FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota

Zachary McKinnell | 15 Hours Ago

Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 5 UC Davis travels to No. 4 South Dakota in the quarterfinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Dec. 14 at 2 p.m. CT on ESPN+.

The winner will advance to the semifinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs, where they will travel to face No. 1 Montana State on Dec. 21 at 2:30 p.m. CT.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 170-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

UC Davis (11-2) @ South Dakota (10-2)

Kickoff: 2 p.m. CT (ESPN+)
Line: South Dakota (-5.5)
Series History: South Dakota leads 4-2

Key Players: South Dakota

Aidan Bouman (QB): 180-for-261 (68.9%), 2,470 Passing Yards, 16 Passing TDs, 2 INTs

Charles Pierre Jr. (RB): 151 Carries, 1,153 Rushing Yards, 7.6 YPC, 15 Rushing TDs

Travis Theis (RB): 155 Carries, 976 Rushing Yards, 6.3 YPC, 16 Rushing TDs, 261 Receiving Yards

Mi'Quise Grace (DL): 58 Total Tackles, 18 TFLs, 9.5 Sacks, 9 QBHs, 2 FFs, 2 FRs

Dennis Shorter (DB): 63 Total Tackles, 1 TFL, 2 INTs, 10 PBUs, 2 FFs

Key Players: UC Davis

Miles Hastings (QB): 328-for-469 (69.9%), 4,148 Passing Yards, 35 Passing TDs, 8 INTs, 1 Rushing TD

Lan Larison (RB): 277 Carries, 1,425 Rushing Yards, 5.1 YPC, 17 Rushing TDs, 61 Receptions, 842 Receiving Yards, 6 Receiving TDs

David Meyer (LB): 113 Total Tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 0.5 Sacks, 4 INTs

Rex Connors (DB): 99 Total Tackles, 3 TFLs, 0.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 6 PBUs

Kavir Bains (DL): 74 Total Tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 2 INTs, 13 PBUs, 1 FF, 1 FR

This game has the recipe to be an instant classic. Both teams have efficient, explosive offenses that are led by some of the most dynamic offensive superstars we have at the FCS level. This game could be determined by which defense is able to make a key stop in the second half.

UC Davis has one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation, ranking No. 3 in the FCS with 330.6 passing yards per game. Miles Hastings is having the best season of his career, passing for over 4,100 yards and 35 touchdowns. South Dakota allowed 379 passing yards last week to Tarleton State, which could indicate another impressive game for Hastings.

The biggest x-factor for UC Davis is running back Lan Larison, who leads the nation in all-purpose yards. Larison leads the Aggies with 1,425 rushing yards, 842 receiving yards, and 23 total touchdowns. He is the most dynamic athlete at this level and will challenge the South Dakota defense in a multitude of ways.

The Coyotes will have to generate pressure and win one-on-one matchups on the outside. It starts with defensive end Mi'Quise Grace, who leads the defense with 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. South Dakota's defense is anchored by linebacker Gary Bryant III and Nate Ewell, who will be tested in space by Lan Larison and the multitude of weapons on UC Davis' offense.

South Dakota is led by one of the most efficient offenses in the FCS, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 9.57 yards per pass. The Coyotes will focus on establishing the run and then setting up deep shots downfield for quarterback Aidan Bouman. Bouman has been efficient this season, completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,470 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and two interceptions.

It all starts with a dynamic duo at running back, which has combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 31 rushing touchdowns. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis average over six yards per carry, which could be a problem for UC Davis' defense, which has struggled to generate negative plays. The Aggies rank last among playoff teams in tackle-for-loss rate but have excelled at limiting explosive plays through the air.

UC Davis has quietly put together some impressive defensive performances over the past few weeks. The Aggies have held four of their past six opponents under 150 rushing yards. Linebacker David Meyer leads the Aggies with 113 total tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and four interceptions. The secondary is led by two All-Conference contributors, Rex Connors and Kavir Bains.

The Aggies will succeed by getting their playmakers into space and winning one-on-one matchups. However, due to the balance on offense, I lean towards South Dakota. The physicality of South Dakota's rushing attack will help the Coyotes control the clock and wear down the UC Davis front seven late in the game.

Prediction: South Dakota (35-31)

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