Week 10 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

Zachary McKinnell | 3 Hours Ago

Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig / Harvard Athletics

We preview and make our official predictions for the top FCS games on the Week 10 slate right here. You can find more information on the biggest storylines and games each week on our preview show.

2024 Prediction Record: 114-28
2022-23 Record: 207-75

No. 23 ETSU at No. 12 Mercer

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

The SoCon race features four teams with one loss in conference play, including both teams in this crucial conference game. Mercer rebounded from an upset loss to Samford with another ranked win over Western Carolina. ETSU will look to extend their winning streak to three games after back-to-back wins over Samford and Wofford.

This game will be determined by ETSU's ability to establish the run, which is the offense's identity. The Buccaneers lead the SoCon in rushing offense, averaging 218.5 yards per game. Bryson Irby leads the team with 582 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Despite all the success for the Bucs, Mercer's defense is playing at an elite level against the run. The Bears rank No. 1 nationally in rushing defense, holding opponents to 59.5 yards per game and 2.1 yards per carry. Mercer has recorded 62 tackles for loss and 28 sacks, ranking Top 3 nationally at the FCS level.

ETSU quarterback Jaylen King is the x-factor this weekend. King has displayed his playmaking ability with 408 rushing yards and five touchdowns, but his performance through the air has been inconsistent. He is completing 53.1% of his passes for 1,323 yards, eight touchdowns, and nine interceptions.

There is some concern about Mercer's offense due to the uncertainty at quarterback, but the Bears showed their potential without DJ Smith in the comeback win. This is a tough matchup for ETSU due to Mercer's ability to make the offense one-dimensional. Can King make enough plays to win on the road? That's a massive question mark for me and the main reason Mercer should escape with another ranked win this weekend.

Prediction: Mercer (24-17)

No. 2 Montana State at Eastern Washington

Kickoff: 3 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Montana State has been the most dominant team at the FCS level, outscoring FCS opponents 298-99 this season. The Bobcats lead the Big Sky in total defense, scoring defense, scoring offense, and total offense.

Quarterback Tommy Mellott has taken his game to the next level, leading the nation in passing efficiency despite only playing an average of 2.9 quarters per game. He has completed 70% of his passes for 1,442 passing yards and 17 passing touchdowns while rushing for 421 yards and seven touchdowns. His playmaking ability will test an Eastern Washington defense that ranks No. 11 in the Big Sky for total defense, allowing 484.5 yards per game.

Eastern Washington is desperate for a victory after losing six games by ten points or less, including four games by seven or less. The Eagles have found success offensively, but the defense has struggled to limit explosive plays.

Wide receiver Efton Chism III is a matchup nightmare on the outside, leading the Eagles with 864 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He is the No. 1 target for quarterback Kekoa Visperas, who is having an outstanding year with 13 passing touchdowns and only one interception.

The Eagles will face the difficult task of moving the ball against a Montana State defense that ranks No. 4 nationally in total defense. The matchup to watch is Eastern Washington's passing attack against Montana State's secondary. The Bobcats are holding opponents to 179.5 passing yards per game and 5.72 yards per attempt.

Eastern Washington has shown the ability to keep games competitive against talented opponents, but I think Montana State is on a different level this season. The Bobcats should be able to establish the run, wearing down the Eastern Washington defense to pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Montana State (52-24)

Harvard at No. 22 Dartmouth

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

Dartmouth holds the nation's longest winning streak and is one of only two undefeated FCS programs. The Big Green continues finding ways to win, defeating their past five opponents by four points or less.

It all starts with the rushing attack, which ranks No. 1 in the Ivy League with 187.5 yards per game. Q Jones leads the Big Green with 556 rushing yards and three touchdowns, including a season-high 182 rushing yards last weekend. It will be an intriguing matchup as Harvard leads the conference in rushing defense, allowing 108.3 yards per game. Defensive lineman Jacob Psyk has recorded 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.

Quarterback Jaden Craig has been the catalyst behind Harvard's four consecutive wins, playing his way into the Walter Payton Award conversation. Craig has recorded 1,517 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, and only two interceptions. Wide receiver Cooper Barkate leads the Crimson with 571 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.

Dartmouth's defense has found success in generating negative plays, forcing 39 tackles for loss and 13 sacks this season. Ejike Adele and Josiah Green anchor one of the most talented defensive lines in the Ivy League, posting 16 combined tackles for loss and six sacks.

Harvard has won 16 of the past 19 games between these programs, including 14 consecutive wins from 2004-17. The Crimson have found their rhythm since an early upset loss to Brown, while Dartmouth keeps escaping with wins. I expect Harvard's defense to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and Craig to make enough plays to pull off the upset victory.

Prediction: Harvard (24-20)

No. 18 Chattanooga at Western Carolina

Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. CT (ESPN+)

This game may be a must-win situation for both teams to keep their postseason hopes alive. Western Carolina has played an extremely difficult schedule but fell to 4-4 overall after a loss to Mercer and cannot afford another loss. Chattanooga is 5-1 against the FCS, but a 5-3 overall record has some people overlooking the Mocs.

Chattanooga struggled to run the ball early this season, but Reggie Davis's emergence has unlocked a new gear for this offense. Davis leads the Mocs with 660 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Mocs have averaged 189.4 rushing yards per game over the past five games. Western Carolina has struggled to stop the run, allowing over 200 yards per game this season.

Quarterback Cole Gonzales is playing his best football right now, throwing for over 1,000 yards in the past two games. After throwing seven interceptions in the first five games, Gonzales has thrown eight touchdowns with zero turnovers in the past three. De'Andre Tamarez and Zion Booker have emerged as real threats on the outside, combining for 664 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

The Mocs have held their five conference opponents to 244.4 yards and 9.0 points per game. It starts with the secondary, which has forced 14 interceptions, led by Reuben Lowery III with 40 total tackles and two interceptions. In five conference games, the Mocs have held opponents to 120.8 passing yards per game. The battle between the explosive passing attack of Western Carolina and the stingy secondary of Chattanooga will be a massive matchup to watch.

I expect this to be another competitive matchup, but I trust Chattanooga's defense to control the game. The Mocs should win the line of scrimmage, while a balanced offensive attack will give the Catamounts problems down the stretch.

Prediction: Chattanooga (34-31)

Other Week 10 FCS Predictions:

No. 1 North Dakota State 42, Northern Iowa 20
No. 7 Tarleton State 38, Eastern Kentucky 21
No. 9 Incarnate Word 45, Houston Christian 17
No. 13 Villanova 31, Hampton 21
No. 14 Rhode Island 27, Monmouth 23
No. 15 North Dakota 34, Indiana State 28
No. 16 Richmond 27, Towson 20
No. 20 Stony Brook 34, Bryant 13
No. 21 Illinois State 38, Youngstown State 30

More FCS Football News

Week 10 FCS Football Schedule, How To Watch
FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 30 (Week 10)
FCS Playoff Committee Reveals Top 10 Ranking
Behind The Numbers: Week 9 FCS Football Review
FCS Football Recap: Week 9 Takeaways

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