Behind The Numbers: Analyzing Resumes For Teams On The FCS Playoff Bubble

Timothy Rosario | Nov 20, 2024

Tennessee State quarterback Draylen Ellis (1) celebrates with wide receiver Karate Brenson (0) / Tennessee State Athletics

With Selection Sunday just a few days away, let's look deeper at the playoff resumes for each team on the bubble. We are projecting that almost nine at-large bids are locked up, leaving only five or six spots available for the following 21 teams.

Some notable teams that have most likely secured an at-large bid are Montana, South Dakota, Idaho, UC Davis, Tarleton State, Illinois State, Rhode Island, SEMO, and South Dakota State.

The teams listed below all have a chance to reach seven wins this weekend. Strength of schedule is from the Massey Ratings, which includes future games. Quality wins are subjective based on the quality of opponents each team has played.

Below are the resumes for every FCS football program on the bubble for the FCS playoffs entering Week 13.

Big Sky

Northern Arizona (7-4, 5-2 Big Sky)

Record vs FCS: 6-3
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Sacramento State, Weber State
SOS: No. 25
Massey Rating: No. 15

Big South-OVC

Tennessee State (8-3, 5-2 Big South-OVC)

Record vs FCS: 8-3
Division I Wins: 8
Notable Wins: Howard, Gardner-Webb
SOS: No. 85
Massey Rating: No. 52

Tennessee Tech (6-5, 5-2 Big South-OVC)

Record vs FCS: 6-3
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: UT Martin, Tennessee State, Samford
SOS: No. 51
Massey Rating: No. 42

UT Martin (7-4, 5-2 Big South-OVC)

Record vs FCS: 6-3
Division I Wins: 7 (FBS win vs Kennesaw State)
Notable Wins: Gardner-Webb, Tennessee State
SOS: No. 50
Massey Rating: No. 23

CAA

New Hampshire (7-4, 5-2 CAA)

Record vs FCS: 7-3
Division I Wins: 7
Notable Wins: Stony Brook, Monmouth
SOS: No. 30
Massey Rating: No. 22

Stony Brook (8-3, 5-2 CAA)

Record vs FCS: 8-2
Division I Wins: 8
Notable Wins: William & Mary, Towson
SOS: No. 56
Massey Rating: No. 29

Towson (6-5, 4-3 CAA)

Record vs FCS: 6-4
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: William & Mary, Monmouth
SOS: No. 38
Massey Rating: No. 35

William & Mary (7-4, 4-3 CAA)

Record vs FCS: 7-3
Division I Wins: 7
Notable Wins: Wofford, Campbell
SOS: No. 63
Massey Rating: No. 31

Villanova (8-3, 5-2 CAA)

Record vs FCS: 8-2
Division I Wins: 8
Notable Wins: New Hampshire, Stony Brook, Towson
SOS: No. 54
Massey Rating: No. 14

MEAC

North Carolina Central (7-3, 3-1 MEAC)

Record vs FCS: 6-2
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Campbell, Alabama State
SOS: No. 97
Massey Rating: No. 48

NEC

Duquesne (8-2, 5-0 NEC)

Record vs FCS: 7-0
Division I Wins: 7
Notable Wins: Youngstown State
SOS: No. 102
Massey Rating: No. 60

*Duquesne can secure the auto-bid in the NEC with a win over Central Connecticut State this weekend.*

SoCon

Chattanooga (6-5, 5-3 SoCon)

Record vs FCS: 6-3
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: ETSU, Wofford
SOS: No. 26
Massey Rating: No. 25

ETSU (6-5, 4-3 SoCon)

Record vs FCS: 5-4
Division I Wins: 5
Notable Wins: Western Carolina, Wofford
SOS: No. 42
Massey Rating: No. 28

Western Carolina (6-5, 5-2 SoCon)

Record vs FCS: 6-4
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Chattanooga, Wofford
SOS: No. 27
Massey Rating: No. 27

Southland

Lamar (6-5, 3-3 SLC)

Record vs FCS: 6-4
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Weber State
SOS: No. 77
Massey Rating: No. 62

McNeese (6-5, 3-3 SLC)

Record vs FCS: 6-4
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Southern, Stephen F. Austin, Weber State
SOS: No. 72
Massey Rating: No. 58

Stephen F. Austin (6-5, 4-3 SLC)

Record vs FCS: 5-4
Division I Wins: 5
Notable Wins: Lamar
SOS: No. 82
Massey Rating: No. 45

Southeastern Louisiana (6-5, 5-1 SLC)

Record vs FCS: 6-3
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Eastern Washington, Lamar, Stephen F. Austin
SOS: No. 32
Massey Rating: No. 32

UAC

Central Arkansas (6-5, 3-4 UAC)

Record vs FCS: 6-4
Division I Wins: 6
Notable Wins: Lamar
SOS: No. 58
Massey Rating: No. 36

Eastern Kentucky (7-4, 5-2 UAC)

Record vs FCS: 7-3
Division I Wins: 7
Notable Wins: Tarleton State, Central Arkansas
SOS: No. 44
Massey Rating: No. 26

Southern Utah (6-5, 5-2 UAC)

Record vs FCS: 5-4
Division I Wins: 6 (FBS win vs UTEP)
Notable Wins: Eastern Kentucky, Central Arkansas
SOS: No. 21
Massey Rating: No. 24