FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State

North Dakota State running back Barika Kpeenu
North Dakota State running back Barika Kpeenu / Zachary Lucy (NDSU Athletics)

No. 7 Mercer travels to No. 2 North Dakota State in the quarterfinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

The winner will advance to the semifinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs, where they will face the winner of No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 3 South Dakota State.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 170-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Mercer (11-2) @ North Dakota State (11-2)

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (ABC)
Line: North Dakota State (-20)
Series History: First Meeting

Key Players: North Dakota State

Cam Miller (QB): 210-for-285 (73.7%), 2,614 Passing Yards, 26 Passing TDs, 2 INTs, 377 Rushing Yards, 8 Rushing TDs

CharMar Brown (RB): 205 Carries, 1,023 Rushing Yards, 5.0 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Bryce Lance (WR): 55 Receptions, 766 Receiving Yards, 13.93 YPC, 11 Receiving TDs

Logan Kopp (LB): 55 Total Tackles, 4 TFLs, 2 Sacks, 3 INTs, 6 PBUs, 1 Forced Fumble

Eli Mostaert (DL): 49 Total Tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 Sacks, 4 QBHs

Key Players: Mercer

Dwayne McGee (RB): 216 Carries, 1,132 Rushing Yards, 5.2 YPC, 8 Rushing TDs

Brayden Manley (DL): 35 Total Tackles, 16.5 TFLs, 8.5 Sacks, 10 QBHs

TJ Moore (DB): 56 Total Tackles, 1 TFL, 7 INTs, 13 PBUs, 2 QBHs

Arias Nash (DL): 50 Total Tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 8 Sacks, 2 PBUs, 13 QBHs

Andrew Zock (DL): 32 Total Tackles, 13.5 TFLs, 6.5 Sacks, 2 PBUs, 15 QBHs

Mercer has an opportunity to secure its first semifinal appearance in program history this weekend. The Bears have leaned on one of the most dominant defenses in the nation but will face their toughest test of the season. It starts with the rushing defense, which has held opponents to 2.3 yards per carry. The unit is creating negative plays on 12.5% of all defensive snaps and generating pressure on over 47% of dropbacks. Arias Nash and Brayden Manely have combined for 27 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks, while Freshman All-American Andrew Zock can create problems off the edge.

North Dakota State has struggled to create explosive plays on the ground but has still attempted to wear down opposing defenses with a physical offensive attack. CharMar Brown won the Jerry Rice Award after leading the Bison with 1,023 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Barika Kpeenu has started to find his rhythm, averaging over six yards per carry this season.

The concern for Mercer's defense is explosive plays over the top. The Bears allow over 7.1 yards per pass attempt and rely on turnovers to stop opposing offenses. Mercer is creating turnovers on 3.84% of all defensive snaps, which leads the nation. The problem is that North Dakota State has only turned the ball over four times this season, leading the country with a 0.47% turnover rate. It will be essential for Mercer to create turnovers this weekend, which will be a challenge against an efficient North Dakota State offense.

Quarterback Cam Miller is playing the best football of his career, completing 74% of his passes for 2,614 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and only two interceptions. There was a question mark at wide receiver entering the season, but the emergence of Bryce Lance has helped the Bison passing attack thrive. Lance leads the Bison with 55 receptions for 766 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.

The biggest question in this game is Mercer's offense, which has struggled at times this season. North Dakota State's defense has been susceptible to allowing explosive plays, but the Bison appear to match up well against Mercer. Running back Dwayne McGee is the focal point, leading the Bears with 1,132 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

Mercer's offensive line must have its best game of the season against an experienced North Dakota State front seven. The Bears allow a negative play on 11% of all snaps while ranking last among postseason teams in pressure rate. Defensive tackle Eli Mostaert is a force on the interior of the defensive line, leading the Bison with 11.5 tackles for loss and six sacks. The Bears will have to find a way to establish the run while limiting turnovers to pull off the upset this weekend.

I trust Mercer to make things difficult for the North Dakota State rushing attack in this game. My concern is that Cam Miller will make too many plays down the stretch for the Bears to have a chance of an upset. I see Mercer's lack of offensive consistency leading to defensive fatigue, allowing North Dakota State to advance to the semifinals for the fourth consecutive season.

Prediction: North Dakota State (34-10)

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Zachary McKinnell
ZACHARY MCKINNELL

Zach McKinnell is the Founder and Senior Editor of FCS Football Central. He is also a columnist for HERO Sports and a contributor for Athlon Sports. In 2022, he became an official voter in the FCS Stats Perform Top-25. He is a former contributor for Vols Wire, part of the USA TODAY Sports Network, and Fly War Eagle on FanSided. Zach graduated from Auburn University in 2018.