Behind The Numbers: FCS Football Midseason Review

Timothy Rosario | Oct 9, 2024

Villanova Athletics

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This week will be a special Behind The Numbers as we examine success rates by conference for the 2024 FCS football season. Throw out the records; how well have some top teams played over the first six games? It is important to note that the success rate is not adjusted for the strength of the schedule, which could impact the numbers.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We look behind the numbers from the first six weeks of the FCS football season.

Big Sky

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Montana State (52.94%)
2. Montana (50.39%)
3. Eastern Washington (49.25%)
4. Idaho State (47.95%)
T5. UC Davis (43.5%)
T5. Northern Arizona (43.5%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Montana State (68.61%)
2. Northern Arizona (66.43%)
3. Idaho (60.91%)
4. UC Davis (60.61%)
5. Sacramento State (60.2%)

Montana State has been the most dominant team in the Big Sky this season, but the Bobcats have not been tested. Montana and Eastern Washington have been brilliant offensively; however, both teams are struggling defensively. If either of these teams expects to reach their preseason goals, they must solve the defensive woes. Idaho's defensive success rate is extremely impressive due to the level of competition the Vandals have faced. It's safe to say the Vandals have had the best defense in the Big Sky over the first six weeks of the season.

Big South-OVC

Offensive Success Rate:

1. SEMO (43.94%)
2. Eastern Illinois (41.59%)
3. Charleston Southern (40.27%)
4. UT Martin (39.23%)
5. Tennessee Tech (38.23%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. UT Martin (63.64%)
2. SEMO (61.92%)
3. Tennessee State (61.68%)
4. Tennessee Tech (61.33%)
5. Gardner-Webb (58.9%)

SEMO and UT Martin appear to be separating themselves from the rest of the conference. Offensive success rate has been the problem for the Big South-OVC this season. Nearly every team in the conference is performing much better defensively. Another interesting note is Eastern Illinois' success rate on offense. Despite the improved offensive play, the Panthers have struggled defensively, leading to a 1-5 start.

CAA

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Villanova (48.97%)
2. Monmouth (48.22%)
3. Delaware (47.06%)
4. William & Mary (46.93%)
5. Richmond (45.76%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Villanova (64.09%)
2. Delaware (63.14%)
3. Richmond (61.85%)
4. New Hampshire (60.35%)
5. Maine (58.3%)

Villanova has received plenty of criticism for not being impressive on the scoreboard, but the Wildcats have dominated down-to-down. The data suggests that the explosive will come eventually, leading to more dominant wins. Interestingly, Richmond is the only other team in the top five in offensive and defensive success rates.

Ivy League

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Columbia (46.04%)
2. Penn (44.44%)
3. Yale (43.37%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Dartmouth (66.92%)
2. Harvard (64.26%)
3. Princeton (58.21%)

We have fewer data points for the Ivy League, but after the first three weeks of games, this conference looks as chaotic as ever. Dartmouth is the only remaining undefeated team, led by a dominant defense that has held opponents to less than 260 yards per game.

MEAC

Offensive Success Rate:

1. North Carolina Central (43.43%)
2. South Carolina State (42.19%)
3. Howard (40.32%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. North Carolina Central (61.84%)
2. South Carolina State (60.34%)
3. Norfolk State (59.94%)

The upcoming Oct. 31 matchup between North Carolina Central and South Carolina State appears to be the MEAC championship game. It'll be a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in HBCU football. Walker Harris has recorded over 1,000 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, while Eric Phoenix leads the conference with 1,311 passing yards.

MVFC

Offensive Success Rate:

1. North Dakota State (53.83%)
2. South Dakota (53.70%)
3. South Dakota State (47.57%)
4. Youngstown State (46.89%)
5. Missouri State (45.70%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. South Dakota (66.67%)
2. South Dakota State (62.33%)
3. North Dakota State (58.66%)
4. Illinois State (58.10%)
5. Missouri State (57.37%)

South Dakota State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the conference. The Bison and Coyotes have the nation's top two offensive success rates. The Jackrabbits have taken a step back from last season, but the defense remains one of the most elite units in the FCS. Interestingly, Missouri State ranks in the top five in offensive and defensive success rates, but the Bears are not eligible for the postseason due to their FBS transition.

Patriot League

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Lafayette (46.91%)
2. Holy Cross (43.45%)
3. Georgetown (42.92%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Georgetown (61.9%)
2. Lehigh (60.18%)
3. Lafayette (58.56%)

Lafayette remains the favorite to win the conference, but Georgetown has emerged as an intriguing contender with a top-three success rate on both sides of the ball. The Hoyas are 3-2 but upset Columbia last weekend, who opened the season with a ranked win over Lafayette.

SoCon

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Mercer (47.78%)
2. Samford (42.69%)
3. Western Carolina (42.49%)
4. ETSU (41.5%)
5. Chattanooga (37.75%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Mercer (77.04%)
2. Furman (64.94%)
3. Samford (64.37%)
4. ETSU (60.84%)
5. Western Carolina (59.95%)

Mercer has been dominant in the first half of the season compared to the rest of the conference. The Bears led the nation in defensive success rate and have held opponents to less than 225 yards per game. Samford, Western Carolina, and ETSU all rank in the top five in the SoCon for success rate. Chattanooga was the preseason favorite, but two FBS games skewed their overall numbers.

Southland

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Stephen F. Austin (49.4%)
2. Incarnate Word (46.22%)
3. McNeese (40.91%)
4. Nicholls (39.62%)
5. Houston Christian (38.69%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Stephen F. Austin (69.66%)
2. Texas A&M-Commerce (62.20%)
3. Nicholls (60.98%)
4. McNeese (55.99%)
5. Incarnate Word (55.89%)

According to the statistics, Stephen F. Austin has been the best team in the Southland this season. The Lumberjacks have already dropped a conference game against McNeese but have been dominant in their past two games. Incarnate Word is still one of the favorites to win the conference and has navigated an extremely difficult schedule. After two FBS games and a road trip to Sacramento State, Nicholls has outscored its past two opponents 117-7.

SWAC

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Jackson State (42.39%)
2. Alcorn State (41.77%)
3. Florida A&M (39.23%)
4. Alabama State (37.82%)
5. Texas Southern (37.67%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Alabama State (64.49%)
2. Jackson State (63.97%)
3. Texas Southern (61.21%)
4. Prairie View A&M (60.37%)
5. Southern (60.16%)

Jackson State has been the most balanced team in the SWAC this season, ranking top two in offensive and defensive success rates. Alcorn State has had impressive offensive performances in back-to-back weeks but has yet to face a true contender in the conference. Florida A&M's back-to-back FBS games have hurt the Rattlers in these rankings, but they were impressive last weekend in a win over Alabama State.

UAC

Offensive Success Rate:

1. Central Arkansas (51.09%)
2. Tarleton State (47.34%)
3. Abilene Christian (45.37%)
4. Eastern Kentucky (42.36%)
5. Southern Utah (41.21%)

Defensive Success Rate:

1. Central Arkansas (64.38%)
2. Eastern Kentucky (62.64%)
3. Tarleton State (61.63%)
4. Abilene Christian (59.63%)
5. West Georgia (57.68%)

Despite a loss this past weekend, Central Arkansas has been the most consistent, dominant team in the UAC. Even in their loss, the Bears had a higher success rate than the Wildcats. Tarleton State and Abilene Christian appear to be the other contenders in this conference, while Eastern Kentucky could be a dark horse. The Colonels are undefeated against FCS competition but have yet to face a top-tier opponent.