FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview & Prediction: No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State

Zachary McKinnell | 6 Hours Ago

Zachary Lucy (NDSU Athletics)

No. 3 South Dakota State travels to No. 2 North Dakota State in the semifinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 11 a.m. CT on ABC. The Bison defeated the Jackrabbits 13-9 in Week 8.

The winner will advance to the FCS National Championship game, where they will face the winner of No. 4 South Dakota at No. 1 Montana State.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 174-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

South Dakota State (12-2) @ North Dakota State (12-2)

Kickoff: 11:00 a.m. CT (ABC)
Line: South Dakota State (-3)
Series History: North Dakota State leads 64-47-5

Key Players: North Dakota State

Cam Miller (QB): 226-for-310 (72.9%), 2,873 Passing Yards, 28 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 417 Rushing Yards, 9 Rushing TDs

CharMar Brown (RB): 216 Carries, 1,081 Rushing Yards, 5.0 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Bryce Lance (WR): 60 Receptions, 839 Receiving Yards, 13.98 YPC, 13 Receiving TDs

Logan Kopp (LB): 59 Total Tackles, 6 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 3 INTs, 6 PBUs, 1 FF

Eli Mostaert (DL): 53 Total Tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 6 Sacks, 4 QBHs

Key Players: South Dakota State

Mark Gronowski (QB): 192-for-312 (61.5%), 2,515 Passing Yards, 22 Passing TDs, 7 INTs, 330 Rushing Yards, 9 Rushing TDs

Amar Johnson (RB): 178 Carries, 1,145 Rushing Yards, 6.4 YPC, 13 Rushing TDs

Griffin Wilde (WR): 66 Receptions, 1,081 Receiving Yards, 16.4 YPC, 12 Receiving TDs

Adam Bock (LB): 94 Total Tackles, 8 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 INTs, 4 QBHs, 1 FR

Tucker Large (DB): 30 Total Tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INTs, 4 PBUs, 1 FR

The stage is set for another epic battle in one of the most storied rivalries in FCS football. North Dakota State ended a five-game losing streak to South Dakota State earlier this season, but a trip to the FCS national championship is on the line this weekend.

South Dakota State's defense continues to impress, holding opponents to 4.5 yards per play and only 2.9 yards per carry. The Jackrabbits are led by one of the best linebacker duos in the nation: Adam Bock and Caleb Francl. The defensive line has improved throughout the season, helping the Jackrabbits force a negative play on almost 10% of all defensive snaps. In the first matchup, South Dakota State failed to generate much pressure on Miller and only recorded two tackles for loss. It will be important for the Jackrabbits to keep the North Dakota State offense behind the chains.

North Dakota State could not find any consistency on the ground, but Cam Miller delivered in the biggest moments of the first matchup. He led a 92-yard game-winning touchdown drive and connected with RaJa Nelson for two key touchdowns. The Jackrabbits will have to find a way to make Miller uncomfortable in the pocket and limit his ability to make plays outside the pocket. Miller has completed 72.9% of his passes and ranks No. 2 nationally in passing efficiency.

The inefficiency of South Dakota State's passing attack was one of the biggest differences in October's matchup. The Jackrabbits have found their rhythm through the air, passing for 200 or more yards in three of their past four games. In the past three games, Mark Gronowski has thrown for over 500 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Bison must limit wide receiver Griffin Wilde, who has recorded 181 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the first two playoff games.

The Bison defensive line made a massive impact in the first game, generating pressure on over 40% of dropbacks. North Dakota State's pressure impacted Gronowski's ability to push the ball downfield, which is something to watch this weekend. The trend has continued for the Bison, who enter this weekend with the highest pressure rate in the postseason. Defensive tackle Eli Mostaert leads the Bison with 11.5 tackles for loss and six sacks.

This game may be decided by which team can establish the run, which will be a challenge for both offenses. North Dakota State's CharMar Brown has been a workhorse for the Bison, leading the team with 1,081 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. South Dakota State enters the game with a more explosive rushing attack, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Amar Johnson leads the Jackrabbits with 1,145 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, but freshman Kirby Vorhees could be a player to watch due to his physical running style.

In the first matchup, I picked the Bison because they appeared to have all the momentum. However, things have changed, as the Jackrabbits have continued to improve down the stretch and seem to be playing their best football. The improvement of the passing attack and explosiveness of the offense will be the difference here as Mark Gronowksi leads the Jackrabbits to their third consecutive national championship appearance.

Prediction: South Dakota State (27-24)

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