards and three passing touchdowns. It remains to be seen if Minicucci will get the start this weekend, but the offense will continue to run through running back Marcus Yarns. Yarns leads the Blue Hens with 436 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns.

Rhode Island's offense has been inconsistent this season, but the rushing attack has been the bright spot behind Malik Grant. Grant leads the Rams with 789 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, surpassing 100 yards in four of the past six games. Quarterback Devin Farrell is also dangerous with his legs, rushing for 300 yards and five touchdowns.

This game has the potential to be one of the most competitive of the Week 11 slate. I would not be surprised if Delaware finds a way to win at home, but Rhode Island has started to find its rhythm over the past four weeks. The Rams will lean on Grant and make the Blue Hens one-dimensional, which will be enough to escape with a huge road victory.

Prediction: Rhode Island (27-24)

No. 22 Western Carolina at ETSU

Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ESPN+)

This is a must-win game for both teams to keep their FCS Playoff hopes alive. Western Carolina has a chance to remain in the race for the SoCon championship and could secure a share of the title by winning their final three games. ETSU fell to 5-4 overall and 3-2 in the SoCon after a loss to Mercer last weekend.

Western Carolina will be without quarterback Cole Gonzales due to injury, but freshman Taron Dickens looks like an emerging star at the FCS level. In his first start, he recorded over 430 passing yards and five touchdowns against an experienced Chattanooga secondary. He is surrounded by an elite wide receiver core, in which eight players have recorded 200 or more receiving yards this season. De'Andre Tamarez leads the Catamounts with 483 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Due to inconsistent quarterback play, ETSU will depend on its rushing attack in this matchup. The Buccaneers lead the SoCon in rushing offense, averaging 195.7 yards per game. Bryson Irby leads the offense with 593 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Catamounts have allowed over 185 rushing yards per game but have held two of their past three opponents to less than 60 yards rushing.

The biggest question in this game will be ETSU's quarterback situation after Gino English replaced Jaylen King against Mercer. King brings elite athleticism to the position but lacks the accuracy and efficiency that English showed late in the game. English completed 14-of-19 attempts for 267 passing yards and two touchdowns.

ETSU has lost three FCS games by seven or fewer points this season due to turnovers, missed opportunities, and controversial penalties. Will the Buccaneers be able to win their first game over a ranked opponent? I do not trust ETSU's passing attack right now, while Dickens looks like a superstar in Kerwin Bell's offense. Western Carolina's weapons will be too much for the ETSU secondary as the Catamounts stay alive in the race for the FCS Playoffs.

Prediction: Western Carolina (34-31)

Other Week 11 FCS Predictions:

No. 2 Montana State 38, Sacramento State 20
No. 5 South Dakota 34, Indiana State 17
No. 8 Incarnate Word 41, Lamar 20
No. 9 Idaho 31, Portland State 17
No. 16 Central Arkansas 24, Eastern Kentucky 21
No. 17 Stony Brook 34, UAlbany 14
No. 19 UT Martin 42, Charleston Southern 20
No. 24 Harvard 24, Columbia 21
No. 25 Duquesne 27, Robert Morris 21

More FCS Football News

FCS Football Playoff Picture: Nov. 8 (Week 11)
Week 11 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
FCS Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 11 Ballot
FCS Playoff Committee Reveals Top 10 Ranking

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