Behind The Numbers: Week 8 FCS Football Review

Timothy Rosario | Oct 22, 2024

Maine wide receiver Montigo Moss / Maine Athletics

After each week of the 2024 FCS football season, we will take you behind the numbers on some of the most important games of the week. We will give you some of the most significant outliers compared to Success Rate each week. We also take a look at some of the most interesting stats from across the nation throughout the season.

Success Rate is a statistic that tracks how often a team is ‘successful’ on a down-to-down basis. It looks at how a team consistently performs. The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We want to compare these statistics to the results because chaotic things happen in college football. Weird turnovers, excessive penalties, and lucky plays can all skew the perception of a game and make the final score a poor indicator of overall performance. Success rate is a highly effective predictive measure for how a team will play in the future, rather than just evaluating the box score.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend’s Week 8 FCS football action below. Our special edition of 'Behind The Numbers' for the North Dakota State-South Dakota State matchup is linked below.

Behind The Numbers: NDSU Upsets SDSU In Dakota Marker

Which Games Were The Most Competitive In Week 8?

Southeastern Louisiana wide receiver Darius Lewis / Randy Bergeron (SLU Athletics)

Rhode Island 26, New Hampshire 9

Success Rate: Rhode Island (36%), New Hampshire (33%)

Rhode Island's defense was the difference in this battle of two ranked CAA programs. The defense scored nine points and forced two turnovers, including a defensive touchdown by defensive back Freddie Camp. New Hampshire was held to 0.8 yards per carry and only 3.5 yards per play. Rhode Island set the tone with a tackle-for-loss rate of 18%, recording 12 tackles for loss and four sacks. Rhode Island was not great offensively, but running back Malik Grant offered consistent production on the ground.

SEMO 26, Charleston Southern 13

Success Rate: SEMO (35%), Charleston Southern (33%)

SEMO improved to 7-0 against the FCS and remained undefeated in Big South-OVC play. The Redhawks have continued to find ways to win but have quietly struggled offensively over the past few weeks. SEMO's offense only managed 4.9 yards per play and a 35% success rate, which started with the lack of production from the rushing attack. Injuries have plagued the running back room, which averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Paxton DeLaurent had another stellar performance with 335 passing yards. The Redhawks need to find more balance offensively if they want to be a factor in the postseason.

Southeastern Louisiana 24, Stephen F. Austin 23

Success Rate: SLU (50%), SFA (42%)

Southeastern Louisiana picked up a huge Southland victory over Stephen F. Austin, moving to 3-0 in conference play. The Lions had the advantage in success rate, but both teams averaged 5.1 yards per play. The most significant difference in this game was red zone success rate. Southeastern Louisiana scored touchdowns on three red zone trips while Stephen F. Austin struggled to find the endzone. The Lumberjacks were inside the 30-yard line five times but only scored two touchdowns. The Lions won the game with a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, capped by Eli Sawyer's touchdown pass to wide receiver Darius Lewis.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Samford quarterback Quincy Crittendon / Samford Athletics

Samford 55, Mercer 35

Success Rate: Samford (37%), Mercer (38%)

Mercer's undefeated season ended in a blowout loss to Samford this weekend. The Bears only allowed 46 points in their first six games of the season but allowed 55 points to the Bulldogs. Samford stormed out to a 28-0 lead with 8:15 remaining in the first quarter despite only running 10 plays. The Bulldogs scored on drives of 30, 15, and 26 yards after a shanked punt and two Mercer turnovers. Mercer's defense only allowed 14 points for the remainder of the game, holding the Bulldogs scoreless in the second half.

The Bears battled back in the second half, but five turnovers were too much to overcome. The Bulldogs scored two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter, which put the game out of reach for Mercer. Samford struggled to establish the run, posting 39 rushing yards and averaging 1.1 yards per carry. Quarterback Quincy Crittendon carried the offense, throwing for 378 passing yards and four touchdowns. He completed five passes of 20 yards or more, including a 77-yard touchdown to Iaan Cousin.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 8?

Jackson State quarterback Jacobian Morgan / Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

* Games against Division II opponents were excluded

Montana State 44, Portland State 14

Success Rate: Montana State (65%), Portland State (26%)

Montana State continues to be one of the most dominant teams in the nation. Following the Bobcats' win over Portland State, Montana State has the biggest net success rate of any team in the FCS. The Bobcats have averaged an offensive success rate of 55.8% (No. 1 nationally) and a defensive success rate of 30.11% (No. 2 nationally).

The Bobcats led the Vikings 35-0 at halftime, averaging 11.9 yards per play. Montana State recorded 607 yards of total offense, led by Tommy Mellott with 239 passing yards and three touchdowns. Running back Scottre Humphrey contributed 160 rushing yards, continuing his stellar season for the Bobcats. Montana State suffocated Portland State's offense, holding the Vikings to only 235 total yards.

Maine 35, Villanova 7

Success Rate: Maine (50%), Villanova (29%)

The warning signs were there with Villanova, who failed to impress over the first seven games of the season. The Wildcats turned the ball over four times and struggled to find any offensive consistency. Offensively, Villanova was limited to 3.1 yards per play and fell behind 35-0 before a late touchdown. Quarterback Carter Peevy had an outstanding performance, completing 16-of-18 attempts for 173 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Jackson State 35, Florida A&M 21

Success Rate: Jackson State (47%), Florida A&M (34%)

Jackson State took control of the SWAC East with a huge win over Florida A&M. Despite four turnovers, the Tigers dominated this game behind a suffocating defensive performance. Florida A&M was held scoreless in the second half as Jackson State's defensive line took the game over. Defensive linemen Tru Thompson, Phillip Webb, Joshua Nobles, and Jeremiah Williams combined for 24 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Webb also had the game-winning defensive touchdown. Running back Irv Mulligan led the Tigers with 139 rushing yards, averaging 7.7 yards per carry.

Quick Hits:

• South Dakota defeated Youngstown State 27-17 this weekend, but the game was not as close as the final score suggests. The Penguins scored touchdowns on its first two drives but failed to find the end zone again. South Dakota dominated the success rate battle (51%-38%), averaging 7.8 yards per play. South Dakota's offense only ran 53 plays, compared to 69 for Youngstown State, which made this game look much more competitive than it was.

• UC Davis seems to be flying under the radar, but the Aggies' have been spectacular on offense over the past few games. The Aggies recorded 549 total yards and 8.1 yards per play against Eastern Washington. In the past four games, Miles Hastings has completed 74% of his passes with 14 passing touchdowns and one interception.

• Here are some other notable success rates from Week 8:
  - North Dakota (50%), Northern Iowa (28%)
  - Monmouth (58%), Bryant (29%)
  - Stony Brook (58%), Towson (45%)
  - Western Carolina (47%), Furman (24%)

More FCS Football News

FCS Football Recap: Week 8 Takeaways
FCS Football Top 25: Zach McKinnell's Week 9 Ballot
Week 8 FCS Football Top 25 Scoreboard
FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 15 (Week 8)

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