FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 3 South Dakota State

Zachary McKinnell | Dec 12, 2024

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

No. 6 Incarnate Word travels to No. 3 South Dakota State in the quarterfinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Dec. 14 at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN. The Jackrabbits defeated the Cardinals 45-24 in Week 2.

The winner will advance to the semifinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs, where they will face the winner of No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 170-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Incarnate Word (11-2) @ South Dakota State (11-2)

Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: South Dakota State (-19)
Series History: South Dakota State leads 1-0

Key Players: South Dakota State

Mark Gronowski (QB): 185-for-296 (62.5%), 2,341 Passing Yards, 19 Passing TDs, 6 INTs, 313 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TDs

Amar Johnson (RB): 160 Carries, 1,013 Rushing Yards, 6.3 YPC, 13 Rushing TDs

Griffin Wilde (WR): 63 Receptions, 1,014 Receiving Yards, 16.1 YPC, 10 Receiving TDs

Adam Bock (LB): 83 Total Tackles, 8 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 INTs, 4 QBHs

Tucker Large (DB): 22 Total Tackles, 3 INTs, 4 PBUs

Key Players: Incarnate Word

Zach Calzada (QB): 310-for-477 (64.99%), 3,533 Passing Yards, 34 Passing TDs, 8 INTs, 4 Rushing TDs

Jalen Walthall (WR): 76 Receptions, 1,224 Receiving Yards, 16.1 YPC, 14 Receiving TDs

Roy Alexander (WR): 87 Receptions, 1,016 Receiving Yards, 11.7 YPC, 12 Receiving TDs

Dune Smith (LB): 76 Total Tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 Sacks, 1 INT, 3 QBHs

Mister Williams (LB): 75 Total Tackles, 13 TFLs, 4 Sacks, 1 INT, 3PBUs, 11 QBHs, 5 FFs

Incarnate Word put some pressure on South Dakota State in the first matchup, but the Jackrabbits pulled away in the second half. These teams have improved since that Week 2 matchup, but multiple key areas defined that game. South Dakota State converted on 10-of-13 third-down attempts and kept Incarnate Word out of the end zone on numerous red zone opportunities. The Cardinals will need to be more efficient in the red zone this weekend while finding ways to get off the field on third downs.

Quarterback Mark Gronowski is starting to heat up for the Jackrabbits, throwing nearly 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns with zero turnovers. After some unfortunate injuries, Griffin Wilde has been forced to carry the wide receiver room. Wilde leads the Jackrabbits with 1,014 receiving yards and ten touchdowns. The concern is that South Dakota State does not have another pass catcher with over 200 receiving yards this season.

The bigger issue is that Incarnate Word allowed 230 rushing yards in the first matchup. South Dakota State's rushing attack has continued to thrive, topping the 200-yard mark in four of the past five games. Amar Johnson leads the Jackrabbits with 1,013 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, while Angel Johnson is finding his rhythm after an injury earlier this season. Incarnate Word has held four of its past five opponents under 100 rushing yards, making this one of the most important matchups of the weekend.

Incarnate Word struggled to establish the run earlier this season against South Dakota State. Luckily, quarterback Zach Calzada had one of his best performances of the season. He has completed 65% of his passes for 3,533 passing yards, 34 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The Cardinals feature two of the best wide receivers in the nation, which gave the Jackrabbits problems earlier this season. Jalen Walthall and Roy Alexander have combined for over 2,000 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns.

Since giving up 350 passing yards against Incarnate Word, South Dakota State's defense has held ten opponents under 200 passing yards and has the second-highest coverage grade in the nation. Tucker Large missed the first game but has made a huge impact since his return from injury, leading the Jackrabbits with three interceptions.

The biggest development for South Dakota State has been the emergence of multiple playmakers along the defensive line. Defensive tackle Bryce Hawthorne has recorded 3.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in the past two games. Combined with an elite linebacker core led by Adam Bock and Caleb Francel, the Jackrabbits have generated negative plays on 10.2% of all defensive snaps.

The x-factor in this game is Incarnate Word's defense, which is one of the most overlooked units in the nation. The Cardinals have excelled in creating negative plays and generating turnovers, forcing a turnover on 3.3% of all defensive snaps. It all starts with Dune Smith and Mister Williams, two of the most athletic linebackers in the FCS. The duo has combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and ten sacks. One of the biggest keys for Incarnate Word this weekend will be to win the turnover battle and keep South Dakota State behind the chains, which many teams have failed to do over the past two seasons.

Incarnate Word's offense has the individual talent to win 1-on-1 matchups, but the problem has been consistency. The Cardinals have experienced lulls throughout multiple games, which could be the difference between an upset and another loss to the Jackrabbits. South Dakota State is playing at a national championship level right now. I expect the Jackrabbits to utilize their physical rushing attack to wear down the Incarnate Word defense and advance to the semifinals for the fifth consecutive season.

Prediction: South Dakota State (42-21)

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