Behind The Numbers: Week 4 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Sep 25, 2024

Jim Agnew (William & Mary Athletics)

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 4 FCS football action below.

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 4?

Jim Agnew (William & Mary Athletics)

William & Mary 34, Furman 24

Success Rate: William & Mary (37%), Furman (31%)

The final score makes this game look like an offensive battle, but the success rate tells a different story. Neither offense was efficient, but explosive plays led to scoring opportunities for each team. William & Mary thrived on the ground, while Furman created opportunities through the air. Furman quarterback Trey Hedden showcased his arm with three plays over 40 yards, but the Paladins struggled to find much success outside of those explosive plays. The Paladins averaged 2.8 yards per carry and only completed 50% of their passes. Despite only throwing for 98 yards, the Tribe rushed for 384 yards and over 7.0 yards per carry. Bronson Yoder led the team with 166 rushing yards, while quarterback Darius Wilson rushed for 155 yards, including an explosive 53-yard touchdown.

North Dakota State 41, Towson 24

Success Rate: North Dakota State (57%), Towson (45%)

Very few notable games fit into this category, but this matchup had some interesting statistical trends. The Bison continue to be ruthlessly efficient on offense, posting a 54% success rate over their first four games. The difference for the Bison has been the lack of defensive success, which ranks among the bottom half of the FCS. Towson found success rushing the ball and averaged 8.5 yards per carry, which has become a trend for the Bison defense. The Tigers also forced a negative play on 10% of North Dakota State's offensive snaps, ending the game with seven tackles for loss.

One notable trend this season has been North Dakota State's inability to generate explosive plays in the run game. The Bison built their dynasty on dominant play along the line of scrimmage, which led to explosive plays by their running backs. This weekend, the Bison failed to generate a run over 20 yards. The Bison also only recorded one tackle for loss, which plagued this defense against ETSU. The difference has been the elite play of quarterback Cam Miller, which has masked most of the issues for the Bison this season.

Montana 46, Western Carolina 35

Success Rate: Montana (48%), Western Carolina (37%)

One of the most notable takeaways from this game is that Montana's offense is playing much better than it did a season ago. Last season, Montana struggled to record a success rate above 40%, but through the first four games, Montana has a success rate of 48%. The improvement in the rushing attack has been the key, as the Grizzlies are averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Montana's offensive line is the catalyst here, which has helped Eli Gillman average almost 10 yards per carry.

This weekend's win over Western Carolina was the perfect example of these improvements. Despite an early 17-0 deficit, Montana scored 24 unanswered points between the second and fourth quarters. The Grizzlies averaged 7.3 yards per carry, led by Eli Gillman, who recorded 175 yards on only 14 carries. Western Carolina quarterback Cole Gonzales played his best game of the season. His improved play helped the Catamounts average over 6.0 yards per play. The defense also produced seven tackles for loss, which will be essential for this team competing for the SoCon title this season.

SEMO 38, Southern Illinois 21

Success Rate: SEMO (48%), Southern Illinois (37%)

SEMO was victorious in the War for the Wheel over Southern Illinois, which has propelled the Redhawks into Top 10 consideration. The Redhawks recorded almost 450 yards and averaged nearly 7.0 yards per play while posting a 48% success rate against a talented Southern Illinois defense. Quarterback Paxton DeLaurent continues to prove he is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns. Freshman sensation Payton Brown led the Redhawks with 124 rushing yards on 18 carries.

The Salukis failed to find any success on the ground, only rushing for 62 yards on 30 carries. The Redhawks also forced seven tackles for loss, including 3.5 from defensive end McCoy Casey. Quarterback Hunter Simmons was solid through the air, but the Salukis missed DJ Williams' athleticism this weekend.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Incarnate Word Athletics

Idaho 27, Abilene Christian 24

Success Rate: Idaho (36%), Abilene Christian (44%)

This was one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. The analytics suggest the Wildcats outplayed the Vandals, but this was a case of two halves. Idaho dominated this game early, building a 27-3 lead, and the Wildcats ended the game on a 21-0 run after the Vandals seemed to take their foot off the gas. The bigger storyline in this game was Idaho's lack of offensive production outside of a few explosive plays. Jack Wagner only completed 51% of his passes, but two explosive plays led to Idaho scoring opportunities. It was a solid performance from the Vandals, but this team will need to be more efficient if they expect to compete for the Big Sky title.

Grambling State 41, Jackson State 20

Success Rate: Grambling State (31%), Jackson State (36%)

Grambling State is either one of the luckiest teams in the nation or has one of the stingiest defenses in recent memory. After forcing six turnovers against Texas A&M-Commerce, the Tigers forced another five turnovers in a win over Jackson State. Grambling State scored two defensive touchdowns and 24 points off Jackson State turnovers. Jackson State averaged 7.3 yards per play, compared to Grambling State's 4.0 yards, while winning the success rate battle. Jackson State was also penalized 11 times, which played a massive factor in Grambling State's upset win.

Incarnate Word 38, Northern Arizona 14

Success Rate: Incarnate Word (42%), Northern Arizona (43%)

Northern Arizona lost this game by 24 points despite being inside Incarnate Word territory on eight drives. The Lumberjacks failed to score on six of their eight drives inside UIW territory, including four drives that ended in a turnover on downs. The Incarnate Word defense found ways to force turnovers and make stops when it mattered, leading to an impressive out-of-conference victory. The Cardinals forced eight tackles for loss, led by Mister Williams with three. The rushing attack rebounded, led by Dekalon Taylor with 184 yards and two touchdowns.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 4?

Kelly Gorham (Montana State Athletics)

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

Montana State 52, Mercyhurst 13

Success Rate: Montana State (70%), Mercyhurst (23%)

This was one of the most lopsided results of the weekend. Montana State averaged 9.0 yards per play and amassed over 500 yards of total offense. The Bobcats were balanced, recording 246 passing yards and 256 rushing yards. Quarterback Tommy Mellott continues to have a solid season through the air, completing 71% of his passes for 715 yards and seven touchdowns.

Central Arkansas 56, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17

Success Rate: Central Arkansas (72%), UAPB (30%)

The Bears did whatever they wanted offensively, posting the highest offensive success rate of the weekend. ShunDerrick Powell was incredible again, recording 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 11 carries. The best sign for the Central Arkansas offense was the success through the air. Quarterback Will McElvain completed 18-of-21 attempts for 235 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Illinois State 38, Eastern Illinois 7

Success Rate: Illinois State (59%), Eastern Illinois (39%)

Illinois State continues to produce offensively despite multiple injuries to key players. The Redbirds have one of the highest success rates this season, only trailing North Dakota State, Montana State, and Villanova. Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse continues to improve, completing 17-of-22 attempts for 228 passing yards and three touchdowns. Running back Wenkers Wright has kept the rushing attack alive, rushing for 150 yards on 25 carries against the Panthers.

South Dakota State 41, Southeastern Louisiana 0

Success Rate: SDSU (46%), SLU (25%)

Despite the lack of production from the passing game, South Dakota State has continued to dominate opponents. The Jackrabbits recorded over 340 rushing yards and averaged nearly 10.0 yards per carry. Kirby Vorhees had a breakout performance with 179 rushing yards, including an explosive 80-yard touchdown run. Defensively, the Jackrabbits held the Lions to under 3.0 yards per play and a success rate of only 25%. South Dakota State generated 11 tackles for loss, forcing a negative play on 17% of Southeastern Louisiana's offensive snaps.

Quick Hits:

• Nicholls State had an impressive performance in a 66-0 win over Mississippi Valley State. The Colonels forced six interceptions and held the Delta Devils to -7 rushing yards. Nicholls posted a success rate of 67%, while holding Mississippi Valley State to a success rate of only 13%. The Colonels finished the game with 455 rushing yards, averaging over 8.0 yards per carry.

• UC Davis put together a dominant defensive performance, holding Utah Tech to a success rate of only 23%. The Aggies held the Trailblazers to only 223 yards of total offense and 1-of-11 on third down attempts. UC Davis failed to dominate offensively, only posting a success rate of 42% against a struggling Utah Tech defense.

More FCS Football News

Week 5 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 5 Ballot
FCS Football Recap: Week 4 Takeaways
Week 4 FCS Football Top 25 Scoreboard
Behind The Numbers: Week 3 FCS Football Review

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