2024 Missouri Valley Football Conference Preview

Zachary McKinnell, Timothy Rosario | Aug 8, 2024

Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

The MVFC has continued to dominate the subdivision, winning 11 of the past 13 FCS national championships. There are plenty of notable storylines surrounding the conference, including South Dakota State's quest for a three-peat and North Dakota State's mission to return to the top of the FCS.

Below are FCS Football Central's official MVFC predictions and a full preview of the MVFC ahead of the 2024 college football season.

Can South Dakota State Complete A Historic Three-Peat?

South Dakota State wide receiver Griffin Wilde / Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

South Dakota State just completed one of the best two-year runs of any Division I program we have ever seen. The Jackrabbits went a combined 29-1 from 2022-23 and were undefeated against the FCS. They won their four playoff games in 2023 by an incredible combined score of 146 to 15. In FCS history, only two programs have ever won three national titles in a row. Appalachian State from 2005-07, and North Dakota State did it twice, winning five consecutive titles from 2011-15 and another three consecutive from 2017-19. At the FBS level, it has only happened once, and that was Minnesota's run in the 1930s. The Jackrabbits have defeated the Bison in five straight matchups, including a 45-21 victory in Frisco in 2022. A third straight national title is the final piece that South Dakota State needs to cement a dynasty of its own.

The path to repeating was straightforward in 2023 for head coach Jimmy Rogers. However, next season will be the real test of Coach Rogers’ early head coaching career. The Jackrabbits only return three offensive starters and five defensive starters. South Dakota State loses two All-American offensive linemen, including Mason McCormick, who was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lose Isaiah Davis, who has been the best running back in the subdivision for two seasons. They also lose Jadon and Jaxon Janke, who have been the unquestioned leaders of the receiving core. They also bring back almost no experience at the tight end position, which is meaningful for a team that spends so much of its time in 12 personnel.

While the questions are much bigger in 2024, don’t expect this offense to fade to mediocrity. At the most important position, they still bring back Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski. Gronowski has continued to improve each season and is primed to be the first back-to-back winner of the Walter Payton since Jeremiah Briscoe in 2016-17. The running back room should be loaded again. Senior running back Amar Johnson is primed for a breakout season after several seasons as a rotational player behind Davis. The offensive line has reloaded, led by two of the best interior offensive linemen in the country, Gus Miller and Evan Beerntsen. The addition of former North Dakota guard Sam Hagen was a massive win for the Jackrabbits. The biggest question marks for this offense will be at offensive tackle and wide receiver. There are high expectations for breakout sophomore Griffin Wilde, who made some spectacular plays in 2023.

The defense must reload at multiple positions, but plenty of experienced contributors return. The secondary has the chance to be one of the best units in the nation next season, led by safeties Cale Reeder and Tucker Large. All-American Dalys Beanum returns as one of the best cornerbacks in the FCS. The Jacks will hope to get a healthy season out of All-American linebacker Adam Bock in 2024. The Jackrabbits will have to rely on stellar program development to replace hybrid linebacker Isaiah Stalbird and multiple key players on the defensive line. The Jacks do not have a defensive end with over 250 snaps of experience returning. While some questions need to be answered on the defensive side of the ball, expect this to be a top-ten FCS unit yet again.

A third national championship will be much tougher than winning back-to-back last season. Will head coach Jimmy Rogers and the staff prove their coaching mettle, extend their dominance over the Bison, and lift a third straight national championship trophy in Frisco? It wouldn’t be shocking. It would be another testament to the incredible culture and program South Dakota State has built over the past few seasons.

Will North Dakota State Reclaim Its Spot On The Throne?

North Dakota State quarterback Cam Miller / Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

After one of the most dominant runs in college football history, North Dakota State is looking to reclaim its spot on the throne. The Bison won nine national titles in an 11-year span but had to watch its biggest rival win back-to-back championships, including defeating the Bison in the 2023 FCS National Championship game. North Dakota State may have its most talented team since 2021, which has the Bison primed to make another run to Frisco in 2024.

The offense will be led by All-American quarterback Cam Miller, who posted a career-high 2,688 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns last season. Miller needs to continue to improve as a passer, which is critical for the Bison offense to reach its full potential next season. Cole Payton returns as a dynamic weapon, rushing for almost 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns in a reserve role over the past three seasons.

Running back will continue to be a strength despite the departure of TaMerik Williams. Barika Kpeenu could emerge as the next superstar in the backfield but suffered an injury during fall camp and may miss the start of the season. TK Marshall has over 50 games of experience, rushing for 1,013 yards and 12 touchdowns. A name to watch could be true freshman CharMar Brown, who signed with the Bison as the No. 1 running back in Nebraska.

The biggest question mark for the Bison will be at wide receiver, where no returning wide receiver had over 400 receiving yards last season. RaJa Nelson and Braylon Henderson have shown flashes of potential, but neither has shown the ability to be a true No. 1 wide receiver. Tight end Joe Stoffel may be the most reliable target in the passing game, posting 577 receiving yards and eight touchdowns over the past two seasons. This program built a dynasty by developing young talent at an extremely high level, which is going to be more important than ever in the wide receiver room in 2024.

Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball, including All-American safety Cole Wisniewski and several All-Conference contributors. Wisniewski led the nation with eight interceptions and was the highest-graded safety in the FCS last season. Defensive end Dylan Hendricks returns after a breakout season with 10.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. Linebacker Logan Kopp loaded the stat box last season, posting 85 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, three interceptions, and two forced fumbles.

North Dakota State finished No. 9 nationally in total defense but allowed over 5.4 yards per play, which ranked No. 45 in the FCS. The Bison fell short of the lofty defensive standards at crucial moments, including upset losses to South Dakota and North Dakota. The Bison have all the pieces to be an elite defensive unit next season, which could be a key piece in helping this program return to the top of the FCS.

Which Programs Are Primed To Emerge As Dark Horse Contenders?

Illinois State LB Amir Abdullah / Illinois State Athletics

North Dakota State and South Dakota State have dominated the MVFC, winning at least a share of the conference title in each season since 2010. Northern Iowa is the last program to win an outright conference title, while Illinois State is the only team to earn a share of the title in that span during a full season (2014-15). North Dakota and Missouri State also won a share during the shortened spring 2021 season. Is this the season we could see a dark horse emerge in the MVFC? Many would point to South Dakota, Southern Illinois, North Dakota, Northern Iowa, or Youngstown State as the best candidates.

Northern Iowa and North Dakota are expected to experience rebuilding seasons in 2024. Both programs lose experienced quarterbacks and have massive question marks at multiple key positions. The Panthers only return three defensive starters while also transitioning to the air raid on offense, which will create growing pains throughout next season. The Fighting Hawks only return four offensive starters, including having to replace multiple starters along the offensive line. The defense struggled last season, ranking No. 90 nationally in yards per play allowed.

Youngstown State made it back to the playoffs in 2023 before getting eliminated in the second round by Villanova. The Penguins will be led by an experienced offensive line and All-Conference running back Tyshon King, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. The biggest question will be at quarterback after Mitch Davidson's departure. This team's ceiling could be limited due to the massive defensive rebuild after the Penguins lost 12 of its top 13 tacklers from last season. Youngstown State signed multiple defensive transfers, but only a handful have played meaningful snaps at the collegiate level. Yale defensive back Dathan Hickey and Northern Colorado's Joe Brown are two additions that could emerge as key players.

Illinois State missed the playoffs last season but looks poised for a breakout season. The Redbirds finished 6-5 a season ago and lost four of those games by a combined eight points. They were also the only team in the conference outside of South Dakota State that ranked Top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive yards per play. Illinois State returns six offensive starters and 9 defensive starters, including plenty of experience along the offensive line and front seven. Running back Mason King rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2023, while wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz led the team with 933 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, the Redbirds will be led by All-American linebacker Amir Abdullah, who recorded 14 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.

Southern Illinois was only a few plays away from a quarterfinal run in 2023. The defense was statistically one of the best defenses in the nation, but the Salukis only return three starters next season. Safety Ubayd Steed and linebacker Colin Bohanek will look to have big seasons. Offensively, Southern Illinois only ranked No. 67 in yards per play and will be led by one of the most experienced offensive lines in the conference. Wide receiver Vinson Davis III also returns after leading the Salukis with 54 receptions and 659 receiving yards. Quarterback DJ Williams started at Murray State last season, and the Salukis added two instant impact wide receivers, Bradley Clark and Nah’shawn Hezekiah.

South Dakota will be the preseason favorite to sneak into the MVFC title race with North Dakota State and South Dakota State. The South Dakota offense ranked No. 12 in the FCS in yards per play and returns 10 starters from last season's unit. Quarterback Aidan Bouman, running back Travis Theis, wide receiver Carter Bell, and tight end JJ Galbreath all return for another season. South Dakota's defense ranked No. 40 in yards per play but returns only four starters. The Coyotes added five defensive transfers that saw significant playing time at their last school, including linebacker Nate Ewell, who was an NAIA All-American from Grandview. This program returns significant talent across the defensive line, led by defensive tackle duo Nick Gaes and Blake Holden. Defensive end Mi’Quise Grace had a breakout redshirt freshman season and will look to build on his production with more responsibility in 2024.

Top Returning Offensive Players:

Mark Gronowski (South Dakota State, QB)
2023 Stats: 68% comp, 3,058 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 402 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs

Mason King (Illinois State, RB)
2022 Stats: 150 carries, 983 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs, 6.6 YPC

Bo Belquist (North Dakota, WR)
2023 Stats: 66 receptions, 772 receiving yards, 6 receiving TDs, 11.7 YPC

JJ Galbreath (South Dakota, TE)
2023 Stats: 36 receptions, 579 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs, 16.1 YPC

Cam Miller (North Dakota State, QB)
2023 Stats: 72% comp, 2,688 passing yards, 19 passing TDs, 4 INTs, 629 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs

Tyshon King (Youngstown State, RB)
2023 Stats: 187 carries, 1,011 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, 5.4 YPC

Daniel Sobkowicz (Illinois State, WR)
2023 Stats: 68 receptions, 933 receiving yards, 10 receiving TDs, 13.7 YPC

Carter Bell (South Dakota, WR)
2023 Stats: 52 receptions, 908 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs, 17.5 YPC

Amar Johnson (South Dakota State, RB)
2023 Stats: 128 carries, 801 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 6.3 YPC

Vinson Davis III (Southern Illinois, WR)
2023 Stats: 54 receptions, 659 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs, 12.2 YPC

Top Returning Defensive Players:

Adam Bock (South Dakota State, LB)
2023 Stats: 65 total tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks

Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State, DB)
2023 Stats: 92 total tackles, 2 TFLs, 8 INTs, 13 PBUs, 1 fumble recovery

Nick Gaes (South Dakota, DL)
2023 Stats: 42 total tackles, 10 TFLs, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Amir Abdullah (Illinois State, LB)
2023 Stats: 64 total tackles, 14 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 2 forced fumbles

Maddix Blackwell (Indiana State, DB)
2023 Stats: 107 total tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 5 PBUs, 2 forced fumbles

P.J. Hall (Missouri State, DB)
2023 Stats: 62 total tackles, 2 INTs, 9 PBUs, 1 forced fumble

Dylan Hendricks (North Dakota State, DE)
2023 Stats: 40 total tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 3 PBUs, 1 forced fumble

Tucker Large (South Dakota State, DB)
2023 Stats: 49 total tackles, 1 TFL, 4 INTs, 13 PBUs

Garret Ollendieck (Indiana State, LB)
2023 Stats: 97 total tackles, 13 TFLs, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble

Dennis Shorter (South Dakota, DB)
2023 Stats: 97 total tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 1 INT, 7 PBUs, 2 forced fumbles

FCS Football Central's Predicted Order Of Finish:

1. North Dakota State
2. South Dakota State
3. South Dakota
4. Illinois State
T5. Youngstown State
T5. Southern Illinois
7. North Dakota
8. Missouri State
9. Northern Iowa
T10. Indiana State
T10. Murray State

More FCS Football News

2024 MEAC Football Preview
2024 FCS Football Central Preseason All-American Team
2024 CAA Football Preview
2024 Big South-OVC Football Preview