Behind The Numbers: Week 2 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Sep 11, 2024

Campbell wide receiver Sincere Brown / Campbell Athletics

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 2 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 2?

Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Campbell 24, Western Carolina 16

Success Rate: Campbell (38%), Western Carolina (35%)

The analytics indicate that this game was a defensive battle, but the difference was the turnover battle. Western Carolina turned the ball over five times compared to Campbell's two turnovers. Quarterback Chad Mascoe outplayed All-American Cole Gonzales, passing for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Gonzales finished the game with four interceptions and only averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. The Camels also generated more explosive plays, limiting a talented Western Carolina offense to only two explosive plays.

Wofford 26, Richmond 19

Success Rate: Wofford (37%), Richmond (37%)

Wofford and Richmond finished with the exact same success rate. Neither team was able to establish the run due to the dominant defensive performances. Both teams averaged less than 4.6 yards per carry, but the difference was made through the air. Richmond's quarterbacks combined to throw four interceptions and less than 4.0 yards per attempt. Amari Odom was efficient for the Wofford, throwing two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Idaho 17, Wyoming 13

Success Rate: Idaho (38%), Wyoming (29%)

Idaho may have the best defense in FCS football after the first two weeks of the season. The Vandals have limited opponents to a 33% success rate despite opening the season with two FBS opponents. Wyoming was held to only 3.9 yards per play this weekend, led by Idaho's dominant defensive line play. The Vandals recorded six tackles for loss and four sacks, headlined by Keyshawn James-Newby with three sacks. The secondary held the Cowboys to only 42% completion percentage and less than 5.0 yards per attempt.

Georgia State 24, Chattanooga 21

Success Rate: Georgia State (43%), Chattanooga (37%)

Chattanooga almost secured the fifth FBS upset of the 2024 season but fell short after Georgia State scored a game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Mocs lost the success rate battle but averaged more yards per play (6.0-5.4). Wide receiver Sam Phillips had a dominant performance, recording eight receptions for 195 receiving yards and one touchdown. Three turnovers changed the course of this game, including two interceptions from Chase Artopoeus. This game was a much-needed confidence boost for the Mocs ahead of a key Week 3 matchup against Mercer.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Southern Utah running back Targhee Lambson / Southern Utah Athletics

North Dakota 27, Montana 24

Success Rate: North Dakota (41%), Montana (43%)

This was one of the strangest games of the weekend. Montana jumped out to a 24-7 lead after North Dakota struggled to find offensive consistency. The second half was a completely different story as the Hawks dominated the time of possession, putting together three drives of 10 plays or more. Montana contributed to North Dakota's efficiency, allowing four first downs on penalties. Montana's offense never found its rhythm, only running 17 plays in the second half. The Grizzlies averaged 7.8 yards per carry, but Montana only rushed the ball three times in the second half.

SEMO 45, UT Martin 42

Success Rate: SEMO (35%), UT Martin (40%)

Despite the high score of this double overtime battle, the success rate shows that this was actually a defensive game. Neither team could establish the rushing attack, although Patrick Smith had a breakout game for the Skyhawks with 148 rushing yards. Smith generated plenty of yards but lacked any explosive plays. SEMO completely abandoned the run game, only giving their running back four total carries. The quarterbacks shined in this game as Kinkead Dent passed for 277 yards and four touchdowns, and Paxton DeLaurent set a school record with six passing touchdowns. UT Martin dominated this game according to yards per play (6.2-4.9), but turnovers were the equalizer. Bryce Norman's forced fumble prevented UT Martin from taking a three-score lead, which led to 14 unanswered points for the Redhawks.

Southern Utah 27, UTEP 24

Success Rate: Southern Utah (38%), UTEP (41%)

Southern Utah lost the success rate battle but still had a postgame win expectancy of 63%. Quarterback Jackson Berry was the key to this due to his ability to extend drives with his legs. Running back Targhee Lambson's explosiveness was a massive factor in this game. Lambson recorded 183 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Southern Utah's defense also had an outstanding performance with ten tackles for loss while limiting UTEP to 5-of-16 on third downs.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 2?

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

South Dakota State 45, Incarnate Word 24

Success Rate: South Dakota State (60%), Incarnate Word (45%)

After a slow start, South Dakota State put together one of the most dominant offensive performances of the weekend. The Jackrabbits finished the game 10-of-13 on third downs and a success rate of 60%. Both teams averaged over 7.0 yards per play, but South Dakota State's ability to extend drives was the difference. Incarnate Word's passing attack was impressive behind Zach Calzada's 351 passing yards and three touchdowns. He completed almost 80% of his passes and averaged over 9.0 yards per attempt. Incarnate Word only converted on 6-of-14 third and fourth downs, which allowed the Jacks to pull away in the second half. The Cardinals also allowed six South Dakota State first downs due to penalties, which helped the Jacks extend multiple crucial drives.

Tarleton State 35, Houston Christian 18

Success Rate: Tarleton State (63%), Houston Christian (33%)

This game was not as competitive as the final score indicates. Tarleton State dominated Houston Christian on a down-to-down basis, allowing only one drive over 50 yards. In his first start, quarterback Daniel Greek completed 15-of-22 attempts for 179 passing yards and three touchdowns. The real heroes for the Texans were Kayvon Britten and Derrel Kelley III, who combined for 260 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Tarleton State had the second-best success rate of any FCS program in Week 2, showing the dominance in a big out-of-conference win.

Villanova 28, Colgate 3

Success Rate: Villanova (58%), Colgate (33%)

Villanova's defense dominated this game, holding Colgate to 3.9 yards per play. The Wildcats also found plenty of success through the air, averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Wide receiver Devin Smith led the Wildcats with 116 receiving yards and only six receptions. Villanova was less explosive on the ground this weekend, averaging 4.1 yards per carry. If the Wildcats can excel in both phases of the game, Villanova could be one of the most dangerous teams in the nation.

Prairie View A&M 37, Northwestern State 31

Success Rate: Prairie View A&M (40%), Northwestern State (23%)

Prairie View A&M dominated Northwestern State but almost lost this game due to turnovers. Two defensive touchdowns allowed the Demons to stay in this game, including a second-half pick-six by Cadillac Rhone. Outside of two explosive 40-yard touchdowns, Northwestern State struggled to move the ball offensively. Prairie View A&M suffocated Northwestern State's offense, allowing only 275 yards. Quarterback Cameron Peters also stepped up in his first start, throwing for 280 yards and touchdowns.

Mercer 31, Bethune-Cookman 2

Success Rate: Mercer (54%), Bethune-Cookman (17%)

Mercer's offense struggled early in this game, but the defense suffocated Bethune-Cookman's offense. The Wildcats produced only seven 'successful' plays on Saturday, averaging three yards per play and only 1.1 yards per carry. Mercer recorded 12 tackles for loss from 13 different players. Quarterback DJ Smith had another stellar performance with 237 yards and three touchdowns while running back Dwayne McGee put together his first 100-yard performance with the Bears.

Quick Hits:

• Montana State defeated Maine 41-24 on Saturday night. The performance was far more dominant than the final score suggests. The Bobcats led 38-7 at halftime and played backups for most of the second half. Montana State averaged over 16 yards per carry and 14 yards per pass attempt after scoring the fifth touchdown of the game.

• North Dakota State recorded an impressive 52-3 win over Tennessee State. The Bison had a success rate of 68% and scored a touchdown on every drive in the first half. Quarterback Cam Miller continued to play at a high level, recording 222 total yards and four touchdowns. The Bison were not as explosive but were highly effective on a down-to-down basis.

More FCS Football News

Buck Buchanan Award Power Rankings (Post-Week 2)
Week 3 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
FCS Football Recap: Week 2 Takeaways
Behind The Numbers: Week 1 FCS Football Review

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