Week 12 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | Nov 15, 2024

Montana State running back Adam Jones / Kelly Gorham (Montana State Athletics)

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 12 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 133-35
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 2 Montana State at No. 4 UC Davis

Kickoff: 7 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

The winner of this game will earn at least a share of the Big Sky championship and have an excellent shot to secure a Top 2 seed in the postseason. It would be UC Davis' first conference title since 2018, while this would be Montana State's second conference title in the past three seasons. The Bobcats have won seven consecutive games over the Aggies.

This game will hinge on UC Davis' ability to stop Montana State's dominant rushing attack. The Bobcats lead the nation in rushing offense, averaging 332.4 yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry. Scottre Humphrey leads the attack with 1,191 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, while Adam Jones is having a breakout season with 697 rushing yards.

UC Davis ranks No. 2 in the Big Sky in rushing defense, holding opponents to 118.3 yards per game. The Aggies have held two of their past three opponents under 100 rushing yards. Linebacker David Meyer has been a star, recording 88 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, and three interceptions.

While Montana State will lean on the run, UC Davis leads the Big Sky with 317.3 passing yards per game. Miles Hastings is having the best season of his career, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. Montana State has held opposing offenses to 174 passing yards per game, ranking No. 16 nationally.

This game will also feature two of the most dynamic athletes at the FCS level. Montana State's Tommy Mellott is having an All-American season, recording 1,688 passing yards, 586 rushing yards, and 29 total touchdowns. UC Davis running back Lan Larison is one of the most dangerous weapons in the nation, leading the Aggies in rushing and receiving yards. His versatility allows UC Davis to be creative offensively, creating a challenge for Montana State's defense.

Each offense should be able to find success, but I believe that Montana State should win the battle at the line of scrimmage. Mellot is playing at an elite level right now, while the Bobcats are getting healthy at the perfect time. UC Davis is good enough to win this game, but I'm rolling with Montana State to secure a share of the Big Sky title and make its case for the No. 1 overall seed.

Prediction: Montana State (35-27)

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No. 14 Abilene Christian at No. 13 Tarleton State

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Abilene Christian will secure the UAC's auto-bid with a win over Tarleton State this weekend. It would be the program's first outright conference title at the FCS level. To keep its championship hopes alive, Tarleton State must defeat the Wildcats and win a season-ending matchup over Central Arkansas.

Running back Kayvon Britten is the catalyst behind Tarleton State's offense. Britten is averaging 149.5 yards per game and has recorded 15 rushing touchdowns this season. He presents a problem for Abilene Christian's defense, which has allowed 176.2 rushing yards per game.

The most significant question mark is the consistency of Tarleton State's offense. The Texans have struggled to generate a consistent passing attack, including three consecutive games under 200 passing yards. Wide receiver Darius Cooper is a matchup nightmare on the outside, but quarterback Victor Gabalis will need to have his best performance of the season.

Abilene Christian's passing attack receives plenty of attention as the Wildcats average over 320 yards per game. Quarterback Maverick McIvor is having a stellar season, while Blayne Taylor and Nehemiah Martinez I are a dynamic receiver duo.

The underrated aspect of this offense is the rushing attack, which features Sam Hicks and Isaiah Johnson. The duo has combined for over 1,400 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. The Texans have allowed over 160 rushing yards per game but have held three of their past four opponents under 105 rushing yards.

This is one of the most challenging games to predict this weekend due to the recent chaos in the UAC. While I still expect Britten to have an impressive performance, I will lean towards the more balanced offensive attack. The Wildcats will be motivated to lock up the UAC auto-bid, which propels them to a huge road win over the Texans.

Prediction: Abilene Christian (27-24)

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Missouri State at No. 1 North Dakota State

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Missouri State is building plenty of momentum ahead of its jump to the FBS level, winning eight consecutive games after an 0-2 start. The Bears have a chance to shake up the subdivision this weekend, but North Dakota State has dominated this series over the past 15 years. The Bison have won 12 consecutive games over Missouri State, including 13 of the past 15 matchups.

The Bears lead the MVFC in scoring offense, averaging 38.8 points per game this season. It all starts with quarterback Jacob Clark, who has thrown for 3,171 yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Six players have surpassed the 300-yard mark this season, led by Hunter Wood with 680 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

This game will be decided by Missouri State's ability to stop the dynamic North Dakota State offense. Quarterback Cam Miller is having an outstanding season, recording 2,011 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, six rushing touchdowns, and leads the nation in passing efficiency. The Bears have allowed opposing offenses to put up points, including 30+ points against UNI and Murray State.

The Bison defense ranks Top 3 in all major defensive statistics in the MVFC, which creates an interesting dynamic in this matchup. The secondary has held opposing offenses to 194.4 passing yards per game and has only allowed eight passing touchdowns.

I expect Missouri State to find some success offensively, but I do not trust the defense to stop North Dakota State's offense. Miller appears to be primed for another outstanding performance, while the Bison defense adjusts in the second half to pull away with another quality win for their playoff resume.

Prediction: North Dakota State (49-28)

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No. 5 South Dakota at North Dakota

Kickoff: Noon CT (ESPN+)

North Dakota's postseason chances are fading quickly, but an upset win over No. 5 South Dakota could dramatically shift the odds. The Hawks have lost four of their past five games, including three consecutive losses. Conversely, South Dakota looked impressive in a 49-0 win over Indiana State after an overtime loss to South Dakota State.

South Dakota enters this game with the No. 2 rushing offense in the MVFC, averaging over 225 yards per game. The Coyotes have a dynamic 1-2 punch with Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis. The duo has combined for over 1,500 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. The Hawks have struggled to stop the run, allowing over 173 yards per game and have allowed 220 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games.

North Dakota's offense has struggled to generate consistent offense against elite opponents, which could be the story in this game. South Dakota leads the MVFC in total and scoring defense, holding opponents to 11.1 points and 276 yards per game. Defensive end Mi'Quise Grace is an emerging star, leading the Coyotes with 13 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks.

This game has all the makings of another blowout win for South Dakota, which enters this weekend with significant advantages on both sides of the ball. Unless the Alerus Center delivers some unexpected magic, I expect South Dakota to win this game comfortably behind another stellar rushing performance.

Prediction: South Dakota (38-10)

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No. 23 Jackson State at Alabama State

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Jackson State has an opportunity to clinch the SWAC East with a victory over Alabama State this weekend. The Tigers have won six consecutive games since an upset loss to Grambling State, including five wins by 14 points or more. Alabama State will aim to keep their SWAC Championship hopes alive but must rebound from a shocking loss to Grambling State in Week 11.

Everything starts with Jackson State's rushing attack, which has recorded 245 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games. Irv Mulligan leads the Tigers with 896 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Alabama State ranks No. 2 in the SWAC in rushing defense, allowing 110.1 yards per game. Linebackers Rico Dozier and DeMarkus Cunningham have combined for 144 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks.

After suffering multiple injuries at quarterback, the Hornets have settled in with Kareem Keye, who started the season at wide receiver. Keye has recorded 949 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, and one interception in six games. This will be Keye's toughest test as he faces a Jackson State defense that ranks No. 2 in the SWAC in total defense, holding opponents to only 285.7 yards per game.

Alabama State's defense has been excellent this season, but the concern in this matchup is the ability to put points on the board. Jackson State has been the most complete team in HBCU football this season, which will cause issues for an Alabama State offense lacking balance. I expect another impressive performance for Mulligan while the Jackson State defense makes a statement in Montgomery.

Prediction: Jackson State (27-10)

Other Week 12 FCS Predictions:

No. 3 South Dakota State 38, Southern Illinois 17
No. 6 Incarnate Word 35, Stephen F. Austin 13
No. 8 Idaho 24, Weber State 16
No. 10 Montana 42, Portland State 34
No. 15 Rhode Island 31, UAlbany 21
No. 16 Stony Brook 24, New Hampshire 21
No. 18 UT Martin 27, Tennessee Tech 20
No. 20 Harvard 34, Penn 30
No. 21 ETSU 38, Furman 14
No. 22 Duquesne 28, Wagner 13
Southern Utah 27, No. 24 Central Arkansas 23

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